The Stock * Stuck * Suck * Report

The February 13 Report

2008-02-13T09:33:00.001-08:00

Advanced Happy Valentine's Day folks!

The stock market is about the future, and they've been telling us to have a grand and very red celebration for the Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day as early as January.

The volume for PSEi continues to be lackluster, and the ticker pace will bore you to sleep.

It's the attack of the basuras and they are making a comeback. Tread lightly!

I don't have much to report on because I've been juggling and multitasking so many things lately. All I can report on is that I was able to make a profitable day trade. OMG! Haha. I thought that would be an impossibility.

Good luck. Friday Madness (due to supposed rallies to take place) is going to leave an overhang. The Philippines should be run by children in the future. If these stupid people in politics are called adults, I think I'd rather be a child.

The February 8 Report

2008-02-08T02:47:00.001-08:00

The index managed to stay afloat at 3,241.13 or +17 points or half a percentage point (0.56%) gain.

Volume remained Motorola RZR thin, with only 852,094,262, with value only at 1,191,067,00.

Total trades were at 5,917, with one new 52 week low - ORE at 2.34.

Aboitiz owned companies had a jumpstart due to their declaration of two cash dividends for Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV), and a share buyback program for not only this said company but other Aboitiz owned companies like Aboitiz Power (AP) & Union Bank (UBP).

This was the second day of the basura stocks, with the following stocks hogging the ticker space:

PEP
BRN (well fine, technically this isn't a basura stock)
GEO
NI
EIBA/B
SINO
TUNA

I'll stop here.

But that wasn't the surprise of the day. This is the surprise:

What the... no trade for TEL????

Now you can tell me this is one helluva bear market.

The one thing that's good, (and maybe bad as well), is that we managed to keep the index afloat with DOMESTIC buyers. The problem is there might be less and less of institutional investors. This creates the problem of a speculative market and this makes for even more difficult trading.
Remember, keep your gains tight and throw greed out the window.

Stocks to look at for the following week are the above mentioned stocks as well as the following:

PA - notice that there's always a big seller posted
BPC - bullish divergence between price and RSI chart
MUSX - same as PA's case

Good luck and have a pleasant weekend!

I hope the US market manages to close higher, if not, flat wouldn't be that bad either. The series of rate cuts and the tax stimulus package in the US will likely push inflation higher in the latter half of the year. They got the shot in the arm alright, but I think they used the wrong medicine. Stay safe.

The February 6 Report

2008-02-06T08:24:00.000-08:00

Happy New (Rat) Year! Kung Hei Fat Choi! God knows I'm fat...

Is this the return of my daily stock market journal? Well, it depends if I'm busy or not. So you can take my posting today as I'm not busy.

The index ended at 3,228.84, down 54 points, or 1.67% from yesterday. Let's see our neighbor's performance:

Japan -4.07%
Hong Kong -5.40%
Shanghai -1.56%
Taiwan +2.03%
S. Korea +0.38%
Thailand -2.04%
India -2.81%

As you can see, our market actually fared better, relatively. This, despite looming political uncertainty in the coming weeks. Or, you can take it another way, that the market actually cheered JDV being booted out as the Speaker.

Our market was actually down but the intraday chart of the PSEi was amazing, recovering around the 1030 AM and then settling at 3,228. The market tomorrow should zoom up, and with the DOW going up (as of now anyways), there should be enough catalyst to push the index higher.

If the Gregorian New Year failed to excite investors and traders alike, then hopefully the first day tomorrow of the Lunar calendar year would provide people with a ray of hope.

However, foreign trading activity is quite the shocker, headlined by Deutsche net selling of -462M. What? Are they bailing out of the country or something? That value was enough to gobble up the net buying of other foreign brokers. He's a real killer right? Up there with UBS ang pera mo.

Take a look at the following stocks tomorrow:

EEI - be on guard though, 3rd day of its rise
CMT
MRC

Today was sort of the day of the third liners with TUNA, CMT, MRC, hogging the ticker.

Good luck tomorrow guys. Hopefully, clear signs of decoupling does happen. I have this bad feeling though, that 1st Qtr GDP will fall below expectations. Already, the Customs fell short of their revenue take for the first month of the year. The government has to spend mega bucks sometime between now and March if they want to the GDP numbers to look handsome.

Bloody February

2008-02-05T10:16:00.000-08:00

February marks two of the reddest celebrations in the calendar year. One, Feb 14 marks hearts day, where everyone wears bloody red clothes and give plastic flowers and show fake emotions (haha). Two, it is during this month that the Chinese New Year is celebrated, and people who want to usher in good luck, would wear red from the shirt to the skirt to the socks to the shoes, and perhaps even their underwear.

Today, as of 2:19AM Philippine Time, the US Dow Jones has plopped, plunged, and plummeted by more than 280 points, thanks to this wonderful comment by a US Fed President. Against the backdrop of ugly technical charts, and even uglier (economic) fundamentals, the next big enemy is the very bad sentiment that every investor and trader have.

I attended an investor briefing lately, which was sponsored by Citibank, and their VP and Chief Economist has this (also) wonderful comment,

"Strengths are being downplayed and risks are being exaggerated."

CNBC, and other US media had already been saying the "R" word as early as the 3rd Quarter of 2007. Sometimes I think that these statements become self fulfilling prophecies. Like they say, a rumor stated a hundred times become fact. Since just about everyday, they were screaming recession, the US market has its blood dried up.

Onshore, the ouster of JDV has added to the specter of negative investor sentiment in the stock market. We were down by more than a percent, worse off than our Asian neighbors. Just what investors need right? What's more, this isn't the worst part yet. The worst part will come when JDV starts to open his mouth and accuse the current administration of this and that controversy.
2008 for the Chinese New Year marks the Year of the Earth Rat.

There certainly are a lot of rats out there in the field.

I previously wrote about a trading strategy called 3R. For this blog entry, there is a new 3R - Recession, Rumors and Rats. Rats!

Been Busy Report

2008-02-03T09:32:00.000-08:00

I've been quite busy the past few days and feeling down the weather so I had to prioritize other tasks that I needed to do.

The market ended the week on a happier note, and people were still cheering the 7.3% GDP growth that the Philippines registered. The things to look at are:

- GSIS investment in the local stock market
- Foreign buying
- 1st Qtr Philippine GDP
- Dow Jones, decoupling? I still have my doubts.

Pepsi's IPO fizzled out and UBS never even supported them. All their IPOs have been splendid failures. Let me recount for you - VLL, AGI, hmm what else? Well I can't remember probably because a part of my brain doesn't want me to.

Good luck next week. I hope there'd the be some upside coming into the Chinese New Year. GEMINI was supposed to fly before then, not crash, which it has been doing splendidly as well, just like UBS.

I thought of a new catchphrase.

Sa GEMINI UBS ang pera mo!

Kung Hei Fat Choi!

The January 29 Report

2008-01-29T06:59:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Decoupling here we come!

My report today will be tainted with sarcasm because instead of making a quick buck, I made a quick loss on a day trade. The market was up initially, until the gains of 40 or so points were withered down to half at just 20 points up. During that time, Asian markets were still going up and up, while we were losing much of our gains.

Let's make a wrap up of Asian markets:

Hong Kong +0.99%
Japan +2.99%
Shanghai +0.87%
Taiwan +1.21%
Kospi +0.66%
Thailand +1.41%
Indonesia +1.00%
Singapore +0.29%

Philippines +0.65%
DOW I don't have the data but they were up by triple digits, so that's close to 1.5%.

Philippines - Decoupling ? Yes!

Today's market was what you may call, whipsaw!

Index : 3,224
Vol: 2,704,731,725
Val: 3,517,115,000
# Trades: 6,967

Foreign Brokerages, in terms of value

JPM +135M
Deutsche +95M
UBS -62M
CLSA +49M
ABN -113M
PEP +62M
MACQ -18M
DBP +18M

From my estimate, there seems to be a net foreign buying here, which is a good thing. If this goes on for a week, then they're probably bottom picking. Or....

Window dressing. This is, after all, the last week of the month.

Stock, Stuck, Suck

I don't know anymore. This is a bear market. Moreover, the swings are difficult to predict, much less ride on.

The January 28 Report

2008-01-28T02:36:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Following the triple digit decline of the DOW last Friday, it was but natural for us to follow suit. Decoupling or no decoupling though, today's performance was actually better than the rest of Asia. Just look at the bloodbath that ensued in other big Asian markets:

Hong Kong -4.25%
Japan -3.97%
Singapore -3.75%
Shanghai A -7.20%
Korea -3.85%

Philippines -1.05%

This is probably due in part to the recent good news from Moody's. Moreover, in this recent Bloomberg article, Asian Fund fund managers have actually INCREASED their stake in selected SE Asian countries, which include us.

As of this writing, Europe is also down, so the pressure is on the DOW tonight. The DOW futures is down 101 points as of this writing (Philippine time 6:40PM).

Volume : 789,554,207
Value: 2,390,054,000
Trades: 5,777

ALI, MER, and BPI led the blue chips in green territory, while the rest of the index-linked stocks were bloodshot.

Total UP stocks were 20, 77 counters were down and 51 were unchanged from Friday.

Peso / $ = 40.950.

Stock, Stuck, Suck

Everything pretty much sucks, everybody's probably stuck, so what's left to stock?

January 24 Report

2008-01-24T08:19:00.000-08:00

Good day folks, in line with the recent market volatility, I'm still going to write my condensed version of my Stock Stuck Suck Report.

Index: 3,147
Performance +89 points or 2.9%
Volume: 2,364,384,527
Value: 4,997,859,000
Trades: 10,569
4 New 52 Week Highs (whaaat?) BC, BCP, EIBA, SEVN

All sectors in the green with mining leading the way at + 195.00

Foreigners still dumping our shares like it's Apocalypse Now. So be wary. Sell in the rally is still the prevailing sentiment.

The dollar is showing resilience amidst a rate cut by the US Fed. Time to buy PAX? Abangan na lang.

Some stocks that may be worth your second look:

BC
DIZ
TUNA
BRN

Good luck to us all.

Incomplete Update for January 23

2008-01-23T09:36:00.000-08:00

Apologies, I couldn't view my own blog for the past 3 days, I will update this blog tomorrow or in the coming days when there is something to buy in the market.

Let me reiterate my picks before - DFNN and PAX. After saying that PAX had a solid support, the market betrayed me and it fell through that support. PAX is still tops on my list for a buy and hold strategy (i hope that was not your strategy when it was in its high 30s). The dollar should start to pick up sometime late 2nd quarter, and the beneficiary of that will naturally be the call centers, with PAX being one of the listed companies in the stock market (the others being IP and ETEL).

Why DFNN? Well I haven't looked at the chart, maybe I'll do that tomorrow.

See you when I see you guys. I hope your confidence is still there. This market is what will separate the men from the pansies. Ciao!

Some Thoughts on The Market

2008-01-20T06:31:00.000-08:00

There has been some recent comments about Asia "decoupling" from the United States. Since our country, the Philippines is still a part of Asia, I can surmise that we should also benefit from this, er, decoupling. So far, we have been doing that. It's just that it's not in our favor.

For example, the times that the DOW was UP, we were down. When the DOW was down, we were down even worse. Talk about decoupling.

In any case, if my limited knowledge of PSE history is correct, the index at the onset, was primarily composed of mining and oil stocks, i.e. commodities. The PSE has gone a long way since that time, adding such junk companies as Lodestar, JOH, and a slew of other companies who did public offerings and just forgot about the (shareholder) public who shelled out money for their shares during their offer period years ago.

Cynicism aside, it is my belief that the local stock market has come full circle. What am I saying? This year's growth fulcrum for the stock market is linked to the Mining and Oil sector. Similar to the start of the index decades ago, we are starting a new base folks.

If you look at the big picture, yes there are volatilities involved in the stock market. But take heart, we won't see a repeat of the crash similar to that of the years following 1997. This of course, also goes without saying that the market has to find a very strong support before it takes off again. Add to that is the fact that mutual funds, variable life insurance products and UITFs have come to the fore, adding into the trading pits what we may call as institutional investors.

There is a light at the end of this dark tunnel my friends. Stay the course. Just ride through the volatility, be less greedy and you'll be happy by December 31st of this year. The strategy is this :

Short term bearish, but long term bullish. Be mindful once the market starts to find a bottom.

You don't have to emphasize it boys.

January 18 Report

2008-01-18T10:20:00.000-08:00

Good Morning, it is now 2:21AM January 19. I felt no urgency to update this blog given today's horrendous market performance.

The upside? We closed down "just" 80 points, from a high of about 110 points if my memory serves me right.

Foreigners continued to dump our shares, in value terms:

Deutsche - -336M
ATR - -65M (if this is considered foreign)
JPM - -100M
Macq - -182M
CLSA - -229M
UBS - + 78M (wow the only net buyer)
PEP - -89M
ABN - -48M
DBP - +30M (di lang pala UBS)

Their selling has only accelerated even further. Goodbye foreigners, hello thin trading volumes in the coming days.

BRN continued to shine today.

I have recently discovered a new technical tool that is almost 90% accurate. I will not share that since it requires further testing. But suffice it to say, it predicted BRN's stellar performance today. The only problem? I didn't have the cajones to buy in because of the triple digit index decline.

A lot of stocks have bottomed out, if I am to use this tool. Let's see what happens on Monday.

No stock picks yet at this point. I think just pick your nose, that'd be more fun.

Ciao for now.

The January 16 Report

2008-01-15T19:10:00.000-08:00

Congratulations to the holders of BRN, and BC. Those who were able to pick these up when I first mentioned this should be happier than the primarily bear infested local market. I sold my BC too soon. Instead of BRN, I focused on RLT, but it was just a day trade.

I have decided to cut my SSS report to just shorter entries. If I make a SSS report, then I'll just be cutting the wounds deeper trying to recall the day's (and just about everyday's) bloodbath.

This is certainly a bear market if you haven't already noticed, however, I am confident our market, even at its worst, will not be as bad as the market we had about a decade ago. The problem is in the United States, and although that has an effect on our local economy, we, and Asia in general has built up a mighty war chest called national reserves. In fact, our own currency is dubbed as Asia's best performing currency. This is a sharp turnaround from what we faced earlier in the century.

These are all fundamentals, albeit very basic at best. However, when the Technicals tell you don't buy, you want to find solace in the fundamental story, just so you can keep you sanity.

Sorry about yesterday, I was out. As I've said, I have focused my energies on other earning endeavors. So this is not a priority at the moment. :-)

Some stocks to take note of:

DFNN
PAX - it's been beaten black and blue and almost decomposing, but 5.80 is a very very strong support.

The January 14 Report

2008-01-14T08:41:00.000-08:00

I know I wasn't able to update this last Friday, I was in Baguio :p

I have a very short report today, and the one thing very significant, at least for me, is the level of volume and number of trades that I saw today - anything but exciting.

Check the numbers:

VOLUME 783,782,286
VALUE 2,206,757,000 (which leads me to believe it's just purely blue cheaps, I mean
pathetic volume but that high value?)
# Trades 4,603

Foreigners are still selling like crazy with notable example - UBS, -250M (value).
Deutsche was picking up MEG. This is an interesting play as MEG is trying to cover the gap down it created last week.

ETON has also been rising steadily however 4.00 could be a near term resistance.

Some interesting stocks to look at:
BC
BRN
RLT

Well good luck to us this week. So far DOW is triple digits up.

The January 9 Report (Or lack of it)

2008-01-09T09:12:00.000-08:00

I'll just sum up the market - impressive. With the Dow Jones crashing through the roof triple digits, we were down by just 4 points. At one point we were down 30, but the intraday PSEi chart showed that the market would rebound, and I was betting that we'd be down by about 10-15 points. Boy was I wrong!

Tomorrow should be an interesting day for the Philippine Market.

For now, the stock market is largely driven by sentiments. I talked to not a few people, and they want to shift their investments to safer, more conservative instruments. Flight to quality (or was it safety) is the term for it.

Anyway, I might begin to look offshore for trading opportunities. I wanted to blog about something today, it's related to the stock market but I just can't remember it. Grr. I was out the whole afternoon and I guess the heatwave fried some of my brain cells.

No January 8 Report

2008-01-08T07:28:00.000-08:00

Sorry folks, I am unable to craft the report for today as I was in the hospital during trading hours.

There's nothing much to recommend, and dissing a stock will just mean dissing everything that's listed on the exchange.

Oh, please don't hate me but I was able to day trade Ni.

See you tomorrow folks. I am busy doing something new as I need to detach myself from the market and as Robert Kiyosaki states, "expand my means".

The January 7 Report

2008-01-06T21:50:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary - January 4

As much as I would like to remain unattached emotionally with the condition of the market right now, emotions are just too strong to be denied entry into my blog.

Markets are certainly dead in the water right now, anywhere and everywhere you look. The recent spate of bad US economic news has certainly dampened sentiments further, this blogger's included. Prices fluctuate based on demand and supply, but these are all predicated on the prevailing sentiments of people.

Right now, people are just cautious if not paranoid already. I have started to become bored with the market, and there is greater difficulty trying to make day trades. I think I have to get my momentum back real soon.

Market is now at 3,388. This is close to wiping the entire gain of 2007. We are 2.60% down, or 90.56 points.

There are traders and there are investors. It's time to wear your investor hats, if you are one with extra cash. People make money from panic and mania. This is certainly a time for the former.

Fundamental stock picking is a long and arduous task though as you have to go through voluminous financial reports, and timing is certainly crucial. This isn't the time yet to get in. And this most definitely is not a time for traders, especially since our market is not open to shorting.

On with the horror show.

10 stocks up, 125 down, 28 spared. Total trades today were 9,141 with probably 90% selldowns (so it goes, so it goes).

New 52-wk high : none, and I'm not surprised
New 52 Wk low: EIB, FLI, GMA7, TUNA, UBP

Active stock MBT (-7.69%) closing at 48.00
Top Gainer was KEP 1.98 (+10.00%)
Top Loser was MVC 0.60 (-29.41%)

Today's volume: 2,431,395,983
Value is 3,893,243,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +24M
CLSA +50M
MACQ -218M
JPM -197M (sold out?)
UBS -88M
ABN -8M (wow still so little)
DBP +28M
PEP -12M

Bear market folks. GMA? FLI? UBP? Down???

STOCK...

Up On Cash.

And Morale.

STUCK

My ass to the chair and my eyes to the screen... doing nothing. This still remains.

SUCK

All the blue cheaps.

The January 4 Report

2008-01-04T08:27:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary - January 4

The DOW rebounded last night but only to pare down its gains. This weaker close no doubt caused our market to close weaker at 3,479, down by 22 points or -0.63%. Fears of a recession in the US have intensified due to the weaker jobs growth in December. As of press time (12:29AM Philippine Time), the DOW is already below the 13,000 mark at 12,896.

On with the show.

34 stocks up, 78 down, 43 spared. Total trades today were a lowly 6,536 with probably 90% selldowns (again).

New 52-wk high : none, and I'm not surprised
New 52 Wk low: PNC, UBP

Active stock TEL (-0.1634%)
Top Gainer was AAA 0.46 (+43.75%) , a day after dipping to its 52 week low
Top Loser was JOH 1.62 (-10.00%)

Today's volume: 2,717,144,928
Value is 2,397,779,000 (amazing given the volume)

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU -173M
CLSA -43M
MACQ -49M
JPM +80M (2nd net green)
UBS -37M
ABN -1.9M (wow so little)
DBP -13M
PEP -46M

I wasn't able to check whether it was net buying or selling yesterday. No time. Anyway, I don't bother to check anymore. The market is going from bad to worse to worst.

No more editing after this point.
STOCK...

Up On Cash.

STUCK

My ass to the chair and my eyes to the screen... doing nothing.

SUCK

All the blue cheaps.

The January 3 Report

2008-01-03T05:32:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary - January 3

My first report for the year! Happy New Year again folks, the bandwagontrader is back again. I'm retooling my blog so that my reports are short, crisp and to the point. I don't imagine having my fingers typing gazillion words everyday will be beneficial in the long run.

I woke up late today, by choice, given last night's horrid performance by the DOW. What a way to start the New Year! The Phisix, a slave to the DOW, fell and is hanging precariously at 3,500 - 3,501.38, down by 115 points or -3.2%. If the DOW continues its consistent nosedive, it's hello 3,300.

16 stocks up, 101 down, 30 spared. Total trades today were a lowly 6,542 with probably 90% selldowns.

New 52-wk high : none, and I'm not surprised
New 52 Wk low: AAA, BCB, TUNA

Active stock AC (-6.42%)
Top Gainer was CEU 6.40 (+16.36%)
Top Loser was PNC 4.10 (-29.31%)

Today's volume: 2,852,863,173
Value is 2,425,757,000 (amazing given the volume)

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU -176M
CLSA +64M
MACQ +79M
JPM +142M
UBS -48M
ABN -46M
DBP -3M
PEP -62M

Surprise surprise, net foreign BUYING? Confirm these tomorrow in the newspaper. Even if it's foreign buying, I wouldn't be surprised that this is start of the year window dressing.

STOCK...

Up On Cash.

STUCK

My ass to the chair and my eyes to the screen... doing nothing.

SUCK

All the blue cheaps.

Stay safe my friends. Don't go long unless these are mining stocks (which have been lackluster, even LC/B, PX, OV). Do continue to monitor gold stocks and oil stocks. Oil at 100? It's a major resistance, it'll probably correct so stocks like OV and OPM might be ripe for the bottom picking once oil corrects. OV broke out of a rut recently but OPM is near its resistance. Between the two, go for OV. This is not an endorsement though as these are very volatile times.

Look at the chart of DJIA the entire year of 2007 was like a major consolidation phase. 2008 - a continuation? Or a breakout of the consolidation?

Happy New Year

2008-01-02T06:33:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year traders, I surely hope the adjective Happy will stick throughout the 366 days of the current year.

Time flies when you don't have a trading program installed in your computer. I made sure I got the program today (Technistock), so I'll be back to day trade 'em again! (I missed out on TA and OV. Shoot)

I'll return to doing my daily SSS Reports. Can't wait.

December 27

2007-12-26T20:46:00.000-08:00

My PC as earlier noted, died on me, circa December 19 or thereabouts. It's been given a new lease on life recently, but the internet is still down due to some virus.

I have no idea what is happening to the market. I have lost my drive to look at charts, and look at the newspaper, at the very least. My only source of news is my broker, whom I am happy to say, has been a good friend of mine.

All I know is that the ticker moves in a snail pace, and that volumes are as razor thin as the Motorola RZR.

I hope you all had a Merry Christmas! We're having a Santa Claus rally and for people who've been in the market for some time already, I am sure you've already saw this as a chance to lighten your positions, if not entirely exit them.

I hope that in the new year, the stock market bull run will be revived, although some how I feel that won't happen. There'll be rallies, but there'll be no bull runs, we've been at it for quite sometime already. So folks, I hope you've stashed away savings, and also have other sources of income.

Ciao for now.

No Post

2007-12-22T09:08:00.001-08:00

I have no post because one day after I lost internet connection, my PC died on me.

Dow is up 200 points, so I hope this spills over til the last trading day.

See you when I have my PC back.

No Internet. No Report.

2007-12-18T06:19:00.001-08:00

What a lovely day. People say you should stop and smell the roses, in Manila, the only thing you can smell is the stench of pollution.

Today, I had no internet. I feel that a Tech ghost haunted me today, because even in the internet station, pambihira, nawalan din ako ng internet for some time! @#$@#$@#$#@$@#$@#$

In any case, there's not much to report on the stock market anyways.

Yesterday, the trading got HALTED because of a glitch in the PSE's system. I guess the backyardness of the Philippines span from P to P, i.e. PLDT to PSE. Heck even the Philippines.

Today, well the best song for those in long positions: Killing me softly
For those who got whipsawed last week: Holding back the years, (sing the song and just replace years with tears).

That is all for today. Tomorrow, there might be some tech rebound what with the bottom picking and recovery we saw in the market and selected blue cheap issues.

Updated Blogroll

2007-12-15T00:07:00.001-08:00

I realized I forgot to link up with other fellow Absolute Traders.

If I still don't have your blog link, just let me know and I'll gladly hook it up here.

Good luck next week traders!

The December 14 Report

2007-12-14T01:39:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary - December 14

Wow. A day after I said that 3,600 was a strong support, today's performance was like a slap to my face. We started weak and there were no brakes for today's skid. We fell to hell at 3,538, down 87 points. At one point we were recovering from a 60 point deficit to just 50, but all hell broke loose at the 11AM mark.

Foreigners continued to dump local stocks like there was no tomorrow. Hello? There are still about two weeks left in the month. Pambihira, pagbigyan niyo naman kami! @#$#@%!

If we do not bounce back on Monday, hello 3,300, goodbye year end rally.

We didn't even track the DOW's performance, when they actually closed up 40 points. Intraday though, the DOW was crazy, winding up and down from a 100 point down to your close of 40 points up. Volatility is the name of the game, and skilled traders can still make money in this market. But like I said, if you want to trade, do a day trade. That's it. Preserve your capital.

Yogi bear is in, and Red Bull is out. I don't see anyone saying we'll be hitting 3,800 anymore. During the first half of the year, it was like the trumpet song of every analyst. PSEi will close at a new high of 4000. The only thing new this December, is a break in the tradition of the year end window dressing.

I am thinking, that on the fundamental side, our Peso's strength has been hurting foreign funds already. Our stocks are now more expensive to hold on to. And if next year, the dollar continues to fall, would it turn off foreign funds? Maybe that's why they're shifting their funds?

I'm injecting some side comments since I'll go nuts if I maintain my serious tone amidst this crazy market today.

23 stocks up (there were up stocks??), 106 down, 40 unchanged (or rather, SPARED). Total trades today were a lowly 9,618. (Oh and I am sure all these trades were cut losses)

New 52-wk high : MFIN (Wow meron pa palang nag 52 wk high, this is its second day here)
New 52 Wk low PAX (Poor Pax, this used to be BB's darling, now, it's in the cellar) (I thought there were many new 52 week lows what with the market today hehehe)

Active stock was still TEL 3,000 (-1.48%) (TEL is at the support already!!!!! Oh no!!!!!)
Top Gainer was MFIN 3.80 (+49%)
Top Loser was APR 3.30 (-24.29%) (The biggest losers are those who are in long positions. Hay. Kakalungkot ang market na ito)

Today's volume: 1,763,057,919
Value is 4,184,115,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses: (blast you blast you! di man lang dinahandahan....waaaaaaa)
DEU +59M
CLSA +25M
MACQ -234M (3rd selling day)
JPM +101M (this is a surprise, kanina akala ko panay selling)
UBS -472M (pambihira tinapon lang yata binili nung ilang araw)
ABN -133M (3rd selling day)
DBP -75M (parang UBS, inubos lang binili)
PEP -60 M (2nd selling day)

Looks like heavy selling. No other comments your honor.

STOCK

SMC still strong, but hovering near its resistance. A strong resistance by the way.

Well I won't be adding anymore here unless I want to get shot after the recommendation.

STUCK

Me.

SUCK

Ayala Corp and TEL. These two big weights in the PSEi are treading on dangerous grounds. If they continue their freefall,this will have a big impact on the PSEi , which in turn will make people even more Yogi bearish.

The market, the US recession (aminin na kasi!), this month, but hopefully not the entire 2008!

The December 13 Report

2007-12-13T06:40:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary - December 13

Today's market was similar in likeness to the DOW as of late. We seesawed from 22 points up to just 4 points, then closed up 20 points again. There were only a few volume today, and the big headline was the successful bidding out of the Transco franchise.

The FED cut its rate by 25bps so the DOW closed down over 200 points the other night. Our market was not spared the same yesterday but surprised me with a strong and resilient market when we closed at 3,600. Folks, 3,600 looks to be a strong support. We've come from two bombing incidents, one coup attempt, and endless corruption scandals, but our market seems to have matured and has taken aside political noise.

We're already into week 2 of the last month of 2007. Analysts predicted a close of between 3,800 to 4,000 for the year, but that was back in Q1. Let's see how we close out the year. More than half of US economists are predicting that the US will head into a recession. I have a friend who works in a call center and she told me that she's having difficulty closing some sales. That's got me worried.

I hope Chairman Fitz Aclan's theory of a decoupling of Asian equities from the US would happen. Otherwise, we'll see strong signs of bearishness heading into Q1 2008.

Today's volume was lackadaisical, to say the least.

55 stocks up, 55 down, 65 unchanged. Total trades today were a lowly 7,855. Two new 52-wk high : CA. MFIN. 52 Wk low PRIM, TELL, TELM

Active stock was still SCC 43.00 (+07.5%)
Top Gainer was BRN 2.12 (+49.3%). More on this later.
Top Loser was AB 9.00 (-18.18%) that's for Atok-Big Wedge Company "A". I really think the name sounds funny, what with the wedge and all.

Today's volume: 1,374,742,485
Value is 4,757,599,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +61M
CLSA -128M (2nd selling day)
MACQ -65M (2nd selling day)
JPM -64M (2nd selling day)
UBS +127M (2nd buying day)
ABN -130M (2nd selling day)
DBP +36M (2nd buying day)
PEP -10 M

Foreign Selling here. UBS still buying TEL, BPC. They've switched to buying GLO and AC (after selling it Tuesday). And also bought some shares of PLTL.

STOCK

I'm still serious - It's advisable to stay liquid for now. If you plan to trade, make a day trade.

I was able to day trade RLT today.

BRN didn't even try to open higher, it just zoomed up to ceiling on opening. All shares that were related to it somehow, moved - RLT, V (my suspicion). PX might also move tomorrow. Check it out. However the biggest surprise for me is SMC. The loser in the Transco bid looked as if they were the ones who won.

I made a list of stocks to put on the radar last week. So far, here's the scorecard:

MUSX - successfully traded. Bought 2.08 sold 2.14. Small gain, but a gain is a gain.
DIZ - successfully traded. Day traded yesterday.
DFNN - Successfully daytraded Wednesday
Lopez Stocks - still on my radar. I'm hot on BPC. It's just waiting for MER to move.
PX - looks like an ascending triangle. Fed rate cut, gold hedge, BRN play.
GEO/MIC - GEO sucks, but MIC is still strong at 6.90.

Two lousy IPOs - SPH and T are having a short consolidation phase. Watch where they will move to next.

Look at BRN tomorrow if it still goes up ceiling. The chart looks so risky I can't recommend this. But look to tsupita on RLT or V.

LR - stock that broke out today. Monitor this tomorrow.

STUCK

All the other stucks not worth mentioning here. Blue cheaps are still affiliated with this list.

SUCK

I recant on CMT. From what I'm seeing , foreigners are dumping property stocks. I also saw EEI being dumped. CMT is not the stock to be in right now.

Some Angping stocks like GEO, DIZ.

Recommendation, No December 12 Report

2007-12-12T09:20:00.000-08:00

NEWS FLASH

Apologies folks, I was out today for a despedida party for a friend. Therefore, I don't have any report to make. However, I saw something interesting and I just want to publish it here.

Anyway, when I got back I was checking some emails from hotmail and after logging off, this news from MSN came out as a shocker for me. SMC lost the Transco bid to the group that comprises among others, Monte Oro Grid. Monte Oro Grid is substantially held by A. Brown, otherwise known as BRN in the PSE ticker. RLT has a diluted share in A. Brown.

My recommendation for tomorrow, put these two in your radar. These could fly. Among the two, RLT has a double bottom, RLT could retrace back to 0.60. As for BRN, I'm seeing a big symmetrical triangle, however, it's not perfect as the two tops (Sometime July and October) are too far off.

BRN is a no brainer buy, while RLT is a chart buy with this catalyst. Abangan bukas.

The December 11 Report

2007-12-10T23:43:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary - December 11

On a day that the US went up triple digits, we were DOWN by -3 points to settle at 3,672. Two views - we recently tested the 3,700 level so this pullback could be good as we don't want to breakaway from that level and just zoom up. Another view is that the [expected] FED is already priced in to the markets.

If the FED cuts by 25 bps, then we will probably see a consolidation, then kaput! Market kisses us bye bye. If they make it 50, then there'll be some more legs to the exhausted bull.

The bright side of this is that at one point we were down by 22 points, and we settled at less than that, as mentioned earlier. The index is still above 3,600.

The PSEi should review the index as TEL carries such a big load, that at a correction, it already brings down the market. A big reason why the index recovered today is that TEL recovered from an intraday low of 3,020. Imagine, TEL represents 26% of the index!!!

What with the flat market, as expected up, down and unchanged counters were almost even.

57 stocks up, 54 down, 59 unchanged. Total trades today were a lowly 7,889. One new 52-wk high : CA. 52 Wk low CAT.

Active stock was still TEL 3,050.00 (+0.49%)
Top Gainer was CA 29.00 (+48.72%), and no I don't recommend this. I mean just 4 trades???
Top Loser was CAT 3.45 (-39.71%)

Today's volume: 1,592,966,777
Value is 3,630,618,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU -40M
CLSA -138M
MACQ -164M
JPM -33M
UBS +178M
ABN -265M
DBP +2.6M
PEP +14M

Foreign Selling here. UBS bought TEL, VLL, BPC, LCB, and ALI while they sold FLI, GLO, FGEN, AC and DMC.

STOCK

It's advisable to stay liquid for now. If you plan to trade, make a day trade.

I was able to day trade CYBR today.

PA - looks to be near the support of 0.225 and 0.23. Those who bought yesterday have a 2% gain from yesterday's close of 0.23.

PEP lied low yesterday while it recovered today at 1.42. This could fly tomorrow if it doesn't fall back to the 1.34++ low levels.

I made a list of stocks to put on the radar last week. So far, here's the scorecard:

MUSX - successfully traded. Bought 2.08 sold 2.14. Small gain, but a gain is a gain.
DIZ - successfully traded. Day traded yesterday.
DFNN - for monitoring as it is suspended.
Lopez Stocks - still on my radar. I'm hot on BPC. It's just waiting for MER to move.
PX - looks like an ascending triangle. If the FED cuts rates, and the dollar falls, expect gold
to go up. Historically, PX is the leading stock when it comes to having a gold play
GEO/MIC - still on my radar. If the FED cuts 50 points and our market responds positively,
these two could fly as they have a high correlation to the market's performance.

Also keep a close watch on CMT. It's now on a sideways movement. Two lousy IPOs - SPH and T made major moves today and are going up from a bottom.

STUCK

TBGI. Have some on stuck. If it still doesn't move this week, good riddance.
TBGI : Talagang Babay at goodbye, ipit!

AT. Welcome back to the list.

SUCK

The PSEi. Analysts, and including myself, thought that we'd track the DOW. So far, it has been anything but.

The December 7 Report

2007-12-07T08:17:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Our market ended the week on a dull note, notching 11 points to close at 3,745. However, this is not to belittle this week's performance. Coming into this week, the market closed at 3,578, thanks to Trillianes and his adventurous friends. We closed this week up by 167 points or 4.7%. Not bad.

I just wonder what next week holds for us since a lot of people were saying we'd reach 3,800 by year end. Are people saying that we just have 55 points to go then we go crashing down back to earth?

At one point our market was "down" 169 points. I say "down" with the quotation marks because it was due to a technical glitch. Some people probably thought we crashed and thus eroded today's gains to whittle it down to 11. This blog author was also curious why that happened when TEL, and other big caps were not in the red majorly.

Next week is the big Fed meeting, followed by our own local BSP. On to the field notes:

53 stocks up, 60 down, 53 unchanged. Total trades today were 11,575. One new 52-wk high : BC.

For the PSEi, MBT led the way while ALI succumbed to what we might say, profit taking.

Active stock was still TEL 3,120.00 (-0.16%)
Top Gainer was MRC 0.63 (+14.55%)
Top Loser was JTH 30.00 (-20%) (Yesterday, this was the top gainer)

Today's volume: 1,849,206,658
Value is 4,820,524,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +86M
CLSA +63M
MACQ +221M
JPM -154M
UBS -169M
ABN +20M
DBP -2M
PEP -37M

Looks like it's still net foreign buying! This is certainly good news and will be a good omen for the ff. week.

STOCK

LC and LCB - 0.54 (-1.82%), 0.58 (-1.69%). They are still near their highs, double top? Monitor this on Monday it could potentially breakout.

PA - Downhill trend confirmed, it closed at 0.235 (-4.08%), on an up market day, this one is down. Bearish in my book, at least in the next few days.

AJO - Weekend factored. It closed weaker by -3.57% to settle at 0.135. Not much trading - 71 trades, light volume compared to yesterday. Watch out for this again on Monday.

PEP. Well it rested today, and it's also probably due to the weekend factor. Closed at 1.42 (-4.05%). Oh, and DBP-Daiwa bought 500,000 shares at 1.42. They also bought some shares yesterday. Foreign players? Abangan sa Lunes.

Stocks to watch out for next week - MUSX, DFNN, Lopez Stocks, DIZ, PX, GEO, MIC. If you have charting software try looking at all of them except MUSX. I just have a feeling MUSX would go up because some people will average down, which could push the price up a bit.

STUCK

TBGI.

AT. Nuff said. But is the last 4 trading days a bullish flag pattern? Abangan din ito sa Lunes.

SUCK

I didn't have any day trades today. I almost dipped my hands into MUSX. Good thing I didn't.

Happy weekend! And Good Luck to us in December.

The December 6 Report

2007-12-06T07:25:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Yowza! Our market is burning hot! We've breached 3,700 to settle at 3,733. We ended the day 85 points up (+2.34%). However this was a bit toned down as we were actually up a hundred points in mid-trading day. I hope the market doesn't burn out soon, but a healthy correction is always a welcome treat. It allows people to get in again. Bullish again? Or Bull shit?

Just be on your toes. Remember, we're not in a bull market anymore. We've just gone past the consolidation phase so it remains to be seen if this is going to be another sustained bull run.

I'm not going to ruin the moment though so let's get down to it:

77 stocks up, 29 down, 60 unchanged. Total trades today were 12,962. (I'll be including this detail from now on.). Two new 52-wk highs were PEP and MWC. Yesterday about the same number of stocks were up, so it's probable that today's UP shares were the same as yesterday's.

The ff boosted the index today: TEL, AC, BPI and of course MER. Do you know that MER had total trades of 931???? Compare that with PEP: 698, MWC: 171. They're a study in contrast.

Active stock was still ALI 16.50 (+1.54%)
Top Gainer was JTH 37.50 (+50%)
Top Loser was VVT 1.20 (-40%)

Today's volume: 3,312,763,186
Value is 5,203,024,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU -251M (KJ!!!!!!!!!!!!)
CLSA +58M
MACQ +170M
JPM +183M
UBS +39M
ABN +80M
DBP -78M
PEP -11M

Net foreign buying! Are happy days back? Hope so! Even for just the next [less than] 20 trading days!

STOCK

Well, let's look at our observation of LC yesterday. LC closed at 0.55, while B shares closed at 0.59. Deutsche bought a lot of both shares at the run off. Hold your buying decision on this, and if you've already bought in earlier, might be good to unload and monitor it with your cash hoard.

PA - well it corrected weaker to 0.245. RSI divergence confirmation? We'll see tomorrow if the this is the start of a downhill trend.

AJO retraced some of its gains to fall to an intraday low of 0.13. However there the bulls on this stock came roaring back and caused it to close flat. Tomorrow should be an interesting day for this stock. Weekend factor or bullish factor? Abangan!

PEP. It did a new 52 week high. Trading books around will tell you this is a good sign.

STUCK

TBGI. I bought some shares. I'm just intrigued this hasn't fallen prey to previous weeks' dog days. Let's see if this flies. I only bought a negligible amount of shares. Just testing it out.

AT. Nuff said.

SUCK

VLL. On a day that the market was up 2%, VLL decides to close flat.

Lopez stocks might take a breather soon, be wary.

The December 5, 2007 Report

2007-12-05T00:32:00.001-08:00

Market Commentary

Well I'll be dam'd, despite the double digit correction in the US Dow last night we are up, albeit very slightly, by 4 points. We settled at 3,468. It's not much, but it's amazing how our market recovered from an intraday low of being -25 points down. The intra day PSEi chart looked like an inverted head and shoulders. Boolish ito! Hopefully the US goes up tonight.

77 stocks were up with 32 counters down. 52 remain unchanged.

Top active stock was ALI, top gainer was Aries Prime (Who?, ticker APR) and top loser was Manila Bulletin (MB). Lopez stocks were the rulers today with FPH, FGEN, MER and BPC up in tandem with each other.

Inflation for November was higher than expected, which could dampen hopes for a local interest rate cut. However in my opinion, November and December historically have a higher inflation rate. It's not surprising. My stance is that the BSP will still cut its rate, following the move from the US.

Third day of the first week of December, we're still up, though marginally. We'll see if the buying momentum carries us towards a strong first week of December by Friday. Hopefully it does so Absolute Traders can have a great Christmas Party! Whooah!

Foreign Houses:
DEU -93M
CLSA +8M
MACQ -144M
JPM +26M
UBS -57M
ABN +0.424M
DBP -45M
PEP -125M

Looks like it's still net foreign selling. Hmm, what are you selling foreigners?

BPI, SM, MWC, BDO - Deutsche
TEL, MER - JPMorgan
VLL, SMPH, AC, GLO - UBS

Well everybody's shifting their portfolios.

STOCK

LC is retesting its resistance of 0.54, and is precariously near its 1 year high of 0.56. Tomorrow should be interesting. LCB is also retesting its high.

PA closed weaker today at 0.25, but still within its tight range. Before, tsupiteros could play it with one fluc per 0.005. Now it's a bit more difficult, and expensive. So a breakout from 0.26 and eventually into 0.27 could earn it a tag of "STRONG BUY". Just be cautious as there seems to be an RSI divergence. *Jitters*

AJO is also an interesting trading play. It was up 12% today. After a consolidation period, it's now broke out of its sideways pattern. Let's see if tomorrow will be a continuation of its bullish movement.

VLL. RSI going up. Price chart going up with a breakout today. Initial target of Php 6.00 as it is a strong resistance point.

Other Stocks:

EDC is now at 7.10. Remember, FGEN bought this at 9.00. I didn't say this was a trading buy :p
ELI a rights offering at Php 1.00, 1 for 3 shares held. It's now at 0.87. Let's see if this would continue tomorrow.
OV. I don't have news on this, but this could be a solid long play.
FGEN. We was right, it's now back up at 59.00. It's now on 62.00 per share! Congratulations for those who were patient. And also with FPH! Wow. Congratulations to the bottom pickers last week hehe.

* I was able to daytrade VLL. Hehe. I almost thought I wouldn't be able to sell today at 5.50. It was really amazing, with about 2-5 seconds left to closing time, Asiasec bought the shares up to 5.60! Hope for another round tomorrow!

STUCK

GEO. Is this an ascending triangle?

SUCK

The dollar, falling to lows yet again. Better sell the dollars folks. If you want to hold dollars, buy it next year or when the chart is showing signs of a rebound.

The December 3, 2007

2007-12-03T05:29:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Time flies when you're enjoying what you're doing. It's already December and there are only fewer than 20 trading days left in 07. Up or down who can say? The point is, you have to make the most of what opportunity is left in the year. If the US heads into recession (which is starting to be highly likely), this will not bode well for equities.

The markets are likely to head north this week with an expectation of another rate cut from the FED on its last meeting for the year. I've seen a news article today in the Inquirer that mentions that our own BSP would likely follow suit to protect the peso. The BSP's defense of the peso has put them in the red this year. The PSEi chart points to a stronger close this week. We might have a year end bang after all. But alas, it may also be the time to get out of the market and watch from the sidelines.

After a knee jerk reaction last week to a coup attempt the markets today recovered albeit with subdued volume from the 29th. We were up at one point close to 60, but we closed lower (intraday, but up) +48 points (1.35%). We are now above 3,600. All sectors were up with the exception of Services - primarily due to TEL. The best indicator of a bull market is that all sectors are up. Hopefully this blip won't mean anything for the week.

We seem to be heading towards a bullish week this week, based on the PSEi chart. Sorry folks, can't post it here. Even if I did, the image quality would look as beautiful as say, crap.

Foreign Houses:
From the Report of PSEi, we were net foreign selling today.
DEU -691M
CLSA -46M
MACQ +308M
JPM +60M
UBS -201M
ABN +144M
DBP -12M
PEP -244M

I am adding PEP here. PEP is considered a foreign broker as I have realized lately.

STOCK

Even though gold corrected majorly, LC was up 10% , 9% for the A and B shares, respectively. APX was up relatively lower by +3.08%. PX was up only 1%.

Surprise, surprise, PA is up to 0.26, and near the resistance of 0.27. If it breaks out, the near term target is somewhere in the 0.30 - 0.37 range. Watch out for this guys.

Other Stocks:

EDC is now at 7.10. Remember, FGEN bought this at 9.00
ELI a rights offering at Php 1.00, 1 for 3 shares held.
OV. I don't have news on this, but this could be a solid long play.
FGEN. We was right, it's now back up at 59.00.
Other beneficiaries would likely be FPH. FPH is a good play, the price chart is rising, RSI is rising. However, the MACD is telling us that this could only be a rally, not a true rebound.
* EDC, ELI, OV, FGEN and FPH are not trading buys. If you have been in the market for about 3-6 months, you will realize that basura stocks are better suited for traders.

STUCK

It's a good thing the PSEi wasn't.

SUCK

AGI. On a day that MEG went up, its mother company fell.

No November 29 Report

2007-11-29T00:25:00.000-08:00

Folks we have been victimized by my now infamous Weekend Factor. Something always gives on a weekend, especially long ones. Just when you thought that we'd be going up because of economic news and the DOW recording triple digit gains, a senator thought it wise to brandish guns inside a court house and accuse the current administration of being morally bankrupt.

If you brandish a gun inside a court house, what makes you better?

I was watching with glee at the stock market, we were up by a hundred points, 2% up from yesterday. Then I was shocked as everything went red and everybody was selling like crazy. What the **** happened?

I called up my broker and realized that Senator Trillianes, who hasn't smarted from his previous mutiny, is doing exactly what he did years ago.

We went from 100 points to just 16 points up early 11AM. It's remarkable that some brave traders sought the contrarian route and boosted the PHISIX up by 41 points to close at 3,578. Nonetheless, there's no point making a report today dahil sira na ang charts natin mga parekoy. A kneejerk reaction of selling today ultimately makes your charts look ugly.

I can only hope that the matter is settled peacefully over there at the Peninsula and the DOW goes up tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise, look for another sea of red come Monday.

How do you promote tourism when militant men in uniform use hotels as their staging point? I still call for all politicians to have mandatory basura stocks that will be locked up for 5 years. That should teach them a lesson about being POLICY MAKERS. Not party poopers.

November 27 Report

2007-11-27T08:21:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Today's still a commentary in my books because the PSEi was down by only -13 points (-0.37%) at 3,524. This, a day after a triple digit loss of the DOW yet again. I knew it, looking at the performance of the DOW near the open is useless. I said last night that the DOW was still up by 38 points as of my press time.

I'm updating this blog 12:25AM already. I'm not updating my blog at this time by choice. It's just that I've been quite busy as of late, what with 4 days gone last week without Internet. As of now the DOW is up triple digits, by 162 points. All three indexes - DOW, Nasdaq and S&P are up a percentage point.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +13M
CLSA -47M
MACQ +23M
JPM +49M
UBS +3M (KJ!)
ABN -5M
DBP +217M (Due to a huge block sale of FGEN at 9.73) Probably the government deal?

So from the looks of it, we have another day of net foreign buying here folks! Their volume though, is anything but exciting.

STOCK

Our pick yesterday on APX? Jackpot! LC? Same, I had some scare but I was able to day trade it today.

Gold retreated today, and so did oil, so tomorrow is an opportunity to buy gold related stocks. Gold and oil are long term bullish if I am to believe the news.

EDC is also a no-brainer. At a price of almost 9 apiece, you're buying the company at a bargain of 6.9 or 7. Do you think that the Lopezes would sell the shares lower than their bid price? I think not! In any case, this is a stock for long term players, not for trader junkies (like me).

OV. I know OV is one of those one fluc stocks, but if the Galoc project pans out next year? I don't think you'll be able to get the shares of OV at its current price. Again, this is a similar stock for long term players.

FGEN. Another long term play. Yeah, expensive deal, but this is EDC. One of the premier oil companies in the local market. Did I hear oil? Oh, and did I tell you that oil is one of those commodities that are going to run out of supply before our generation dies? Ever heard of the law of supply and demand? Oil is your long term bet (and so are base metals and gold).

Surprises - PA. From Suck to Surprise. Let's see if this is another stock.

Still strong - GEO.

From henceforth, I will subdivide STOCK into trader stock and investor stock. If you are a trader, you don't want a stock that goes up 5% per WEEK. You want the one that does that in a DAY.

You have to be quick to the draw and not be greedy. Take the profits and think that, in all the hell that is the market, you are still making money.

Put in your radar: SMC/B. Start of the return to recovery?

STUCK

So far, I have to see if there is a stock that's stuck in a range.

SUCK

Still PLDT and its brand of unreliable service. Even SMART is no better. Ever gone to their business centers? I'll give props to GLOBE for offering better service. The problem with GLOBE is that I think they're more expensive. (Somebody correct me if I'm wrong).

IS BACK!!!!!!! (November 26 Report)

2007-11-26T07:03:00.000-08:00

First, A Word From the Administrator:

From Thursday (22nd) to Monday (26th) morning, I was sidelined with NO INTERNET.

Aside from being unable to update my blog(s), I was unable to do any trading. I made incorrect moves because I WAS BLIND. I relied heavily on what my broker would tell me over the phone. Since I'm not the only client, it's difficult to ask him everything I want to monitor.

PLDT's "sorry for the inconvenience" is a pathetic excuse (and ruse) to calm nerves. This is not the first time they had this "inconvenience". I was "inconvenienced" this July, with a WEEK's time lost to no internet access. So people, if you want to apply for an internet connection, try some other service provider. Make PLDT your last resort. They'd rather put their money in advertisements to add their subscriber base without putting equal amounts of money into infrastructure development.

Market Commentary

I decided to upgrade it to "Commentary" given today's (and even last Friday's) performance. It's not the best, but I'm taking any gain that comes my way.

The market closed up +42 points (+1.23%) to crawl back to 3,537. Gainers beat losers 80 to 23, while 50 counters remained unchanged (Splat included).

The Mining and Oil Index was up +284 points, with Philex (PX) and Lepanto (LC A/B) leading the way. Lepanto A was up a whopping 8%, the B shares were up 7.8%. PX was up 2.06%.

TEL shed -0.1661% to 3,005 with mostly foreign selling. (That's what happens when you don't provide good service!). In any case, TEL is still a big weight in the index so I don't want this to crash hehe.

I'm updating this at 11:44PM, the DOW is up 38 points (+0.28%), while the Nasdaq and S&P are similarly up. It is critical that all three indexes are up. There was a time that the DOW and the Nasdaq were up, but the S&P wasn't. I hope this is a good omen as the volatility as of late has been wild INTRA day.

Another bright spot is what the foreigners were doing today:

Foreign Houses:
DEU +64M
CLSA + 3M
MACQ +13M
JPM +54M
UBS - 146M (KJ!)
ABN +131M
DBP + 22M

So from the looks of it, we have a net foreign buying here folks! I'm not sure if my list is entirely accurate or complete as there may be some foreign houses that I forgot to include in the list.

STOCK

With the recent highs of gold, LC, PX and APX.

Other than that, I don't have other stocks to recommend since this is my first day (actually night) with internet. Therefore, I only have my eyes on the market NOW.

STUCK

For updating on tomorrow's report.

SUCK

PLDT!

PLDT's DSL!

PA. Sucked big time I realized. You'd expect that the stock would at least go up ON THE DAY of the special stockholder's meeting. It didn't.

November 21 Report

2007-11-20T20:10:00.000-08:00

Market Critique

I have been busy the past two days, hence my absence from posting. I am migrating (no not to another country, although it's starting to be a really good idea), from market commentary to market critique so I can have a place to bash the market, just for fun. There's really nothing good from the market so far.

Let's first critique my prediction about the market. As of Wednesday's close, it's a flop, like Splash Corp. I forgot to read the US chart, which is definitely becoming the barometer of the PSEi. I used to think that the stock market is the barometer of the economy. Given that the Philippines is a (insert adjective here) country, (our politicians have no shame, I doubt even this would change their ways).

I still go by my earlier suggestion that all politicians made to hold shares of stocks, and lock these up for 5 years. They'll know what the @#$ they're doing to this country they're supposed to be running.

The increase of the DOW (51 points, +0.4%) last night failed to spur the local market. We were down 30 points, -0.85%, tracking major Asian averages. Decliners paved the way for uber-bearishness 80 to 24 gainers. You want to know who the top gainers were? Here they are:

LIHC (who?) +49.47%
CSB (huh?) +42.86%
MED (ano?) +42.50%

Our index is now hanging precariously above 3,500. I just checked the chart, looks like we're headed downhill in the short term. So much for November huh? Well we have about less than 2 weeks left until December. December has traditionally been a boom month for stocks. Looks like 2007's won't be the same. There's a study out there supposedly comparing 2007 to 1997 (even to 1987), when, in all these years, the market started to turn bearish. Superstition? Coincidence? We'll know by January.

Foreigners:
UBS +191M
MACQ - 94M
DEU - 99M
CLSA +166M
ABN + 46M
JPM +158M

Hey, looks like we're net foreign buying! Yehey! Thank you guys for averaging down! Now we're definitely sinking in quicksand.

There's really nothing to write about for Stock or Stuck. The market is highly volatile right now, it is difficult to recommend something without having a gun pointed at you after. The name of the game now is SPEED. Get in, get out. Don't be greedy or you'll end up dead.

STOCK

Buy boatloads of Extraderm, SkinWhite.

STUCK

Put these stocks in your house and never use it.

SUCK

Hmmm. The market today. There's a downside when you're viewing the market everyday.
You tend to forget to look at the bigger picture. So my tip is to take a look at the charts, and for novices (like me), have a little chat with an experienced broker, and ask for direction, by direction I mean talking to him or her to try to make sense of this market.

November 16 Report

2007-11-15T22:00:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

I try to keep the market commentary short and sweet because you can read the recap in broadsheets or on their online editions anyway. What I seek to do with the market commentary is to highlight what caught my eye, and potentially, what we can make a profit out of on the next trading day.

I hate writing on Fridays because you have the weekend factor. Whatever recommendation I would say would be useless if the DOW crashes tonight and if something happens again over the weekend.

At this point, the DOW futures are flat and point to 13,160. The DOW will always be the barometer by which the local market will want to track its performance with.

The BSP, as expected, cut its overnight rates by 25bps. However, that failed to entice the market. This is probably a sell on news. The PSEi closed weaker today at 3,598, down by -73 points or -1.99%. The market started drifting lower at the 1030AM mark.

You can blame BPI, TEL, AC, MEG and MBT for the decline of the PSE. Just take a look at these large caps:

BPI 62.00 -6.77%
TEL 3,015.00 -1.15%
AC 580.00 -2.52%
MEG 3.95 -4.82%
MBT 53.50 -4.46%

Blue chips have become blue cheaps as of late (except TEL). But don't ask me to buy just yet. I planned to buy MBT today, but when I saw the heavy selling of them foreigners, and the chart looking butt ugly, I postponed my purchase.

Our market just tracked the big cap Asian indexes namely Japan and Hong Kong - they were also down by -1.81% and -3.87% respectively. Our market is so damn small that if the foreigners bail out of the market, the local traders, and 'investors' would probably follow suit.

The top gainer today was DFNN. I braved today's bad market and made a day trade with DFNN. Happiness :-D

Don't ask me for rumors as I am not a rumor mill. I don't have any contacts with anyone, I heavily rely on my Technistock subscription.

Aside from learning TA from Absolute Traders, my subscription to Technistock has been one of my best investments this year. It's my investment in the stock market that isn't working at this point, haha.

DFNN might have some follow through on Monday so I'll keep an eye on this one.

Last week I mentioned that we might have a correction, well it happened. Is this a sign of further correction? Or are we entering a sideways movement from henceforth? As I've said, I'd rather a consolidation period than a further correction. It makes people jittery and bearish.

Let's revisit the PSE chart as of today's close. When I look at the RSI, we might make a technical rebound next week. Of course, this could just be my wishful thinking, as we will still depend on the almighty DOW come Monday. As long as there are corporate earnings reports coming out, and less negative news, fewer political brouhahas, and Jinggoy shuts up, I think next week could be a better week than this week's.

Based on this weekly chart, out market is lying precariously above the 30day moving average. The good thing is that, even with our week-long seesaw, we still managed to be above that 30 day. The reason why I'm saying there could be a bounce is that based on RSI, the index bounces back from those points (touching the blue line I drew). With the exception of August-Sept.

STOCK

I was going to do that for MBT. Good thing I hesitated. Foreign houses like Deutsche, JPM, CLSA and Daiwa sold it like there was no tomorrow. Even MEG went back to 3.95, although there wasn't much foreign selling.

Try to look at the following next week:

APO
DFNN
PA is still strong despite the solid postings of more than a hundred millions shares on the sell side on 0.225, 0.23 and 0.2235
LC should still be a buy. Those who sold were merely taking the profits and making the pullback of gold price below 800 as an excuse. Remember, LC was a breakout Wednesday. There is no resistance (based from what I saw on the chart).

FOLKS DEUTSCHE IS STILL A NET BUYER TODAY. +112M
ABN-AMRO is also a net buyer. +168M

STUCK

Tagal Bagal Grabeng 'Intay (Ticker TBGI). With the market correcting again, it has succumbed, finally, to 2.80 (-3.45%). Volume is still minimal though.

SUCK

(Still) ATLAS MINING!!!!!! However, with APO leading the way, there could be upside with this Suck.

Foreign selling of other foreign brokerage houses.

Splash Corp. Traders usually do a FLIP on IPOs on the listing date. What Splash did was a FLOP.

Definitely not sucky - the weekend. Enjoy the weekend folks. Remember always look at the big picture. As long as the fundamental background of a good economy sticks, our stock market should weather this. It's just more difficult to make money for a trader during consolidation phases.

NEWSFLASH! BSP CUTS RATES BY 25 BPS

2007-11-15T01:35:00.001-08:00

You heard the news first right here from a non-news blog (I think).

Go to this site for further exciting news. We will still be dependent on the US Market tonight, as well as have that weekend factor, however, this should cushion any negative performance on the DOW tonight, if at all.

Good luck tomorrow!

November 15 Report

2007-11-14T23:17:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Our market managed to close above 3650 to settle at 3,672.22, down 9 points (-0.26%). The downside was expected as the DOW closed down by 70 points or 13,214 (-0.57%). We probably didn't close down as much as the US, percentage-wise, because of a BSP rate cut decision coming out today. People are probably cautiously bullish that the Central Bank will cut rates, therefore the selling was toned down.

The BSP decision will come out today.

Another reason for the steadiness of the stock market is that the Mining Sector was up 281 points. This is largely due to LC, LCB, PX, as well at the A and B shares of Manila Mining (Ticker: MA, MAB)

Actively traded TEL (3,050 ; up +0.66%) also managed to keep the PSEi afloat. MEG, a stock I was tempted to buy (but did not due to my personal liquidity issues), closed up 4.15 (+1.22%). Foreigners were net sellers, from my estimates. What is interesting is that Deutsche has resumed its buying spree. ABN AMRO likewise was on the green side of the market.

Let's see what Deutsche is buying:

TEL
EDC
SM
ALI
MBT

Except for TEL, all other issues Deutsche bought closed down.

The highlight for today was supposed to be SPLASH (Ticker: SPH), which, instead of making a big splash in the market, closed down -5.56%, below IPO price. SPLAT's top buyers were Angping Abacus and Coyiuto. Why isn't First Metro here? Sellers were Asiasec and ABCap.

Market sentiment today may have hurt its listing. Let's see tomorrow if it recovers.

I will always indicate the DOW's performance as part of the market commentary as the US Market plays a strong factor to local sentiment on any given trading day.

Congratulations on those who were able to buy LC yesterday. I am not sure if this will continue tomorrow. As some readers may have known already, I am a strong proponent of the Weekend Factor and would not advise people to load up on a lot of stocks during Fridays.

STOCK

I am removing FGEN from my daily report. This will fly soon. If not tomorrow, that should come next week. This is not based on rumor, rather, this is based on a rising RSI. The RSI hasn't made a significant uptrend. Keep this on your radar. A break of 62 or 62.50 with very strong volume could indicate a breakout for this stock.

Also keep an eye on MEG, LC, and GEO. MEG is likely to go up soon with good earnings to support a strong buying bias. For LC, this is just a third day breakout play. If you plan to buy LC, my suggestion is let this be a day trade. It might pullback on Monday. However, I could be wrong, the value was at Php 236M. Haven't seen this much volume for this stock in a long, long time.

My other baby, PA:

Stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. Comments, if any.

PA, 0.215 / - 4.44% / Tower Goldstar (The special stockholder's meeting was pushed to November 23, or am I the last to know? In any case, look to buy this stock somewhere on the .195 to .20 range. The stock is still moving in a tight range. You might be able to make some quick profits here.

I am also including Metrobank (Ticker: MBT) into the limelight. Metrobank has been dragged down by the negative sentiments on the financial sector. It is currently trading at the 260-day average, but well below this year's moving averages of 30 and 60. This could breakout soon as this 260 day average should be a strong support. However, the downside is still the sentiment on the sector.

Also look at this second liner: APO. It was up 7.44%, but I doubt a lot of people noticed this because the buying activity was close to 12NN. Top buyers were Abacus and Citisec. Possibility for day trading tomorrow.

STUCK

Philodrill (Ticker: OV). Can anyone tell me why the ticker is OV??? I have decided to go long on this one. It's oil. A no-brainer.

Tagal Bagal Grabeng 'Intay (Ticker TBGI). With the market correcting so far, I am surprised this is still strong, albeit flat, at 2.90. Volume is minimal though I am not surprised.

SUCK

(Still) ATLAS MINING!!!!!!

Foreign selling.

Congress bombing.

Jinggoy hoping he would win in 2010. Ugh.

November 14 Report

2007-11-14T00:26:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

The DOW made a phenomenal comeback just like Bill Clinton and went up by 300 points. We don't know yet if this is a dead cat bounce so this isn't a reason to rejoice just yet. As I've said yesterday, this year's December is shaping up to be a whimper of a late year rally. We're not yet out of the woods yet and the bear is hiding somewhere.

The bombing last night scared me out of my wits, although I didn't lose sleep over it. I didn't watch the news, but I was told it was more of an assassination attempt against a Basilan solon. The market basically shrugged it off by performing at 2.28% upside to close at 3,681 with 82 points up.

TUNA was the most active stock (even I was surprised, looking at the table now), due to a cross by Astra Securities. I'm as clueless as you, so don't ask me for anything. Second most active was GLO. Today was full of greens you'd think you were on the golf course.

The biggest gainer was LC. Watch out for this stock, I really like the chart. It has tested the 0.46 (LC "A" shares) barrier this second time, and with very very strong volume, I think this will go places. Let's just hope that the US market recovers further, there is a BSP rate cut and gold stays at the 800 range.

STOCK

Our babies, PA and FGEN performance:

Stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. Comments, if any.

PA, 0.225 / + 9.76% / Bennett ABCapsec (Tomorrow is the special stockholder's meeting. With the performance of this stock, and a turnover of 328M shares valued at Php 72M, directions point to something substantial and positive

FGEN 61.00 / +0.83/ CLSA ATR (CLSA has turned into a net buyer after selling it by blocks last week. There was a report on the Business World that Senator Arroyo filed a resolution questioning the sale of the government stake of PNOC-EDC. I am not sure if this will have a negative effect on the stock if ever the resolution is approved or passes the Senate)

I am now including LC into the picture. Our top buyers were PEP and Asiasec. Sellers were Lucky and IGC.

STUCK

Philodrill (Ticker: OV). Can anyone tell me why the ticker is OV??? I have decided to go long on this one. It's oil. A no-brainer.

SUCK

ATLAS MINING!!!!!!

GEO

After two straight days of buying, Deutsche has finally decided to sell today. Although they sold a measly -11M worth. CLSA is still a positive buyer at +52M.

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I won't attach the chart of LC anymore. The picture qualities I place here are hella bad.

No November 13 Report

2007-11-13T09:58:00.000-08:00

I was out doing something so I wasn't able to craft the report in early. Come 8PM++, a trader-friend of mine sends a text message and tells me that "may sumabog na bomba sa Congress".

At first I was thinking that the word bomba was an allusion to a bombshell about Arroyo, like maybe a new impeachment filing, or something to do with the bribery inquiry. Then it hit me, it was literally, a bomb. I cursed like crazy.

Whenever the market is at or near a high (based on the chart), something fundamentally wrong happens. And now, just when the US is rebounding, the Congress gets bombed.

With the bombing of Glorietta still fresh in the memories of people, I am starting to think that this year's December will result in a stock market kaput (as opposed to a kaboom). There's really nothing else to celebrate but bad news.

Sigh...... Traders, grit your teeth in the coming days. Investors? Well, I think you better start calling your brokers and find some piece of peace in this mad, mad world.

November 12 Report

2007-11-12T07:12:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

Oh the pain of having to make a report, especially on a down day like today. Our market corrected by -85 points (-2.30%), tracking the Asian benchmark indexes - Tokyo (-2.54%), Hong Kong (-3.88%) , Singapore (-2.46%). Hong Kong has been strongly hit these past few days. China bubble exploding? Maybe it's because they've made a new high recently, but the pullback has been stronger.

Of the top 20 on the actives list, ALI and MWC showed resilience and remained flat from the 9th. MWC has been showing strength in this troubled market. It's a good sign. However, a trader can't make money on a stock that is stuck.

Surprisingly, Deutsche was a net buyer with a value of +205M. For the other big foreign players, they were net sellers. CLSA was another net buyer at +22M worth. Let's see what were they buying?

Deutsche:
SM, TEL, AC, PX and ALI

CLSA:
MWC, EDC, MEG, FLI and FGEN

Local big time player, PEP or Philippine Equity Partners, the managers of the Philequity Fund,
bought the following:
ALI, GMAP, FGEN, MER and EDC

The biggest sectors hit were financials and mining / oil. Financials were due to the negative bias of people on the sector. Mining/Oil is due to extensive profit taking, as well as big corrections in PX, GEO and SCC.

So far, ALI has been showing resilience. I'm just scratching my head over at MEG. Its earnings was impressive (although I'm not a finance guy). The current price is really temptingly delicious to buy in. Chart-wise, well it's unwise at this point. The DOW has to make a rebound tonight.

All signs are pointing to a BSP rate cut - benign inflation as well as a tempered money supply growth. This should bode well for our local market, at least in the near term. Looks like the year end bang will just be a year end whimper for the stock market this year. Tsk tsk.

There are mixed projections as to how the PSEi will end this year, 3,500, 3,800, 4,000. If we close at 4,000, and Citisec recently said that by June 2008, the index would be 4,200, does that mean we won't have any upside by next year?

STOCK

I think it's better not to trade at this moment. If you want to buy, look for bargains in MEG, and FGEN. Don't shop around for basuras just yet.

STUCK

That's me.

SUCK

I hope after tonight, I won't have to put the DOW right here.

The Dollar! It's fallen to the Yen.

GEO. I wanted to day trade earlier (I could've made some money. As well as LC, buy at 0.40, sell at 0.41. But of course, I'm a chicken in these broadbased selling days, so I stayed on the sidelines) GEMINI fans are probably on the edge of their seats once again.

Good luck, and pray hard this time.

November 9 Report (on November 10)

2007-11-09T20:26:00.000-08:00

I still can't log on to Technistock. Too bad. Let's go on with what I have, which is a newspaper.

Market Commentary

Our market was up by 11points yesterday to close at the level of 3,703.66. The mining and oil index spurred the advance of the Index, up a record 491 points. The financials and the property companies were inched down, for some reasons that I'm pondering over right now.

For the financials, let me make a correction, BPI has not yet reported anything (well based from my check yesterday on Technistock). Only RCBC and UBP has reported earnings. This is a fundamental scare for me. Does this mean that our local banks have exposure to sub-prime related investments (I shudder at the oxymoron of placing investments along with the words sub-prime).

For the property companies, I expect that next week, these should go up because of anticipation of a BSP rate cut. One of my top pick would be MEG, which has been beaten black and blue despite the slight increases of the index this week. ALI should also benefit given that they are the leader in the property sector.

The reason why the mining index went up by that much is mainly due to a Felipe Yap stock, Lepanto. I remember that I highlighted this stock in early August at the Absolute Traders forum, too premature I suppose. The sad news about Lepanto? Many got whipsawed around the 0.42-0.43 price (For LCA). More on this one later.

Last night I saw the DOW trying to recover its losses from a hundred point loss. At some point it was down by only 60 points. Now, I checked and was shocked at the numbers. Down over 200 points or -1.69%. Terrible indeed.

On my own, I think that as long as the global economic growth story stays intact, Asia, albeit volatile in the coming days, will stay intact and manage to go up. The problem will largely depend on the US Consumer. Most of the news has still been about the subprime meltdown.

After the FED cut the rate by 50 basis points in September, the market reacted in what we may term as over exuberance. Imagine the DOW didn't just go to 14,000 in just one month last July. It managed to do that from January to July. Then in one month 1000 points was wiped out (August), then again, in one month, it was back right up to 14,000. I shudder to look at the charts right now.

Remember, although an uptrend is more sustaining than a downtrend, it has to be a slow, predictable rise. It shouldn't just skyrocket in a short time interval. It tends to pull back down hard. I think that's what is happening to the US Market, in technical terms. The good thing? If the DOW rebounds next week, we will know for certain if the direction of the charts lead us to bullish territory or bearish pits.

STOCK

Well, I was right with the quick profit taking on DIZON MINES (Ticker DIZ). However, I was wrong with the 3rd day run-up. After hitting 12.75, it closed down 1.00 at 11.75. Look to buy on weakness if you notice that JAP is continuing its buying of said stock.

I was right with AJO too. It opened at 0.155 and went to a high of 0.16. It went to a low of 0.15 but closed at 0.155. Continue on Monday? Probably, there are some people who bought at the recent highs and they have to average down to get out. Just remember that there's that DOW overhang.

Am I saying I'm good? No. What I am doing is sharing with you what I saw in the market. When you are viewing the ticker and the market (for a person with no interest in stocks, it's just a boring screen with numbers and letters) EVERY SINGLE DAY, you tend to build a sense of gut feel, and you tend to remember what the active stocks were and how they were playing out.

Since I wasn't able to see my Technistock, I won't be able to state my usual template of
stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. Comments, if any.

PA 0.205 / -2.36 / Bad sign. They have a special stockholders' meeting next week if I'm not mistaken, and people are getting out? Makes me wonder. Let's see on Monday. It could be some people taking their profits on PA because they lost out on LC.

FGEN 61.00 / +0.83% / Breakout imminent? It's been stuck on that range but there's still buying interest. Keep an eye on this one.

STUCK

TBGI. Closed at 3.00 or flat from the 8th. Why am I highlighting this stock? Am I hyping? No. They made a disclosure this week right? That they have a private placement? Although buying interest has not picked up for this stock, whenever there's a private placement, it's a sign of something major. Watch out!

SUCK

The DOW, what else!

Oil!

The Dollar! It closed Php 42.670 to a dollar.

I have a serious problem with this. Remember, a large chunk of the Philippine economy is contributed by OFW inflows. If the peso further strengthens then we will have a problem with consumer spending this coming December.

The main reason why the local stock market picks up at the tail-end of every year is because consumer consumption is the strongest. It spurs the economy. Now if the same families that were receiving their remittances at Php50 to a dollar before suddenly lose Php 7 for every dollar sent back, that will have disastrous implications.

With this as a backdrop, I'm putting forward my contrarian foot and saying that 2008 might truly be the end of the bull run. My bold prediction is that after March, the market will either turn bearish or go into a major consolidation phase.

I am not an economist of course, that is why I don't intend to compute the numbers. For one, it's quite tedious, and second, I'm really not interested to compute. I don't like Math. I think that's why I chose Technical Analysis over Fundamental Analysis :-D

Lepanto A. I wanted to day trade this stock so I entered at 0.44. After I bought it at 0.44, the weakness started to show. It wouldn't budge 0.44. If you press F7 on Technistock you will see a chart. But it's only a good 6-8 months. My broker said that there was a resistance at 0.46. I opened my chart files, then whoala. Resistance is 0.46. That was why the stock couldn't go past 0.45 after it touched 0.46 intraday!

I had to have a strategy for my daytrade then. I told myself I would cutloss at 0.42, no matter what happened. There were moments of hesitation, and by jove, I really had a hard time deciding because at 0.42 it was still being bought up (that was around 10:30 in the morning). But eventually I stuck to my plan. I exited at a loss.

I wanted to buy back at 0.42 when I saw some strength. It did bounce back to 0.44, but eventually closed at 0.40.

Think about that, if I didn't cut my losses at 0.42, then I'd lose even more at 0.40. Not only that, I would panic even more with the DOW closing down again last night.

However, one thing I've learned is, if you want to CUT LOSS. Wait for the rebound. If I had cut loss at 0.44 then I would only lose in fees and commissions. At any rate, it could have gone the other way (i.e. what if it didn't rebound to 0.44 and actually just made a freefall to 0.40?).

*****************************************************************
Let's look at the weekly chart of PSEi to see what will likely happen next week.

I won't attach technical indicators anymore as it will eat up the space for the price chart of PSEi. The RSI is going down. MACD seems to point to a short-term correction.

The picture quality is butt ugly and for malicious minds my diagram actually resembles a phallic symbol hehe. I didn't purposely make the diagram that way okay :-)

Anywho, next week is critical. If we fall to somwhere near 3,650 and lower, we will have a deep correction once again. Hopefully, anticipations of a BSP rate cut would push us to go sideways. At this juncture, I think I'd rather have a consolidation phase. The reason why there might be a correction, in my view, is that we are still near the top. With the RSI pointing to a bearish sign, there's chances of a correction. (Getting jitters).

Good luck to us all next week!

No November 8 Report (Well at least this 2:50AM of November 9)

2007-11-09T10:54:00.000-08:00

I was out this afternoon on a writing assignment that I had no time to make my report.

I have a personal trading experience to share. And I will include this in the post tomorrow.

The November 8 report shall come out on November 9, and this time I'll just use the newspaper for my data. I can't connect to Technistock anymore. So for those who, for whatever nocturnal reasons, want to open the program. IT DOESN'T WORK AT THIS TIME OF DAY (or night).

The headlines of CNBC have been bearish since Monday. Does Media play a big role in dragging a market? Is the American consumer really that bearish already and belt-tightening their obese waists? I don't live there, but why do I think that, some of the news there are a bit over-exaggerated?

In any case, as of this writing, the DOW is down by 160 points or -1.21%. Bakit naman kasi DOW ang tawag nila???? DOW is so homonymous (if there's such a word hehe) to DOWN. Sana katunog ng UP, or BULL, or SKYROCKET na lang. Haaaaay. Sana wag maipit sa Lunes.
(In English: Why is the DOW called the DOW when it is so homonymous (if there's such a word *laughing sound*) to DOWN. Why not make it sound like UP, or BULL, or SKYROCKET instead? Sigh. Hopefully we don't get stuck on Monday with our remaining positions)

I will be doing some retouching of this blog and the other. I'll be busy this weekend so I'll just update some entries, and time willing, maybe do the long overdue retouching. (I have to understand some html mumbo jumbo).

Ciao.

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Thank you gwen for visiting this blog and linking this :-) I highly appreciate your comments.

I am always trying to overdo myself to make my blog more presentable and readable. This means I'm doing something right hehe.

I'll be at the next AT event! Promise :D Just had a conflict of schedule on the previous one.

November 8, 2007 Report

2007-11-07T22:24:00.000-08:00

Market Commentary

With another sharp nosedive on the Dow last night (closed at 13,300, down by 360 points, or -2.64%), it was inevitable for the Phisix to follow suit. Today, our closed weaker at 3,692 , -96 points down and tracking the Dow's percent fall, we were down by -2.54% from the 7th.

Looking at the Actives List is like looking at a sea of blood. Everything was red, except for, surprise surprise, Dizon Mines (Ticker DIZ). I joined in the fray today, but did not day trade. My broker was right (hopefully), in that if the market is down but this one is going up, there could be further support tomorrow. Although on hindsight, I forgot tomorrow's a Friday. So I might exit my position in Dizon tomorrow.

(I have written about the weekend factor. Please view it here.)

So far this year, buying opportunities arose during exactly times like these, when everyone is selling. Remember, most of the times, when the market nosedives, some people join in the selling because of panic. It is when people panic that there is a possibility of buying into shares at good prices.

The biggest drags for the market were AC, TEL and MEG.

Keep an eye on oil prices. We are near $100 a barrel already. If it breaches 100, this will definitely mean even higher prices. Time to go back to riding the jeep. There was a good comment last night by the lovely Erin Burnett on CNBC, traditionally stocks went down when oil prices went up. This time around, stocks were going up AS oil was rising. So we wonder, what will happen to the stock market when it goes past 100?

I just wonder, will super oil laggards OV, OPM and PERC start to move already????????

STOCK

I'm putting DIZ here. Tomorrow will complete the 3-day run-up that usually happens for stocks locally. If you've been actively trading this year, there seems to be a unique pattern across all basuras. Most of their prices went up for three consecutive days, then kaput.

I'm not saying it's a buy, just keep this on your monitor and have that mindset of profit taking. This means that if you are only buying in tomorrow, be sure not to forget to get out fast.

If you have the balls for it, try looking at AJO. It might have a slight rebound tomorrow. Buy somewhere at 0.15 or 0.155. Just remember to get out fast too.

Other picks I chose for the week were the ff. These are listed as stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. I've added comments if applicable.

PA 0.21 / -4.55% / Goldstar RS Lim (Still trading within a tight range. Too late to remove this from the list since tomorrow is the last day for the week. These top buyers are traders. GS's average price was 0.215, RS Lim's at 0.21. If you are going for a longer trading position, 0.205 or 0.21 could be good support prices)

FGEN 60.50 / Flat / JPMorgan Deutsche (3rd day of Foreign buying. These are BIG foreign brokerages, so they are probably seeing something we don't. Not only that, you have to realize that a large cap like FGEN, holding stable despite a bloody day like today is a BULLISH sign)

STUCK

I am displacing AT from here to SUCK.

TBGI. Despite the weaker close of the market, this basura managed to stay afloat at 3.00, although down by -1.64% from yesterday which was at 3.05)

SUCK

Oil is making record highs once again. The resistance is probably around 100. There are two scenarios, one is that it breaks it, the other is a strong pullback for oil. This will have serious implications for those holding on to mining stocks. So just be wary.

In terms of Php value
Deutsche sold -203M
CLSA sold -163M
UBS sold -195M

Even Philequity was net seller at the following:
PEP sold -163M
Wealth sold -258M

Only JPMorgan was a net buyer at +287M

For newbies, foreign buying and selling has a serious implication on the direction of the market. So this should always be on your list of things for monitoring.

Friday tomorrow. Don't forget the weekend factor.

November 7, 2007 Report

2007-11-07T04:03:00.000-08:00

STOCK

Lucky 7 today? Maybe. I was lucky enough to day trade Dizon Mines (Ticker: DIZ) today. So am I all smiles? Not really. I feel a tinge of regret because the greed in me wished I had bought more hehe.

Wow, I just looked at the closing of the market and saw that we were actually up by +14.63 points today. 14 is a multiple of 7. Hehe. I've heard that some people actually look to Astrology as a guide to trade the markets. I have yet to meet one though.

We can thank ALI, which closed at 16 (+3.23%), and TEL at 3,045 (+0.50%) with the boost to the market. However, at one point we were actually up by 28 points (still a number divisible by 7!). I was actually disappointed, what with the US closing up with 100 points, and an expectation of a rate cut by the BSP and a tame October inflation (which could provide room for the BSP to do just that).

Mining stocks. They are still the ones to look at. Philex is slowly losing steam. Atlas still sucks. Apex Mining (Ticker: APX/B), now there's something. Apex supposedly has a lot of gold reserves. Lepanto has been stuck in a range as well. Gold is above $800 already. With the dollar falling, expect commodities like black gold (oil) and gold to go up further.

Globe declared a special dividend. I'm no expert at computing dividend yields but for smart traders, this could be a chance to ride Globe. Whenever there is an announced dividend, the stock moves up prior to its ex-date.

Let's monitor our Week's pick, details are: closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. I've added comments.

ZIP is now officially known as SLI. Well a change in name didn't make a change in its performance. I'm removing this from my radar for now. So no more details.

I am also removing OV & TBGI from my monitor for now. So with APO and AT.

PA 0.22/ Flat / F_Yap Citisec (For a relatively basura stock, it's amazing there's still activity here. Not only that it's still closing above 0.21.)
FGEN 60.50 / Flat / Citisec JPMorgan (Actually went to Php 62 apiece, before being sold down by ATR and CLSA)

I wasn't able to attend the CAF (Chart Analysis Forum) of Absolute Traders last night, but a friend of mine said these stocks were talked about as potential buys -

PA
AT
COL
IPVG
ALI
PCOR

STUCK

Still Atlas Mining. Oh dear Atlas, when thou art moving?

SUCK

My broker told me that there was news last night about mall hours being asked to close early due to our looming power crisis. I wasn't able to see the news, but from the looks of it, it could've weighed sentiments on SMPH, closing at 11.50 or down by -2.13% from the 6th. Top sellers were Deutsche, CLSA and ATR. I haven't been tracking this stock so I don't know if they have actually been selling since Monday. I looked at the chart and it seems it's made a new low today in two weeks' time.

Oil made a new high, however, most of our oil stocks PERC - OPM and OV suck big time. Even PCOR. Sometimes it's not so much as fundamental news as it is on just plain chart trading or pure trading tactic. OPM, OV and PERC are stocks that traders can 'play around' with because one fluctuation = profit already.

Based on my estimates, there is still (again) NFS (Net Foreign Selling).

Good luck tomorrow!

Call of the Bandwagontrader **Occasionally I want to comment on something**
People say that when you overtrade you actually make the broker richer. I dispute that. Maybe in the US that is the case, but in the local scene, try to look at these computations. I won't be exact with the prices, but let's take Ayala Land (Ticker: ALI) as an example. ALI is a good stock, so I won't hear criticisms like this being a volatile stock.

Let's hypothetically say that you trade millions of pesos worth. You bought 70,000 shares of ALI. I won't show you anymore how the fees were computed to provide brevity. To dispel arguments, we are talking of a single person transaction. Of course, when the volume of a broker's clients is taken into account, that would be a different story, and a different argument altogether.

Scenario A: The Buy and Hold Person.
If you bought ALI sometime April, you might have gotten it at 14. And since this person believes in "if you trade too much, you'll make your broker rich", he holds until today November the 7th (a lucky day) and sells it at 16. He'd have earned approximately in excess of Php 120,000 (net of broker fees, et al.). His broker probably earned about Php 11,000 or so. So who got rich in these scenario? Not the broker of course, so the axiom is proven here.

Scenario B: The Trader
Here's a person who was able to read his charts well. Obviously there's no hard and fast rules with regards to cutting losses or 'timing the market', but if you have a background in technical analysis, and also have the composure to cut your losses (or protect your profits, whichever way you see it), let's say the same person bought at 14 also, then seeing ALI fall from 18 to 16, he eats his pride and decides to sell, and thereby protect his profits, at 15.75 a piece. He makes a profit of about Php 105,000. His broker makes Php 10,412.50. So axiom busted once. (I purposely make the person sell lower than 16 to prove a point that Person B will still earn more money)

Next, this guy, sees ALI falling back to 14 during the August nightmare, there are people who think that stocks that have went back to their lows are bargains, whether or not he is a chartist. So let's say this guy is not a chartist, and he figures, "Hey, I have an opportunity to buy ALI again at 14." And so he does. He keeps it until today, the lucky 7th day of November, and sells it at 16. He sells it so we can make an example out of him hehe. He makes another cool Php 120,000. His broker? Just another Php 10,000 or so. So axiom is asskicked the second time around!

Now here's the kicker, who made more money? Person A or Person B?

To close. I am not a broker. Just a person with a brain in between his ears. Don't believe everything that you read. If you don't believe what I say it's alright, but all I can say is that these are based on personal experience (except the part about trading in millions ok hehe). We must understand that there will always be volatility in the stock market. Smart people will tell you that it is in volatility that you may lose, or in my opinion EARN money. Not only that, even on day trading, at a certain percentage, you actually earn more than your broker.

Ciao for now.

The November 6, 2007 Report

2007-11-05T20:27:00.000-08:00

STOCK

The 6th of November, it's a gloomy Tuesday what with the weather. I can say the same for the local market. We were at one point up by about 16 points if I was not mistaken, and we closed almost flat. This is superb considering that we are slaves to the Dow's performance. (The Dow closed down 51 points to settle at 13,543).

However, if you track the Asian performance today, we are actually the rebel. Major indexes were up today, albeit slightly (Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore). Yesterday, we were also the rebel, the rest of Asia was bleeding while we closed up. This could change later, I can't find a solid news site at this point. I checked on Bloomberg though and most Asian marts were up. I'm writing at noontime as I'll be doing something else later.

PSEi closed at 3,773.63, down by -1.18 or -0.0313% vs yesterday. This is due to, well surprise surprise, AC. It closed at 630, down -2.33% vs yesterday. The rise in TEL, to 3,030, or +1.85% is offset the losses of AC a bit. As I've said, TEL is such a big weight that it can turn the index up (or down).

Watch out for PLDT's investor briefing today. I hope their earnings come out strong as this will be a leading indicator for the index. Globe will follow suit tomorrow.

Let's monitor our Week's pick, details are: closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. I've added comments

ZIP 3.00 / -7.69% / ATR SB Equity (There were probably a lot of people shaken out of here. It was strong early trading at 3.35, with buying support of 5M postings at 3.30 and 3.25, Then all of a sudden heavy selling by DAMarket and DWCapital killed a lot of traders.)
OV 0.03/Flat / Asiasec SB Equity (4 for 1 share overhang. Usually prices will drift lower. But let's see what will happen to oil prices tonight on US Trading. Long term, oil prices will still go up.)
PA 0.22/ Flat / BPI Ansaldo (The close was forced at 0.22, only one buyer at this price at the close so I prefer to look at the close as 0.215)
TBGI 3.10/ Flat / Abacus BPI (Thank you JONA for your comment. I'm not privy to the details of TBGI but right now, there's still buying although you'd expect that after a disclosure, it should be going up, not flat or down)
FGEN 60.50 / +0.83%/ Deutsche Valuequest (Block cross sale by JPMorgan at 57.00)
AT 15.75/Flat/Abacus Goldstar (Getting impatient with this)
APO 2.36/-0.84%/Goldstar Kings (follows AT)

* On a sidenote, I don't have all of the above shares. I'm still waiting for the right time to enter into some of the above.

I was able to daytrade AJO. So yay!

Try to look at DIZ. There's still support at 9.90.

STUCK

Atlas Mining. Nuff said.

SUCK

PEP. Gapped up today only to close at yesterday's closing price.
Based on my estimates, there is still NFS (Net Foreign Selling).

See you tomorrow on another exciting trading day!

The November 5, 2007 Report

2007-11-05T05:26:00.000-08:00

STOCK

The PSEi inched up today by +15.84 points, thanks to gains in Ayala Corp, and BPI, an Ayala subsidiary. Biggest decline of index-linked issue was TEL, which closed at ,2975 still far away from its close of 3,100 (-4%) same day last month.

This is amazing, considering that Asia-wide, all other indexes declined. One reason could be that stock market participants are expecting a rate cut. (If we still go up this week, then it's a sell on news once the rate cut does come out.) Or that earnings have still been generally above expectations. Supposedly PLDT is to produce quarter results today, but I haven't seen any yet on the net. Maybe tomorrow morning.

If its (PLDT) stock is any indication, well either the profits are just par for the course or just plain old profit taking from its highs. PLDT is such a big weight in the index that when it comes down, it pulls the index with it.

Let's monitor our Week's pick, details are: closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 3 buyers

ZIP 3.25 / +3.17% / PCCI ATR
OV 0.03/-3.23% / Coyiuto BPI (Coyiuto has been buying a lot lately, profit taking was due
to retreat of Asian oil prices)
PA 0.22/ +2.33% / Goldstar BDO
TBGI 3.10/ -3.13% / ABN-AMRO Belson (A disclosure came out later in the day about a
private placement of 35M shares to a foreign
investor) ABANGAN ITO!
FGEN 60.00/Flat/Deutsche JPMorgan (If you were a long term investor, say 1-2 mos, this
could be a good entry price)
AT 15.75/Flat/PEP Armstrong (still within that tight range)
APO 2.38/-2.46%/Goldstar Yu (follows AT)

STUCK

Well other than some of my stock positions, there's really nothing much to say about stuck issues. hehe.

Well look at Atlas Mining. There's a perfect example of a stuck stock. The mining stocks have been going up, yet a company like Atlas Mining, which is ALREADY shipping metals (I forgot what type), is the laggard.

SUCK

Nothing sucky at this point other than the credit crisis. Some stucks haven't reached their Q2 highs like the Ocier stocks - BEL, SINO, and APC.

Look out for these two too:

PCP
PEP

They were being jockeyed up during Q2 when rumors were rife of backdoor this and backdoor that.

**********************************************************************************
There you have it, my first formal report. Hope you guys like it. As much as I can, I'll do it daily. I still have to find time to tweak this blog to look better. I really hate these 'free' templates. Then again, it's free, so I can't expect anything mind-blowing hehe.

What to Expect for November 5-9

2007-11-04T05:05:00.000-08:00

The DOW JONES seesawed like crazy last week so I suppose this could be a good indicator of what to expect for the PSEi this upcoming week. So far, of the blue chip companies listed in the PSE, only ABS-CBN, GMA7 and Meralco have thus far released their earnings report (if my memory serves me right).

An interesting PSEi component to see is the Financials. So far only RCBC and BPI has released their earnings. Of the two RCBC posted a very wide margin of growth. It should be expected given that BPI is a monster in terms of its size vs. RCBC. BPI net income grew by 11%, as expected of a big, mature company.

The reason I'm saying Financials are interesting is that this is the component most hit by selling in the US. Ours has been no different. It will be interesting if our local banks mention anything about exposure to asset backed securities, particularly those related sub-prime credit.

Our market will likely be volatile next week. On the other hand, it could be buoyed by expectations of our local BSP doing a rate cut. Earnings will still be the main ingredient to push up stocks for the last two months of 2007. If big company earnings, particularly real estate and banks post better than outlook growth, we'll have happy days by mid-November.

*******************

There are times when you buy on news. This is because even though the market is small, there 'market insiders' won't be aware of everything 100% of the time. Therefore, the stock has not yet been jockeyed up. Sometimes, it could be that the news reports the company as having beat estimates, or having a new acquisition, rights offer, etc. As such, I would like to add news wires soon. (Read below to find out more).

Look out for more company disclosures, especially of earnings in the coming weeks. I would like to put a chart of the PSE here but there's a problem with the program now. Apologies!

Look out for the following stocks too. These stocks are not based on charts but based on what I saw in Technistock during the last trading day last week. They're all basura stocks, naturally. And I don't mean that in a cynical way. If you are a trader, you thrive on volatile issues. And when we say volatile, 99% of the time, they're basura stocks.

ZIP- could do a PA.
Oil stocks particularly OV.
PA
TBGI (silently bought up by Abacus)
FGEN
AT-the laggard in the mining stocks boom thus far, could spring a surprise
APO * if Atlas goes up, then naturally APO should too

As you can see, these stocks that I picked are based on logic. I'm trying to find out if I can earn money by thinking logically, and understanding what other people are doing and not doing in our market.

See you all this coming week and hopefully we have a better week. Fundamentally, there is still that credit crisis overhang. We'll look to the charts for more info when my program is up and running.

**********************************************************************************
I spent @#*$(&(* 2 hours tweaking here and there, trying to improve the look of my blog all I got was "Error. Error. Error." I thought technology was supposed to help us???? What kind of help is "Error." Somebody talk to me in English please! I wanted to add news wires but it doesn't work. I thought it was just simply cut and paste. hehe. I may have knowledge about the stock market, but when it comes to html, xml, etc etc, all I know is... nothing! I hope someone'll help me out here soon. Wasted time! @#$^!

Continuous Updating

2007-11-02T11:40:00.000-07:00

I will continually improve the look of my blog.

Thank you for dropping by.

A Hard Habit to Break

2007-10-31T09:15:00.000-07:00

I recently met up with ex-office mates of mine from a previous life. We went to a karaoke bar, and (they) belted out some songs. One of his favorites was a Chicago classic, A Hard Habit to Break.
He doesn't read blogs (hopefully), and even if he does, he'll know I'm referring to him (Idol!).
The title here is a tribute to his voice, and a good segue to my favorite pastime - trading.

Trading is habit forming. This is a sentence a newbie trader should know.

I get up early in the morning, to look at charts, read the papers, talk to my broker, maybe even have my breakfast. All because trading is habit forming.

I stay up late at night, watching CNBC trying to decipher what is happening in the US market and what effect it will have on our local market 5 hours later. All because trading is habit forming.

I write extensively, trying to manage two blogs about investments (and the stock market too!). All because trading is habit forming.

I read books on trading, on technical analysis, none (yet) on fundamental analysis, none (yet) on trading psychology. All because trading is habit forming.

I talk to my friends about the stock market. I suddenly become wide awake when the topic suddenly drifts to the stock market. I talk endlessly about how wonderful a place the stock market is (most of the times). All because trading is habit forming.

I watch the stock market using my Technistock program through bullish, bearish and sideways times. All because trading is habit forming.

But I must forewarn some of you though, as Chicago will also tell you about the stock market:

I guess I thought you'd be here forever
Another illusion I chose to create
You don't know what ya got until its gone
And I found out just a little too late

This phrase is for the people out there who don't cut their losses, who think the bull run will be in eternal continuance, who think that JOH is a good stock. Please be careful. And I say this, because yes, you guessed it. TRADING IS SO DAMN HABIT FORMING!

The Weekend Factored!

2007-10-26T04:52:00.000-07:00

I wrote in a previous entry that during weekends there is a flight of cash from the stock market, i.e. people are cashing in on their gains. There are many reasons, and two of them was :

3. The US factor. If you buy a stock on Friday, and then for some reason, the DOW corrected big time Friday night (our time), then you'd be hard-pressed to sell it come Monday.
4. Threat of coups, other circumstantial events that could suddenly spark a sell off

I wrote this October the 10th. Who would've known that on the 19th, Glorietta would get bombed, and the Dow would be bombed down by triple digits???

Now, it could have been an ominous statement or just coincidence.

I wouldn't have thought that anything of the 4th kind would actually happen. But it did. And that was a day when the market actually closed higher by almost 50 points, if memory serves me right.

For this long weekend, I'm still heavily invested. There are two major factors to consider for the next trading week, albeit very shortened.

1. A potential rate cut by the US FED
2. Continued earnings reports from both US and local companies

Today, I didn't follow my own rule of BEING VISUAL with my trading today and therefore lost out on Trans-Asia (Ticker: TA). When I last viewed it it was doing 1.78, I went out of my room for about 5-10 minutes. When I got back it hit 2.00. Crap.

The good thing is that I have DIZ. For my trade on DIZ, I relied heavily on my Technistock program. Angping (the brokerage) was accumulating the stock even during the days it was going down. I couldn't interpret the stock's chart but I decided to risk a little, given his success with GEMINI. So I just bought some, just a small position so it won't hurt if it went the other way. For whatever reason, it zoomed up to 11 today! I hope there's follow through buying on Tuesday. For this instance, I think I was a speculator, not a trader. Good thing I speculated right!

Have a great long weekend everyone!

The Mechanical Trader: Prologue

2007-10-23T11:18:00.000-07:00

I am by no means an expert trader yet, it's something of a work-in-progress. I have some personal demons, conflicts, perceptions, misconceptions, emotions that I still have to deal with so I'm betting on a long position. Heh.

I'm currently reading a book entitled, The Way of the Turtle. It's a book I picked up somewhere. I'm a bookworm, as I would affectionately call myself. To others, it's probably and simply called, 'n-e-r-d'. I don't mind. I still have tons of reading materials to go through. Bill Gates is a nerd. A rich nerd. Nerds are in good company, yes? Take Warren Buffet, does he look like a jock to you?

The trading war you wage in the stock market is an alchemy of intellect, gut feel, and experience. Experience is the best among the three, however, it's still the most expensive. Since I have experience trading our market, albeit short compared to others, I've devoted myself to this thing called "continuous education".

I do my "continuous education" when there is nothing to trade. I still believe that everyday is an opportunity to make money. Proof of it was Monday. Those who had guts bought GEO at 2.30. PA at 0.18. Then sold on the same day for an 8% profit. Not bad for a day when the market closed down triple digits. I know this because I saw it with my own eyes. But me, well, I was more of on the safer side.

So far, I've read chapter 1 of the book. Honestly, I did not understand a thing. This is due mostly to the fact that the author, Curtis Faith, was talking primarily about futures contracts, something I have nil knowledge of. However, when chapter 2 came, I can tell you, that this is so far the most important and often quoted factor in trading FAILURE - human emotion.

I have a degree in Psychology. We humans have stereotypes, beliefs, and attitudes about everything. These are STUBBORN in nature and can be a blessing or a curse. In trading, it's most usually a curse.

I can go on and on and on like the Energizer Bunny about this so I'll keep it short. If you are of a trader's bent when it comes to the stock market (as opposed to being an investor), you have to be devoid of emotion. It is hard and near impossible. But as I read through the book, I'll share with you my take on the subject, my personal experience dealing with HUMAN EMOTION, as well as share with you key highlights from this jewel of a book.

See you in the next chapter!

Bloody Monday

2007-10-22T03:23:00.000-07:00

We were down -3.98% today to close at 3,667.87.

If we breakdown a further 100 points, this could be a bad turn of events for the local market.

3,600 and 3,500 are very strong psychological support. A breakdown of these two, especially of 3,500 will just put the momentum to the selling side.

Today is just a knee jerk reaction of what happened Friday. However, the fundamental story behind equities, especially of foreign ones - don't look that good anymore. There are certain quarters saying that the global economy will likely slow down.

I won't post further. I think the market bleeding is enough, I won't let my fingers join in too.

Good luck tomorrow! (and tonight, for the DOW).

@(#&$(#&$(*&

2007-10-18T21:11:00.000-07:00

I was going to post a stock I wanted others to read. I bought in already. Damn stupid *@#$&*(@#&$. I hope it's not a bomb or the Phisix'll get bombed on Monday. If the DOW manages to close high tonight, then we won't have to panic come Monday. It might actually be a good time to bargain hunt.

Read the latest news. *@#$&(*#&$

RSI: Really Something Indicator :-)

2007-10-16T09:10:00.000-07:00

This is a story about RSI and how I bought in at a good price and sold out near the top on one stock - OV. This happened weeks ago. I held back on writing this one earlier because I wanted to focus on writing this one so you'd learn from my victory. I certainly learned my mistake with SINO though. The RSI was right, but I was the one who was wrong because I got in too early.

I figured since the market is probably now going to correct, it's best to stay on the sidelines, accumulate some cash then hoard up on stocks once we're back on the uptrend. Trading can be addictive, so learn to be patient. So given this rationale, let's go back to my story.

I bought this stock (Philodrill, Ticker: OV) sometime during the first week of October. I bought in at 0.28 because on that particular day I saw a lot of buying momentum going on. (I can't find my receipt so I don't know the exact date sorry!). Not only that, the seller's price was being bought up!

I went in, because the trendline was definitely intact (black bold line). I held it when it reached 0.29, 0.30, then 0.31. As the famous Ron Nathan once said - POP COLA (Prolong our profits, cut our losses aggressively). You can make money doing tsupita trades, but at the end of the day, you'll be costing yourself more because you're paying broker fees during every trade.

When it reached 0.31, I went back to the chart. Notice the bearish divergence of RSI vis-a-vis the price chart? Well I called up my broker, and then gave him the order to sell. My broker actually asked me why I wanted to sell it. Well looking back at it now, I'm just happy I gave that order.

After I sold it, (and as in most instances), it went up to 0.32. I thought for a moment my decision was wrong. So I said to myself, if I want to buy back, I'll wait for the next day and look at the behavior. Well the next day, it went from 0.31 to 0.29, and it's been downhill since. I'm looking to buy back soon. It's still consolidating at the 0.28 levels. It'll soon rebound I'm sure, especially now that oil has hit $ 88 a barrel.

So RSI, here's to you! Cheers!

So folks, the key learnings here are:
1. Keep an eye on only a few stocks. Don't mind if other stocks are making 10%, 15%, 50%. KEEP YOUR FOCUS!

2. Always, always, always, always, have a trend line. Remember history repeats itself, not only that, an uptrend almost always will continue unless there is a very strong and clear reversal sign.

3. Don't be greedy (I could have waited to see if it could make a higher high, but I chose to keep my profits. A guaranteed profit is better than a guaranteed sleepless night)

4. Have faith. This sounds religious, but you will learn eventually, that you must have faith in only two things - yourself and the chart. There will ALWAYS be intraday corrections. You didn't buy a stock to hold it for just one day right???

5. Don't just look at the ticker. Look at the stock review! Look who's buying, how fast the buying was, if the people are buying the seller's price or it's just being bought at market price. Look at the volume review - buy up vs sell down. My subscribed program, Technistock, has helped me a lot. This is the best subscription I ever had since FHM (haha just kidding), albeit a lot more expensive.

Remember, in the stock market, especially when it comes to trading, it's important to have VISUALS. This is also the reason I don't trade when I'm not in front of my computer. My confidence goes bearish.

6. Finally, if you are a trader, you must monitor daily, especially if you are holding volatile stocks. Volatility can be your best friend... or your worst enemy.

*** I know I promised I'll update this bland blog's look, I'll do so once I've come up with something. I really really like "The Stock, Stuck, Suck Report", but I have yet to make a good study/report hehe so I may need to change the heading for my blog soon. I'll still try to make reports so you can judge a stock for yourself :-) I'll also soon publish my "A Bandwagontrader's Guide to Making Money in the Stock Market" on this blog once I'm satisfied with my skills, and experience.

The Weekend Factor

2007-10-10T01:22:00.000-07:00

I've only been (actively) trading at the start of 07. Recently, I've realized that on Fridays, there's either heavy profit taking or very minimal trading.

I attribute this to some of these factors:

1. People want to reposition their portfolios
2. They're happy with the gains they've made over the past 4 / 5 days.
3. The US factor. If you buy a stock on Friday, and then for some reason, the DOW corrected big time Friday night (our time), then you'd be hard-pressed to sell it come Monday.
4. Threat of coups, other circumstantial events that could suddenly spark a sell off
(FIRE SALE!)

OR...

People just want to spend their gains on the weekend.

During the great bull run of the first half, I was making money. But because I was making money, I didn't quite learn the fine art of doing cut loss. I made myself believe that hey, this is a bull market, it'll come right back up. 70-80% of the time, it was true. But after July, I've appreciated the importance of aggressively cutting my losses. BUT!, I only cut my losses for the following reasons:

1. If the stock I bought didn't go my direction, i.e. UP!
2. If my timing was wrong (my personal example is LND, I thought it was a breakout, but after revisiting the stock by viewing the RSI, it was at its resistance point! I immediately called my broker to sell it off at whatever price. Good thing I did that time. This happened late September).
3. RSI divergence (bearish). This third one has been a reliable friend of mine (except for SINO).

The question is, when do you say that you should be cutting losses already? It's a tricky question. Sometimes you see it on the chart, sometimes you don't. What I've learned so far, is that you somehow build instincts as you trade longer. You have to look at the buyers and sellers. Who is buying, and who is selling. Our market is such a small market, you know who's the players and who're the real "strong hands", in tradespeak.

For this long weekend, if you're a safe player, I suggest you just watch the Dow's performance over the next two days. If they make new all time highs, expect a spectacular run come next week (so hold on to your positions). If, not, the correction next week will be a good time for you to accumulate on good stocks. When I say good, it doesn't always mean blue chips. It could be basura stocks near their support lines and a good time to accumulate them at bargain prices.

I'll be busy in the next few days (as I've been these past few ones), so I won't be able to update this here blog of mine. I've no stock picks yet because recently I just rode the momentum of the buying and selling of stocks. Chart viewing was just to confirm if I should get in or out.

Good luck on this last quarter! This is the time to recover the losses (if any) we incurred last August.

Project Sino: Failure!

2007-10-05T03:23:00.000-07:00

One word. Failure.

Failure sucks. It's so sucky that it can't get any suckier than this.

There was one key formula that I forgot to consider. One very important thing.

It's buying momentum. There is no clear measure, at least none that I know of, to indicate the velocity of the buying. I am 101% dependent on my program, Technistock. I am able to look at who is buying, and how fast the buying is.

The downside is that I have to be at my desktop to monitor everyday. Then again, being a trader, you really do have to monitor everyday.

I'm still exploring Technical Analysis. I've certainly found one tool that's worth using. I still believe in the RSI. I personally believe that I have to focus on what works for me. There are many stocks out there, and I also believe that you only choose stocks that you've had a big winning percentage with.

If you lost in one stock before, let's say for example, this one, SINO. Then the next time it shoots up, be wary and scrutinize the charts. Personally, I've never had any gain when I positioned with VUL. So I gave up trading on that stock (although I love the 10 year chart)

The good thing is that I was able to join the ride with PA. I hope you guys did too! :-D

Project SINO

2007-10-03T13:18:00.000-07:00

Well today (October 4) SINO closed 0.44 still at the moving average. I checked on the weekly chart and it looks like it's going to breakout tomorrow.

I hope I'm right. The timing was too early on hindsight.

Our risks to the breakout will be a non-cut stance by the BSP.

Good luck to us!

SINO? SINO? SINO NGA?

2007-09-28T08:23:00.000-07:00

Thursday Log:

Well, SINO closed at 0.42. It didn't reach the target of 0.53 nor anywhere near that figure, even though the market went up a hundred points.

Friday Log:

Well, SINO closed at 0.42 (still). It didn't reach the target of 0.53 (yet) nor anywhere near that figure (wait for it). SINO closed at 0.42 (still) even though the market went down by -4.61 (0.1289%)

So what happened?

Look at the moving averages below:

SINO just crossed the 65 day moving average. It touched the 130 day average slightly and pulled back. SINO will have to settle first at 0.40, and then make a major bounce back. The support now is 0.40.

What does this mean? It means that SINO hit a resistance point (i.e. the 65 day moving average). So it's probably testing that point. (The 65 day MA is 0.43) SINO hasn't convincingly closed at 0.44 on strong volume yet.

So what is the strategy? Just keep this on your radar. The problem with SINO is that it takes it lead from APC. So you must also check if APC is being bought.

One rule with bandwagon trading is that you ride the train when it's moving. And when we say moving, we mean moving up.

And that's the golden rule #1 of bandwagon trading.

"Join the ride up."

Your valuable tools:

Ticker
Intra Day Volume Review
Chart

The limitation is that you have to be monitoring stocks daily. If you plan to buy and hold it for a longer period of time because you can't monitor daily. Try looking at the weekly chart as well.

Let's see next week if our little experiment for SINO worked. Have a nice weekend to all!

When Are We Ever Gonna Get Noticed??

2007-09-25T02:31:00.000-07:00

Sorry I wasn't able to post yesterday. I was doing some serious stuff. Really. Anyhow...

Whenever I hear broadcasters in CNBC about investing in Asia (ex-China), I always put my ears closer to the boob tube. They call some parts of Asia emerging markets. Apparently, the Philippines is not even in that list called emerging markets.

I wonder where we are? Submerging market?

Watch this clip if it's working. This guy's suggesting that people look at Indonesia. This clip takes a while to load, and I'm using broadband. Good luck to those using dial up hehe :-) Peace!

So Why Indonesia?

The Good
1. Strong domestic economy
2. Possible surprise in deceleration of inflation in 2008, leading to rate cuts
3. Consumer related stocks should do well

The Bad
1. Commodity stocks not so vibrant because although they export crude oil, they also import refinery products, so they're a net importer. Possible Japanese investments in oil companies could turn it around
2. Negatives: Election, political situation is always tricky in Indonesia.

The Ugly
1. Where's the Philippines?

If he wants tricky political situations, just look at the map, a little to the right, and you've spotted it. The beautiful islands of The Philippines!

*****************************

Here's another interesting clip. Mr. Bob Bruner draws parallels between "The Panic of 1907" to today's market volatility.

*****************************

Experiment #2 SINO and the RSI Divergence.

1. RSI Divergence confirmed at break of trend line. Price broke out of the 30 day moving average.
2. Volume is not convincing on a longer term picture, however, in the recent week, strong volume performance.
3. Watch out tomorrow. It is now lying closely to the 65 and 130 day moving average. If it breaks that resistance tomorrow. See you at somewhere near 0.50 to 0.53.

Good Luck!

* Disclaimer: Please be aware that this is not a recommendation. Chart reading can be subjective at times. Trade at your own risk.

My Recent Discovery: RSI Divergence

2007-09-20T20:43:00.000-07:00

The market still isn't on a growth trajectory, at least based on volume. It crossed the 130-day moving average (blue line), but look at the volume, it's not as convincing. See below (this is as of yesterday).

September 21

Our market closed down -18.65 points to close at 3,423.73, (-0.54%) . The Dow was also down last night by -48.86 (-0.35%). Colonial mentality has invaded the stock market! Maybe what's adding to the bear tone is that ZTE controversy. Now they're going to try to unseat JDV. Tsk Tsk, anyway enough of that politics.

The good thing about the market is that we still managed to close above 3,400. And even better, we recovered from an earlier point loss of -35 or so points.

I recently discovered this tactic called RSI Divergence. It worked for me on two stocks - BPC and APX, so far. I tested it out on APX today, without considering the high gold price nor looking at their fundamentals (or lack thereof). I got out of BPC last week and I just focused on other stocks (for BPC I also used the same tactic), and I can't remember the cost and selling price of that. So I'll discuss APX instead.

APX was a day trade (today). I got in at 5.50, then sold at 5.90. Since this was hypothesis testing, I only bought a minimal amount of shares. Please look at chart below. Notice, the stock is minimally traded in terms of volume, but the divergence still worked in my favor. So maybe it's luck today, or good entry point? In any case, please look at RSI divergence vs. price chart.

I'll still keep on trying this if it works on other stocks. For today, I'm quite happy with the hypothesis testing :-)

Hindsight 20/20, Technical Analysis 1/1

Well on hindsight, my timing today was right, given the very high gold prices. The RSI Divergence then served as a good justification to go in. Take note, I'm talking now in
hindsight. So in future RSI Divergences, you have to make sure you time your entries well. I'm glad I have this program I use, called Technistock. When you see a lot of buying intraday, that's probably a good day for you to enter the market.

Have a great weekend guys!

What is Bandwagon Trading?

2007-09-19T23:47:00.001-07:00

When it comes to names, creative names, not name calling, I can say that (at least from what I would like to think of myself) I've got talent.

I joined this great group, called Absolute Traders. For the longest time, I was saying, where can I learn Technical Analysis? So maybe, by shouting out to the great beyond, my pleas for help were heard. And through the confluence of fortuitous events (how redundant can I get), I went to this seminar by ****** ******* Brokerage. They had a segment for Absolute Traders. Thus, I learned about them, and now, months later, I'm a member!

They've taught many a great lesson. But you know, lessons are good, application is better. If life is called the school of hard knocks, August was my most expensive tuition. Ouch! So anyway, enough of that, let's talk about being a trader, and being a bandwagontrader.

In Absolute Traders, they have this forum where people can contribute. Well, I being the creative wannabe, came up with a short list of nicknames. I had to think of something. It couldn't be Mr. Bearbull, since it's already being used. It couldn't be PhilippineStockMarketInvestor since it would be too long.

So I thought, when you're a trader, you must follow the trend. So I thought of some names related to that, and here were the samples

Trendsetter
Trendtrading
Mr. Trend
Trendmaster
Trendfollower

These are all copyrighted. So don't use it you piece of unoriginal something! Hehe. I know I know, imitation is the greatest form of flattery. But intimation, that is the best form of praise. So if you plan to use any of the above, please, mention me and this blog of mine would ya??

So anyway, I thought, there's this term called bandwagon mentality. Where anybody and everybody, for whatever reason they may have, just follow a certain form of idea or belief. In trading, you CAN'T afford to be counter trend. It's hard to be a contrarian sometimes. Can you imagine?

GEO went from below Php 1.00 and swelled to a high of Php 3.00. If you were the contrarian during that bull run, hmm, maybe you'd be holding on to JOH by now. Hahaha.

So in short, when you trade daily, and you see people buying up a stock like there's no tomorrow. You join in the fun. Hop onto that bandwagon. You'll likely be riding that all the way to the bank.

Ciao!

The Anticlimax / Bad Sex

2007-09-18T20:38:00.000-07:00

Well well well.

After the DOW went up by more than 300 points, the PSEi went up by a measly 73 points. During the first hours of trading, we were up almost 90 points. Then we pared down gains to fall back to 52 points, then closed higher at +73. (Market closed at 3,362.98). 3,400 is still the resistance at this point.

There may also be some fundamental risks like -

1. Threat of a US Recession (that's why the big cut)
2. Threat of high oil prices
3. Impeachment?

So much for my excitement. Hmf!

I was thinking maybe there's that political noise again.

Ano ba yan!? 2010 is still 3 years down the road, and some senators are already posturing.
I don't intend to follow the ZTE Controversy. I won't even dignify it by putting a link to it. Each government administration will always have that major dubious deal. Maybe this is it for the incumbent. Following it will just make me crazy.

I don't follow political controversies here. I'd rather watch CNBC and Bloomberg, maybe even Fox News. My personal favorite is CNBC. Bloomberg is just boring. Fox News is respectable tabloid.

If you want to master the art of stock trading, you have to control your emotions, study the charts, and more importantly, screen your senses from fundamental news, especially political ones.

And why bad sex? I was supposed to write something about local Congress. I saw an SMS before saying that a group of monkey is called a congress. Apparently, it's not. It's called a tribe. But, this is interesting, look at the other meaning of congress. I'll leave you to your own imagination and interpretation. I remember this movie of Bruce Willis'. He told Matthew Perry, "Do not engage in sexual congress with my daughter".

For now, the bandwagontrader is depressed again. Boohoo.

RATE CUT!!!!!!!!! WOOOOHOOOO!!!!!!

2007-09-18T11:35:00.000-07:00

NUFF SAID!!!!!

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST. TOMORROW WILL BE A BIG DAY ALRIGHT. BUY ANYTHING IF NOT EVERYTHING!!!

Wait, it's 2:39 In the morning, SEVEN hours from now, we'll have a major rally. Yipee yayo!

He is this year's Santa.

Avenue Q's Most Important Lesson

2007-09-18T08:14:00.000-07:00

*Spoiler Warning*

Towards the tail end of the musical, Trekkie Monster (my favorite puppet there, his picture displayed below), is able to whip out a lot of money. He got his money from trading "volatile markets", alluding to the stock market. (For Trekkie Monster, the only stable market is... porn!)

Trekkie Monster. Looking out for porn.

The musical was a romp! And the words "volatile market" could not have come at a better time. The DOW and the PSEi both don't know where it's headed. It's up to this guy (I call him Santa)

NO. Not the guy on the right.

Tonight (Tomorrow Manila Time). I hope they cut that damn interest rate. It's a selfish thought I know, I know. But is it bad if I need to make money to feed my 10 starving kids? Haha.

Tomorrow will be a big day, whether they cut the rates (yehey!) or not (boohoo!).

For more details on Avenue Q click here.
A trend is like a bandwagon. As a bandwagontrader, we follow the trend, Once it stops, out we hop.

The Ghostly Month

2007-09-16T09:17:00.000-07:00

The lunar month of July was the ghost month for Chinese worldwide. In our Gregorian calendar, it was the month of August. Personally, I don’t know why there should still be two calendars. Doesn’t it just create confusion?

******

Imaginary Conversation:

Bandwagontrader: What day is today?

Someone: It depends. Are you talking about the lunar calendar or the regular calendar?

Bandwagontrader: Does it mean shortened work weeks?

******

Well, in any case, supposedly, trading in the stock market hits a low in the Ghost Month. And if you’re someone who’s active in the market, you’d know that August lived up to that supposed belief.

What’s the Ghost Month? If I’m not mistaken, this is the time of the year, when souls are released from the gates of hell. (Now doesn’t this sound like a good start for a story or what). Try reading this for more info. I didn’t :-D

They aren’t out to steal your profits, these ghosts. But the way the market behaved last month, you’d be like Johnny Blaze. Turning from:

(Although I don’t know which one looks worst)

It was hella bad – with emphasis on the four letter word – HELL. The gates of hell were indeed opened.

Let’s watch out on September 18. Maybe if the FED cuts their rates, the market will cut us some slack.

*Bandwagontrader jumping out*

Pictures are from here.

Pendong May Kalbo!

2007-08-25T08:11:00.000-07:00

Mang Berto gave me this look and I think he mouthed, "Anong.."

Before he could utter the words, I butted in.

"Ibig ko pong sabihin, fixed po kasi ang price. Kung bibili kayo, pwede kayo sa side ng buyer or kung di kayo makapag hintay, bilhin niyo na yung price na binibigay ng seller. Ganito kasi ya.."

Suddenly, there was a flash of light and a huge thunder and clapping sound. BOOM! CLAP! CLAP!

Mang Berto was coughing like crazy and I was scratching my eyes. It was all a blur. As if my hurting eyes weren't enough, my nose reeled from the stench of the smoke!

"I come from yonder,
Be in awe and wonder!
For tips I will give
If you choose to believe,
Wager with the Bandwagontrader!"

Me: "Who are you?"

Mang Berto: "Hoy kalbo, ang baho mo, saan ka nanggaling?"

Philip and Ines were nowhere to be seen. They must have ran for help, or hmm, maybe they just ran away? I thought.

Bald person from yonder: I am the Bandwagontrader. I am the collective voice in people who do nothing but follow trends. Buy or sell, in or out, long or short.

Mang Berto: "..."

Bald person from yonder: Fear not Bert! I am the Bandwagontrader. I have heard your calling and wailing. What shall I buy, what shall I buy?

Mang Berto: "Tinatanong ko lang dito sa suki ko kung A or B ng Meralco ang bibilhin ko."

Bandwagontrader: You there!

Me: Me?

Bandwagontrader: Yes you!

I looked at him through teary eyes. His face was queer, or actually, if that's what I could call a face, because he only had a mouth. And he was bald. He had this top executive overalls, snazzy really. It's unsettling though to look at a blank face.

Me: Why? (I didn't know if I should look at him as if he had eyes, or just stare at his mouth)

Bandwagontrader: I believe we have a lot to talk about.

Me: The market's down. What's there to talk about?

Bandwagontrader: It's down because everybody sold like crazy.

Mang Berto: Hoy, anong pinagsasabi niyong down?

Bandwagontrader: The Market. THE MARKET.

Mang Berto: O tapos? Gusto ko lang malaman kung A or B ang bilhin ko, at kung ilan bilhin ko.

Bandwagontrader: <...>

* Disclaimers, et al *
I'll be updating this bland bland blog soon. Expect exciting things in the coming weeks! There aren't any stock picks yet, so in that area, there's really nothing to be excited about. I'd still recommend for you to be in cash for now. Cash is king. I'm reformatting everything in the hopes of reaching a wider reader base. Stock market aficionados, newbies to the market, welcome to the World Of Bandwagontrader!

Some Hairy Issues

2007-08-14T20:46:00.000-07:00

(I'd like to highlight stocks but with the current market, I'd rather have a black highlighter to blot out everything haha. So I'm resorting to casual writing. Please read entry on "Welcome to Stuck Hair.." for the prologue.)

Me: Opo. Nasa stock exchange ang Meralco. Meron nga A and B shares ang Meralco eh.

MB: Ah ganon ba, parang multiple choice pala.

Me: Uhm, di naman po. Yung A para sa Pinoy, ang B para sa foreigners.

MB: Aba, pwede palang bumili ang dayuhan??? Bakit natin pinapayagan yan? Kaya siguro umaakyat ang kuryente natin! Boycott! Pero teka, di ba sabi mo sa akin dati, pag bumili akong stocks, ibig sabihin may-ari na rin ako ng kumpanyang binili ko?

Me: (Sometimes I wish I hadn't started the topic of stock market with him. But if I didn't, I'll probably fall asleep while he wreaks havoc on my hair) Ah opo. Pero...

Before I could finish my statement, Mang Berto interjects.

MB: Eh diba pag amo ka, di mo na kailangang magbayad? Bili na lang akong isang share ng Meralco. Pwede rin ba ako sa B? Magkano ba ang isa?"

Philip: Sa A na lang po kayo, nationalistic pride di ba.

Ines nods her head.

Mang Berto stops for a while and thinks. He holds the scissors precariously near my ears. His eyes brighten up.

MB: Tama ka! Tapos dahil amo na ako, pwede kong sabihin na di na ako magbabayad ng kuryente ko! Di na ako pwedeng kulitin nung taga Meralco na yan.

Me: Hinahabol kayo ng Meralco?

MB: Di naman kami nagkaka-abutan kaya ok lang haha. Di ko kasi binayaran yung bill ko nung isang buwan. Buti naman at di pa ako napuputulan.

Ines gives him a stern look.

MB: Wag na nga nating pag-usapan yan. Hayaan mo silang magputol, makikikabit na lang ako diyan sa kapitbahay. Teka, asan na ba tayo... (my name), magkano ba ang isang share ng Meralco? Yung A ha, ayoko ng B.

Me: Depende po kasi yan kung kelan kayo bumili. Nagbabago kasi ang presyo.

MB: Ano? Bakit nagbabago ang presyo? Pwede ba yon?

Me: Kasi po araw araw may buyer at may seller. (I was at a loss of how to explain it to him). Pag maraming bumibili, tumataas ang presyo. Pag maraming nagbebenta, bumababa ang presyo.

MB: Nay ko po, pwede bang tumawad diyan?

Me: Err..

MB: Sabi mo kasi market, eh di ba palengke, wet market. Eh di parang palengke lang ang stock market. Pwede kang tumawad dun diba?

Me: Uhmm.. wala po kasing market master ang stock market (I interjected with a bit of sarcasm).

(To be continued)

Welcome to Stuck Hair! Your Hair is our Business

2007-08-13T04:27:00.001-07:00

Robert and Michael has taken a leave of absence from the market, or so I heard. After talking about their story about the Geologist (which I published here), they may have practiced geology themselves and buried themselves six feet under. If not, they're out looking for nickel or copper deposits somewhere in Zambales. If I were them, they can just ask their dentists. Ay teka, mercury pala yon. Oops.

So anyway, let's listen to this story I overheard at my neighborhood barbershop called Stuck Hair. It was a cool breezy Sunday. Pano, yung barbershop has no door, open air. Sabi ng amo sa akin, mahal kasi ng Meralco eh! They only have one barber, his name is Mang Berto. Siya rin yung amo ng Stuck Hair.

Minsan natanong ko si Mang Berto, bakit hindi po kayo mag hanap ng isa pang barbero para naman makadagdag kayo sa kikitain niyo.

He answered me with three powerful words. "Anong paki mo?". I gave up on being friends with him. Sabi nga ng professor ko dati sa kolehiyo -

"There are people you don't pick a fight with, the waiter, the cook, and your barber."

Ever since I've had hair on my scalp he's been my barber. Sabagay, siya nga lang naman ang barbero don, he has a monopoly of the male hair in our neighborhood. Every one has deep respect for Mang Berto, although our hair style has not yet progressed from the 70s. Uso pa daw yon, well according to the book of Mang Berto. Para sa kanya, ang uso is yung straight na hiwa ng buhok just near the eye. Mukha kaming mga national hero.

But often, pag nagpapagupit ako, pinaguusapan namin ang stock market, yun kasi hilig namin. Ako mahilig magkwento, siya mahilig magtanong.

Eh nung Sunday, nagkataoon may pumasok na mag jowa - si Philip at si Ines. Pamangkin pala ni Mang Berto si Philip. Sumali na rin sila sa usapan namin.

MB: _____ (my name is kept anonymous for safety reasons), di ba ang Meralco nasa stock exchange?

(Abangan ang susunod na kabanata)

Market is red, go back to bed!

2007-08-02T22:40:00.000-07:00

I just want to break from the commentary I'm writing about the local stock market. And just share my thoughts on what I believe is now the Philippine Stuck Exchange.

On the first rally in the U.S. Dow last Wednesday night, I had high hopes that our market would follow suit. However, our rally yesterday was a fake rally. People began selling into the rally. I watched as the Phisix went from +40 to close about -60. I thought, people just want to panic, a bandwagon of panic sellers so to speak. They must have seen the index dip below 3,400 that's why it triggered the sell off.

Then, last night, the US Dow was up another 150 points, and the Philippines? Well we were up about 40 points, then drifted lower, then thankfully (!),we closed -6points (only) from the 2nd. The hardest hit was the second liners. I guess this is stage 2 of the current bear streak. It's always the blue chips that die first. So, hopefully, we've bottomed out near term.

If the US Markets are up tonight, we might see a healthy bounce come Monday, but that's assuming the panic sellers have finished unloading their positions. When you invest in the stock market as a trader, you would have had days of successive heart attacks given the way the market has been moving. But I just want to be a contrarian in the bear cycle. And the word cycle, is probably the best word to describe my position. I'm still holding on to some of the stocks I've been holding for some time.

If you are the investor, and you know that there is nothing fundamentally wrong in the local economy, you would be buy a select few of issues in the market now. Then invest it for the long haul, probably keep it until the year ends. This statement is by no means an endorsement, but I think that's how you weather this storm. You have to gauge yourself, are you a trader or an investor?

I still have to analyze myself, and my needs. It will always boil down to your need, is it instant profit? Or an alternative form of investment? With that objective in mind, you'll know if you should be cutting loss now, or just holding it out through this big bump on the road.

I guess my motto now is the banner title I've posted - whether you're a trader or an investor.

Are you a stockholder or a stocktrader? (Part I)

2007-08-01T04:31:00.000-07:00

Hello readers. This will be a long series of commentaries I will make on the stock market, and the merits of investing therein...

Introduction

It's interesting to note that there are still a lot of people who say that the stock market is a dangerous place to be in. It is estimated that only 1% of the Philippine population invests in the stock market.

In this day and age, I'm amazed that some people still have negative, sometimes superstitious even, thoughts about the stock market. I hate to sound like a spurned lover, but in modern times, people need to be educated about their investment options. Oftentimes, people consider business and employment as the best and sometimes, their only investment.

People really, as a habit, have the tendency to reject things they don't understand. We craft our own stereotypes and beliefs based on the little facts that we have.

I'm here as a friend to help you, and possibly guide you into investing in the stock market. I'm not an expert in the stock market, just your average next door investor. I've seen two (2) heart attack-inducing events (i.e. Shanghaied on Feb 27 and the July 27 MeltDOWn, my own names for these events) and I think that I need to take a rest from the market and just share with people my thoughts about investing in the stock market.

When you think about it, is the stock market really a dangerous place to be in?

Consider the following:

1. You can buy and sell your goods (i.e. stocks) in the comforts of your home.

If you were to do that in the wet market, you'll likely be the victim of a hold up, accidental fire, or an irate market vendor. I tend to think that the last one is the worst catastrophe that could happen to you. True, the statistics here are exaggerated, but no one can deny that the home is still our most secure place.

2. Your shop doesn't have to be open every working day of the year, i.e. you don't have to trade everyday.

3. You do not have to keep an inventory of goods. And if you do, they appreciate over time and they do not expire.

In fact, I can go on and on and you'll realize that the stock market isn't a place that's just for the wealthy and privileged. The average Juan Dela Cruz can participate, and even make money from it.

So how do people go about investing in the stock market? Do you have to be a 'market wizard' to pick the best stocks in the local stock market? I don't believe nor think so.

The reason is simple, our local stock market is a very very small market compared to our Asian neighbors. Because of this I think that the size of our market is both a curse and a blessing. Moreover, of the listed companies in the local stock market, I can tell you that you can count by the fingers and toes the number of fundamentally sound companies. And it is in this act of choosing what companies or stocks to buy that separates the stockholder from the stocktrader.

The Misnomer of the Filipino Investor
(at this point, these are just commentaries, any help on statistical information would be appreciated)

Based on observation, the Filipino investor (I cringe at using the word) is only one of 3 types -

The Guaranteed Investor
The Greedy Investor
The Good Investor

Let's discuss more of these three types:

The Guaranteed Investor

The Good
* Wants a guaranteed yield
* Wants the principal to be protected
* Wants the ability to withdraw his money on any banking day
* Won't be tricked into investing in too good to be true investment scams

The Bad
* Doesn't take into account inflation
* Will likely to complain that he's not rich
* Money is tied up in savings, time deposits, and owned business interests

The Greedy Investor

The Good
* Will definitely beat inflation and the returns of all legitimate investment alternatives
* Have a very basic understanding that higher risks entail higher returns

The Bad
* Will likely lose 100% of his capital
* Will be in denial once media publishes a story about the 'investment', and realizing he's been
scammed

The Good Investor

The Good
* Evaluates his investment alternatives
* Seeks help when needed
* Has probably started investing in mutual funds and exploring other possibilities

The Bad
* Wealth will be created at a slower pace
* Might get impatient because the person can't feel the gains
* Has to cash in to realize his gains

I'll discuss more of the three types of investors in my next blog entry. Until then, please stay tuned!

I,PObot

2007-07-23T08:51:00.000-07:00

I was reading on some news when I spotted this one from the online inquirer website:

Anchor Land to launch IPO on July 27.

iRemit plans IPO last qtr of 2007.

This is in addition to the list of IPOs/Secondary Offers/Etc mentioned by Mr. Bearbull
(http://business.inquirer.net/money/columns/view_article.php?article_id=75711)

• Aboitiz Power - July

• Cebu Pacific Air - July

• Philippine National Bank - July

• Vista Land - 3rd quarter

• RFM Corp. - 3rd quarter

• GMA Network - 3rd quarter

• San Miguel Beer - 2nd half

• Rockwell Land - 2nd half

Shares in companies being sold by the government:

• PNOC-EDC - July

• San Miguel Corp. - 2nd half

• Manila Electric Co. - 2nd half

Now I'm no expert in fundamentals, but a finance guy mentioned that when there's a lot of IPOs, it's when the market valuation is at a very high premium. When that happens, it usually signals a correction coming soon. Based on chart analysis of the PSEi, it does point to a correction soon. When fundamentals and technicals say the same thing, be wary!

There's talk that our year-end PHISIX target has been upgraded to 4,000 from 3,800. But did people take into account the IPOs? Like other things in life, too much of something causes people to become disinterested. Not only that, when there is the power of choice, it means not all IPOs will be successful, as can be seen with Aboitiz Power. Some people say it's because of the price. I think it's because of the proximity of Aboitiz Power's IPO to GMA. Wouldn't you choose GMA over AP? Then there's Vista Land and PNB, also timed very closely to the GMA IPO. I hope these two will fare better than AP.

There are so many market dynamics to dissect, but I think the supply glut of IPO is also one reason why our PHISIX hasn't been making any new highs recently. It's treading onwards on a sideways movement (now this is better than a major correction). Money is either still tied up with AP, or is being held to buy some major IPO's like GMA.

The market might drift a bit higher once GMA lists as most people will have liquidated their holdings by flipping it on the listing date. And I do hope that happens.

Then there's the timing of the IPOs. Most experienced traders say that during the ghost month, it's a lean month for stock trading. As the ghost month approaches and we have a multitude of IPOs, will that make this year's lean month better vs. last year? Abangan!

The good thing in all of this is that there will now be a wider choice of stocks to choose from. I just hope that the increase in number of investors also go up so that liquidity is increased and spread over more people than over the same number of traders.

Good luck to all the IPOs!

How I Trade

2007-07-21T23:08:00.000-07:00

This has been a bad week for me. I lost dineros on IS and PCP. Ironically, I day traded the two this Friday to recover some of the losses I cut on the two hehe. I want to share with readers how I trade.

I trade using a program installed by Technistock. It's a good, albeit expensive, program that I've been using for some time. It has many features that I find useful for a trader -

Ticker
Time and Sales
Volume Review
Intra Day Charts
Technical Analysis / Charts
Who's buying and selling

These are the options I usually use. I think they offer 7-day trials so you can call them up. By using Technistock, you can trade in the comforts of your home and still feel as if you're on the trading floor or at the investor's lounge of your broker.

The good thing about it is that it's fast compared to the same features offered by an online account. I think the program is almost similar to what a broker typically uses. Whether you are an investor or trader, this program will certainly be of help to you. However, the benefits are more pronounced if you are a trader, and more so if you are a day trader.

I still trade through a broker although I have an online account. Recently, the online account wasn't working. So I'm happy to have two avenues for trading.

I'm more of a trader than an investor although I must admit I usually have two positions. I have both a buy and hold position and a trading position on some stocks. It really depends on your style. Some people don't want to tie up their money so they only have a trading position. This is particularly true and advisable during bear markets.

I've been participating in the local stock market for the past three years, although I've become more active only this year. I didn't want the bull run, er, to run away from me like it did last year, when the growth was phenomenal and I was still in the corporate world.

I buy stocks based on charts, although at times, with the help of Technistock I just go in for a tasty dose of tsupita. :-) With Technistock, you see how fast and bullish people are on an issue because there's heavy buying. Moreover, you know which brokers are buying. This is the stock I go into. So it's wise to always be in the market. I personally believe that everyday is an opportunity to make money whether the market is up or down. Just don't be greedy.

As you can see, I'm really sold on Technistock. Best investment I've made to date. :-)

I'm still fine tuning my overall stock market strategy, and plan to finish up reading on Market Wizards soon.

Happy trading next week folks! And I hope I have more time to update my blog hehehe.

My Ode to Basura Stocks

2007-07-18T01:04:00.000-07:00

Since the market has been boring as of late, I thought of a song that I can relate to basura stocks. This song is sung by Fool's Garden, and I think once it was also sung by Sting. The title is Lemon Tree. I am changing it to Lemon Company :-D

Halata bang wala na akong magawa???

Lemon Company

Im sitting here in the boring room
It's just another boring trading marathon
I'm wasting my time
I got nothing to do
I'm hanging around
I'm waiting for you
But nothing ever happens and I wonder (I hear in the background, because PSE is running
after speculators)

I'm driving around in my car
I'm driving too fast
I'm driving too far
I'd like to change my point of view
I feel so lonely
I'm waiting for you
But nothing ever happens and I wonder

I wonder how
I wonder why
Yesterday you told me 'bout the rumor buy
And all that I can see is just a lemon company
I'm turning my head up and down
I'm turning turning turning turning turning around
And all that I can see is just another lemon company

I'm sitting here
I miss the power
I'd like to go out taking a shower
But there's a heavy cloud inside my head
I feel so tired
Put myself into bed
Well, nothing ever happens and I wonder (Bakit nga ba??)

Isolation is not good for me
Isolation I don't want to see my lemon company

I'm steppin' around in the desert of joy
Baby anyhow I'll get another toy
And everything will happen and you wonder

I wonder how
I wonder why
Yesterday you told me 'bout the rumor buy
And all that I can see is just a lemon company
I'm turning my head up and down
I'm turning turning turning turning turning around
And all that I can see is just another lemon company
And I wonder, wonder

I wonder how
I wonder why
Yesterday you told me 'bout the rumor buy
And all that I can see, and all that I can see, and all that I can see
Is just a lemon company

Stuck

2007-07-09T07:51:00.000-07:00

Every morning I wake up at 9:00
Looking at my Tehnistock screen
I feel so fine...

When it hits 9:30
My net conks out on me
I feel so shitty...

What's with PLDT?
I call their help desk
They are a pity...

They say there's a network problem
I say it has been that since Thursday!
What's wrong with them?!

Their stock price is 2,675
But because they outsource everything
Service takes a dive!

So what can I do but scream over at 171
They have nothing to say
I wish them no goodbyes...only that they be gone!

Good thing the market today was a bore. Hope tomorrow's a better day. Sigh.

Hard to trade when technology bogs down. I'm so dependent on tech these days. Grrr!!!!

* Circa July 9, 2007, 10:56 PM

Photo-finish Losing: The 3R's to pull you through

2007-07-06T10:25:00.000-07:00

There are 52 weeks in a year. At its maximum, there are 5 trading days in each week. If we compute that, we have about 260 days of trading, give or take. Given a margin of error of about 10%, we narrow the trading days to about 234 days in a year.

When you live your stock market investing life as a trader, there are about 234 days of profit making, or worse, loss making opportunities. It would be great if we could make a profit EVERY trading day. But alas, we are humans -- to err is human, to forgive oneself, divinely important.

During the times that we are on a winning streak, we get blinded from reality.

We feel over-confident, as if we're the bull of the bulls. "Everything will go up", we tell ourselves.

We become riskier traders. "On to the next basura stock!", we shout haughtily.

We let our greed and pride take over. "How can I have made a mistake? I was supposed to make a ceiling price profit today!"

And then soon enough, reality checks in like an impatient tourist at a hotel.

Your three day winning streak snaps and the gains you had, lost to Mr. Losses.

Sounds familiar?

I've been in that same situation before. Oftentimes, due to greed.

If the need for speed is for cars, it's the need for greed in the stock market.

Money doesn't grow on trees, but it grows (and disappears) in the stock market. And when that happens, it's so easy to forget that most things are temporal - profits, winning streaks, and most important - losing streaks.

Alfred Pennyworth told Bruce Wayne in the movie "Batman Begins" - "Why do we fall, sir? So that we might better learn to pick ourselves up. "

You can look at losing in so many ways, but the best thing to look at is this - it's a learning, and very humbling experience. And in my experience as a trader, I've learned that it's not easy to recover your losses, and more importantly, recovering yourself.

Imagine yourself as a stock gaining selling momentum, you just don't know how low you're going to get. And you know funny and corny as it may sound, you'll find your support eventually. In the company of friends, and most especially fellow traders. But that's not enough. They're not with you always.

When you're left alone, and starting to feel unsure about yourself, you begin to realize that your emotions have already started to shake your once formidable confidence. Fear and uncertainty creeps in. You start to doubt yourself - what to buy, reading the charts right, nerve wracking decision making.

When that happens, I would advise you to do my 3 R's to start gaining confidence, and momentum for yourself -

Retreat

Mr. Danny Go, one of our technical analysis instructors from Absolute Traders, said it best. "When you're on a losing streak, stop whatever it is you're doing!"

Sometimes the obvious things aren't so obvious. When we're on a losing streak, it's best to stop the bleeding by stopping the trading.

It pays to retreat from the market. Give time to analyze your recent trading mistakes. No one knows you better than yourself.

Take a breather. It could span from a few days to weeks, maybe even months!

A successful trader in the US (name to follow) had to stop trading when he realized the emotional burden of his divorce settlement was hurting his trading decision.

Let your pride, and greed, take a back seat. In the long run, you'll fare better.

Recharge

To do that, you have to sanitize yourself.

Stay away from reading, seeing or hearing any news about the market.

There's no better way to do that than to go on a vacation. Do the things that you have forgotten to do because you've invested too much time in the stock market.

When you've feel rested, and know that you've regained your form, you can do the next step.

Re-enter

Now, when you re-enter the market, you carry with you a fresh perspective. Your mind becomes sharper, your eyes become keen to area patterns and indicators. Your gut feel kicks into full gear. A rush of trading adrenalin pumps into your veins. And before you know it, you'll be having your win streak again.

So remember, the next time you fall into that losing streak, hit the brakes. You can't charge through a brick wall without figuring out how.

Good luck traders!

Tira Banks

2007-06-29T05:37:00.000-07:00

Halftime ***phrrrt***

Folks, today let's revisit the banking sector at the half (of 2007). The number of banking stocks are one more than a baker's dozen. There have been spectacular share growth for four banks, while most were par for the sector.

Let's view the share price change of all the banking issues listed in the local exchange. All prices are close prices of reflected dates.

Jan 2 June 29 Growth/Decline
Banking 121.67 174.72 +43%
ASIA 7.40 12.00 +62%
BDO 46.00 69.50 +51%
BPI 63.50 68.50 + 8%
CHIB 680.00 920.00 +35%
CHTR 20.00 (1/12) 38.00 (6/14) + 90%
CSB 19.00 20.00 + 5%
EIB 0.48 0.55 +15%
MBT 51.50 71.50 + 39%
PBC 55.00 51.00 (6/27) - 7%
PNB 44.00 60.50 + 38%
PSB 48.00 66.50 + 39%
RCB 21.30 (1/3) 35.50 + 66%
SECB 65.50 84.00 +28%
UBP 48.46 (1/3) 62.00 +28%

* Source of juicy data is Technistock.

There may be other computations for the growth, particularly of the index, but I'm unaware of them. I only care about the price since I'm no fundy. So here goes...

Banking index grew by +43%.

The superstars are (clap your hands!) ASIA, BDO, CHTR, RCB

The veterans are (show your respect!) CHIB, MBT, PNB, PSB, SECB, UBP

The bench warmers are (boo boo boo!) BPI, CSB, EIB

On the injured list (what happened??) PBC

The major disappointment here is BPI. The price is just 68.50, just a paltry +8% from the start of the year. You may wish to visit the chart of this stock, maybe a cup and handle or a double bottom starting from February? Laggard play for this one. There might be bright prospects in the second half for this old timer. According to Biz News Asia, BPI is ranked third in terms of assets, after BDO-EPCI and Metrobank.

I'm also disappointed with BDO. The merger with EPCI did not generate a higher price for this issue. The price may have already 'priced in' the merger. I'd prefer MBT over this one. Long term bull trend still intact though for BDO. Perhaps this stock needs a bigger catalyst to catapult its price higher.

RCB. Now this is one interesting stock. I interpret the chart as an ascending triangle with an exit price of about Php 44 or 45. The chart is displayed below. (I'm obviously very bullish on RCB)

PNB: cup and handle?

SECB could be a surprise mover in the 2nd half of the year like MBT, long term bull trend intact, however on the verge of a mini - consolidation.

My personal choices are:
RCB for share price growth
MBT for sector play, long term bull trend intact!
BPI or SECB - keep a close watch

The Verdict:
Banking Stock!
ASIA Stuck for now
BDO Suck
BPI Stuck for now
CHIB Not much traded volume, pass
MBT Stock!
RCB Stock!
PNB Stuck
PSB Not much traded volume, pass
SECB Stuck
UBP Stuck
PBC Suck
CSB wow you're gutsy to even consider trading this
CHTR are you desperate for basura stocks?

Definition: Stock - Stock up!
Stuck - Watch closely and wait for clearer signals
Suck - Disappointing, pass up the stock for now

Correction ATLASt?

2007-06-27T01:43:00.000-07:00

Atlas Mining had a phenomenal run since March. From the single digit price levels, it soared to as high as Php 21.oo in May of the same year. It hasn't made a major correction, until now. I'm clapping my hands for those who bought near Php 9.00 and sold near Php 20.00.

After May 21, prices started to drift lower, although it was still above the 65 day moving average. Now that may have had some people fooled. In fact, on hindsight, there was actually a head and shoulders formation, although not as voluptuous as we want. (encircled in red). But now, the H&S has accentuated to give rise to a clearer area pattern - a descending triangle! But folks, T.A. shouldn't be about hindsight, dapat foresight.

The worse part? The long term bull trend was also broken today when it hit a low of 16.75 today. The price is going to kiss the 65 day moving average soon. So for those who still have this, time to cut loss unless you want to be an investor. (encircled in blue)

Stay away folks! The correction will be steep. If the Php 16.50 price is broken tomorrow, we could see it drop to a low of Php 15.00, maybe even Php 14.00! (Judging from the height of the triangle).

Trend Indicator: MACD, goodbye Atlas for now. We'll see each other again when you start rebounding.

My interpretation: SUCK!

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

2007-06-17T04:40:00.000-07:00

I'm still finetuning some drafts. For now, please read my creation, The Geologist.

It's also posted on my other blog.

Enjoy! :D

The Geologist: "I Made Money"

2007-06-17T04:37:00.000-07:00

Everyday it's the same routine, Robert thinks. It's already 1:oo in the morning, but he's still up, reading up on news and looking up some charts in front of his 15" monitor.Robert pauses and stretches his arms.

"Maybe I should do this 30 minutes before the action starts", he muses and smiles. But he counters back at himself. "No this is me, and this has been my life so far". He recalled the day's events.

Earlier in the day, one of his friends had just come from the Mining Conference. Michael, one of the privileged few to have attended it, came to meet Robert. They were having a cup of coffee down at the lobby of the Tektite Building.

"I've got some hot tips for you Robert my friend", Michael says with a smile."Well you always have them.", Robert answers back, seemingly uninterested.

"Come on, don't be so bitter. You're always the first to know. Just always the last to act on it."

"Yeah well. I tend to be on the safe side".

Michael, takes a sip of his coffee, and measures up his friend. "Robert, you won't make money if you don't do anything. I thought you went to that seminar on technical analysis?"

Robert laughs. "Yeah, actually I've been applying it already. I've been reading the charts for quite some time."

Michael gives him a quizzical look as if to say, what the hell are you doing then?

"I'll start buying tomorrow. I think I've understood what the charts are telling me."

"Well that's definitely an improvement. I've been making money even before the conference started. With all that demand for metals from China and India, I think we're in for a one hell of a ride."

Michael takes a long sip from his coffee, enjoying his earlier triumphs over the market.

"Yes. I agree, but somehow, I can't find myself buying into tips. I'd sooner believe in the charts than the tips", Robert says disapprovingly. "But you know, even without your tips, if I bought based from what I saw on the charts, I'd also be making money."

They continue on with their chat. Sharing their views, contesting tips and talking about technical analysis. After an hour or so, they parted ways.

Robert checks his watch, it's already 10 minutes past 1. He studies some more charts and hits the sack.

******

He wakes up at 9:00 in the morning.

"Shoot, just in time", Robert curses under his breath.

9:05AM

Good thing there's a computer.

He opens it up and after a few minutes he's logged on to his online account. He readies his phone and mobile phone just in case the online account bogs down midday. Computer and tech savvy, he's happy just being multi-tech.

9:20AM

"The postings are good."He muses.

9:31AM

Like a shot from a magnum, he posts his order and it gets done as fast as a speeding bullet.

10:30AM

The market is still up and Robert feels a second rush of adrenalin. "I'm going to make money today, and tomorrow, and hopefully everyday!"

Thus starts Robert's first foray into stock market trading. But the market isn't friendly. It's not an up up and away market.

There will be down days, even months.Robert knows it and he'll have to be careful.

For now, he'll hold on to his picks. He's got something planned.

* All names and similar name sakes, events are fictional. Any similarity of such name, namesakes or events are only intended to make the story interesting.

The Stock * Stuck * Suck * Report

The February 13 Report

The February 8 Report

The February 6 Report

Bloody February

Been Busy Report

The January 29 Report

The January 28 Report

January 24 Report

Incomplete Update for January 23

Some Thoughts on The Market

January 18 Report

The January 16 Report

The January 14 Report

The January 9 Report (Or lack of it)

No January 8 Report

The January 7 Report

The January 4 Report

The January 3 Report

Happy New Year

December 27

No Post

No Internet. No Report.

Updated Blogroll

The December 14 Report

The December 13 Report

Recommendation, No December 12 Report

The December 11 Report

The December 7 Report

The December 6 Report

The December 5, 2007 Report

The December 3, 2007

No November 29 Report

November 27 Report

IS BACK!!!!!!! (November 26 Report)

November 21 Report

November 16 Report

NEWSFLASH! BSP CUTS RATES BY 25 BPS

November 15 Report

November 14 Report

No November 13 Report

November 12 Report

November 9 Report (on November 10)

No November 8 Report (Well at least this 2:50AM of November 9)

November 8, 2007 Report

November 7, 2007 Report

The November 6, 2007 Report

The November 5, 2007 Report

What to Expect for November 5-9

Continuous Updating

A Hard Habit to Break

The Weekend Factored!

The Mechanical Trader: Prologue

Bloody Monday

@(*#&$(*#&$(*&

RSI: Really Something Indicator :-)

The Weekend Factor

Project Sino: Failure!

Project SINO

SINO? SINO? SINO NGA?

When Are We Ever Gonna Get Noticed??

My Recent Discovery: RSI Divergence

What is Bandwagon Trading?

The Anticlimax / Bad Sex

RATE CUT!!!!!!!!! WOOOOHOOOO!!!!!!

Avenue Q's Most Important Lesson

The Ghostly Month

Pendong May Kalbo!

Some Hairy Issues

Welcome to Stuck Hair! Your Hair is our Business

Market is red, go back to bed!

Are you a stockholder or a stocktrader? (Part I)

I,PObot

How I Trade

My Ode to Basura Stocks

Stuck

Photo-finish Losing: The 3R's to pull you through

Tira Banks

Correction ATLASt?

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

@(#&$(#&$(*&