Tira Banks

Halftime ***phrrrt***

Folks, today let's revisit the banking sector at the half (of 2007). The number of banking stocks are one more than a baker's dozen. There have been spectacular share growth for four banks, while most were par for the sector.

Let's view the share price change of all the banking issues listed in the local exchange. All prices are close prices of reflected dates.

Jan 2 June 29 Growth/Decline
Banking 121.67 174.72 +43%
ASIA 7.40 12.00 +62%
BDO 46.00 69.50 +51%
BPI 63.50 68.50 + 8%
CHIB 680.00 920.00 +35%
CHTR 20.00 (1/12) 38.00 (6/14) + 90%
CSB 19.00 20.00 + 5%
EIB 0.48 0.55 +15%
MBT 51.50 71.50 + 39%
PBC 55.00 51.00 (6/27) - 7%
PNB 44.00 60.50 + 38%
PSB 48.00 66.50 + 39%
RCB 21.30 (1/3) 35.50 + 66%
SECB 65.50 84.00 +28%
UBP 48.46 (1/3) 62.00 +28%

* Source of juicy data is Technistock.

There may be other computations for the growth, particularly of the index, but I'm unaware of them. I only care about the price since I'm no fundy. So here goes...

Banking index grew by +43%.

The superstars are (clap your hands!) ASIA, BDO, CHTR, RCB

The veterans are (show your respect!) CHIB, MBT, PNB, PSB, SECB, UBP

The bench warmers are (boo boo boo!) BPI, CSB, EIB

On the injured list (what happened??) PBC

The major disappointment here is BPI. The price is just 68.50, just a paltry +8% from the start of the year. You may wish to visit the chart of this stock, maybe a cup and handle or a double bottom starting from February? Laggard play for this one. There might be bright prospects in the second half for this old timer. According to Biz News Asia, BPI is ranked third in terms of assets, after BDO-EPCI and Metrobank.

I'm also disappointed with BDO. The merger with EPCI did not generate a higher price for this issue. The price may have already 'priced in' the merger. I'd prefer MBT over this one. Long term bull trend still intact though for BDO. Perhaps this stock needs a bigger catalyst to catapult its price higher.

RCB. Now this is one interesting stock. I interpret the chart as an ascending triangle with an exit price of about Php 44 or 45. The chart is displayed below. (I'm obviously very bullish on RCB)

PNB: cup and handle?

SECB could be a surprise mover in the 2nd half of the year like MBT, long term bull trend intact, however on the verge of a mini - consolidation.

My personal choices are:
RCB for share price growth
MBT for sector play, long term bull trend intact!
BPI or SECB - keep a close watch

The Verdict:
Banking Stock!
ASIA Stuck for now
BDO Suck
BPI Stuck for now
CHIB Not much traded volume, pass
MBT Stock!
RCB Stock!
PNB Stuck
PSB Not much traded volume, pass
SECB Stuck
UBP Stuck
PBC Suck
CSB wow you're gutsy to even consider trading this
CHTR are you desperate for basura stocks?

Definition: Stock - Stock up!
Stuck - Watch closely and wait for clearer signals
Suck - Disappointing, pass up the stock for now

Correction ATLASt?

Atlas Mining had a phenomenal run since March. From the single digit price levels, it soared to as high as Php 21.oo in May of the same year. It hasn't made a major correction, until now. I'm clapping my hands for those who bought near Php 9.00 and sold near Php 20.00.

After May 21, prices started to drift lower, although it was still above the 65 day moving average. Now that may have had some people fooled. In fact, on hindsight, there was actually a head and shoulders formation, although not as voluptuous as we want. (encircled in red). But now, the H&S has accentuated to give rise to a clearer area pattern - a descending triangle! But folks, T.A. shouldn't be about hindsight, dapat foresight.

The worse part? The long term bull trend was also broken today when it hit a low of 16.75 today. The price is going to kiss the 65 day moving average soon. So for those who still have this, time to cut loss unless you want to be an investor. (encircled in blue)

Stay away folks! The correction will be steep. If the Php 16.50 price is broken tomorrow, we could see it drop to a low of Php 15.00, maybe even Php 14.00! (Judging from the height of the triangle).

Trend Indicator: MACD, goodbye Atlas for now. We'll see each other again when you start rebounding.

My interpretation: SUCK!

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

I'm still finetuning some drafts. For now, please read my creation, The Geologist.

It's also posted on my other blog.

Enjoy! :D

The Geologist: "I Made Money"

Everyday it's the same routine, Robert thinks. It's already 1:oo in the morning, but he's still up, reading up on news and looking up some charts in front of his 15" monitor.Robert pauses and stretches his arms.

"Maybe I should do this 30 minutes before the action starts", he muses and smiles. But he counters back at himself. "No this is me, and this has been my life so far". He recalled the day's events.

Earlier in the day, one of his friends had just come from the Mining Conference. Michael, one of the privileged few to have attended it, came to meet Robert. They were having a cup of coffee down at the lobby of the Tektite Building.

"I've got some hot tips for you Robert my friend", Michael says with a smile."Well you always have them.", Robert answers back, seemingly uninterested.

"Come on, don't be so bitter. You're always the first to know. Just always the last to act on it."

"Yeah well. I tend to be on the safe side".

Michael, takes a sip of his coffee, and measures up his friend. "Robert, you won't make money if you don't do anything. I thought you went to that seminar on technical analysis?"

Robert laughs. "Yeah, actually I've been applying it already. I've been reading the charts for quite some time."

Michael gives him a quizzical look as if to say, what the hell are you doing then?

"I'll start buying tomorrow. I think I've understood what the charts are telling me."

"Well that's definitely an improvement. I've been making money even before the conference started. With all that demand for metals from China and India, I think we're in for a one hell of a ride."

Michael takes a long sip from his coffee, enjoying his earlier triumphs over the market.

"Yes. I agree, but somehow, I can't find myself buying into tips. I'd sooner believe in the charts than the tips", Robert says disapprovingly. "But you know, even without your tips, if I bought based from what I saw on the charts, I'd also be making money."

They continue on with their chat. Sharing their views, contesting tips and talking about technical analysis. After an hour or so, they parted ways.

Robert checks his watch, it's already 10 minutes past 1. He studies some more charts and hits the sack.

******

He wakes up at 9:00 in the morning.

"Shoot, just in time", Robert curses under his breath.

9:05AM

Good thing there's a computer.

He opens it up and after a few minutes he's logged on to his online account. He readies his phone and mobile phone just in case the online account bogs down midday. Computer and tech savvy, he's happy just being multi-tech.

9:20AM

"The postings are good."He muses.

9:31AM

Like a shot from a magnum, he posts his order and it gets done as fast as a speeding bullet.

10:30AM

The market is still up and Robert feels a second rush of adrenalin. "I'm going to make money today, and tomorrow, and hopefully everyday!"

Thus starts Robert's first foray into stock market trading. But the market isn't friendly. It's not an up up and away market.

There will be down days, even months.Robert knows it and he'll have to be careful.

For now, he'll hold on to his picks. He's got something planned.

* All names and similar name sakes, events are fictional. Any similarity of such name, namesakes or events are only intended to make the story interesting.