Saturday, August 25, 2007

Pendong May Kalbo!

Mang Berto gave me this look and I think he mouthed, "Anong.."

Before he could utter the words, I butted in.

"Ibig ko pong sabihin, fixed po kasi ang price. Kung bibili kayo, pwede kayo sa side ng buyer or kung di kayo makapag hintay, bilhin niyo na yung price na binibigay ng seller. Ganito kasi ya.."

Suddenly, there was a flash of light and a huge thunder and clapping sound. BOOM! CLAP! CLAP!

Mang Berto was coughing like crazy and I was scratching my eyes. It was all a blur. As if my hurting eyes weren't enough, my nose reeled from the stench of the smoke!

"I come from yonder,
Be in awe and wonder!
For tips I will give
If you choose to believe,
Wager with the Bandwagontrader!"

Me: "Who are you?"

Mang Berto: "Hoy kalbo, ang baho mo, saan ka nanggaling?"

Philip and Ines were nowhere to be seen. They must have ran for help, or hmm, maybe they just ran away? I thought.

Bald person from yonder: I am the Bandwagontrader. I am the collective voice in people who do nothing but follow trends. Buy or sell, in or out, long or short.

Mang Berto: "..."

Bald person from yonder: Fear not Bert! I am the Bandwagontrader. I have heard your calling and wailing. What shall I buy, what shall I buy?

Mang Berto: "Tinatanong ko lang dito sa suki ko kung A or B ng Meralco ang bibilhin ko."

Bandwagontrader: You there!

Me: Me?

Bandwagontrader: Yes you!

I looked at him through teary eyes. His face was queer, or actually, if that's what I could call a face, because he only had a mouth. And he was bald. He had this top executive overalls, snazzy really. It's unsettling though to look at a blank face.

Me: Why? (I didn't know if I should look at him as if he had eyes, or just stare at his mouth)

Bandwagontrader: I believe we have a lot to talk about.

Me: The market's down. What's there to talk about?

Bandwagontrader: It's down because everybody sold like crazy.

Mang Berto: Hoy, anong pinagsasabi niyong down?

Bandwagontrader: The Market. THE MARKET.

Mang Berto: O tapos? Gusto ko lang malaman kung A or B ang bilhin ko, at kung ilan bilhin ko.

Bandwagontrader: <...>

* Disclaimers, et al *
I'll be updating this bland bland blog soon. Expect exciting things in the coming weeks! There aren't any stock picks yet, so in that area, there's really nothing to be excited about. I'd still recommend for you to be in cash for now. Cash is king. I'm reformatting everything in the hopes of reaching a wider reader base. Stock market aficionados, newbies to the market, welcome to the World Of Bandwagontrader!

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Some Hairy Issues

(I'd like to highlight stocks but with the current market, I'd rather have a black highlighter to blot out everything haha. So I'm resorting to casual writing. Please read entry on "Welcome to Stuck Hair.." for the prologue.)

Me: Opo. Nasa stock exchange ang Meralco. Meron nga A and B shares ang Meralco eh.

MB: Ah ganon ba, parang multiple choice pala.

Me: Uhm, di naman po. Yung A para sa Pinoy, ang B para sa foreigners.

MB: Aba, pwede palang bumili ang dayuhan??? Bakit natin pinapayagan yan? Kaya siguro umaakyat ang kuryente natin! Boycott! Pero teka, di ba sabi mo sa akin dati, pag bumili akong stocks, ibig sabihin may-ari na rin ako ng kumpanyang binili ko?

Me: (Sometimes I wish I hadn't started the topic of stock market with him. But if I didn't, I'll probably fall asleep while he wreaks havoc on my hair) Ah opo. Pero...

Before I could finish my statement, Mang Berto interjects.

MB: Eh diba pag amo ka, di mo na kailangang magbayad? Bili na lang akong isang share ng Meralco. Pwede rin ba ako sa B? Magkano ba ang isa?"

Philip: Sa A na lang po kayo, nationalistic pride di ba.

Ines nods her head.

Mang Berto stops for a while and thinks. He holds the scissors precariously near my ears. His eyes brighten up.

MB: Tama ka! Tapos dahil amo na ako, pwede kong sabihin na di na ako magbabayad ng kuryente ko! Di na ako pwedeng kulitin nung taga Meralco na yan.

Me: Hinahabol kayo ng Meralco?

MB: Di naman kami nagkaka-abutan kaya ok lang haha. Di ko kasi binayaran yung bill ko nung isang buwan. Buti naman at di pa ako napuputulan.

Ines gives him a stern look.

MB: Wag na nga nating pag-usapan yan. Hayaan mo silang magputol, makikikabit na lang ako diyan sa kapitbahay. Teka, asan na ba tayo... (my name), magkano ba ang isang share ng Meralco? Yung A ha, ayoko ng B.

Me: Depende po kasi yan kung kelan kayo bumili. Nagbabago kasi ang presyo.

MB: Ano? Bakit nagbabago ang presyo? Pwede ba yon?

Me: Kasi po araw araw may buyer at may seller. (I was at a loss of how to explain it to him). Pag maraming bumibili, tumataas ang presyo. Pag maraming nagbebenta, bumababa ang presyo.

MB: Nay ko po, pwede bang tumawad diyan?

Me: Err..

MB: Sabi mo kasi market, eh di ba palengke, wet market. Eh di parang palengke lang ang stock market. Pwede kang tumawad dun diba?

Me: Uhmm.. wala po kasing market master ang stock market (I interjected with a bit of sarcasm).

(To be continued)

Monday, August 13, 2007

Welcome to Stuck Hair! Your Hair is our Business

Robert and Michael has taken a leave of absence from the market, or so I heard. After talking about their story about the Geologist (which I published here), they may have practiced geology themselves and buried themselves six feet under. If not, they're out looking for nickel or copper deposits somewhere in Zambales. If I were them, they can just ask their dentists. Ay teka, mercury pala yon. Oops.

So anyway, let's listen to this story I overheard at my neighborhood barbershop called Stuck Hair. It was a cool breezy Sunday. Pano, yung barbershop has no door, open air. Sabi ng amo sa akin, mahal kasi ng Meralco eh! They only have one barber, his name is Mang Berto. Siya rin yung amo ng Stuck Hair.

Minsan natanong ko si Mang Berto, bakit hindi po kayo mag hanap ng isa pang barbero para naman makadagdag kayo sa kikitain niyo.

He answered me with three powerful words. "Anong paki mo?". I gave up on being friends with him. Sabi nga ng professor ko dati sa kolehiyo -

"There are people you don't pick a fight with, the waiter, the cook, and your barber."

Ever since I've had hair on my scalp he's been my barber. Sabagay, siya nga lang naman ang barbero don, he has a monopoly of the male hair in our neighborhood. Every one has deep respect for Mang Berto, although our hair style has not yet progressed from the 70s. Uso pa daw yon, well according to the book of Mang Berto. Para sa kanya, ang uso is yung straight na hiwa ng buhok just near the eye. Mukha kaming mga national hero.

But often, pag nagpapagupit ako, pinaguusapan namin ang stock market, yun kasi hilig namin. Ako mahilig magkwento, siya mahilig magtanong.

Eh nung Sunday, nagkataoon may pumasok na mag jowa - si Philip at si Ines. Pamangkin pala ni Mang Berto si Philip. Sumali na rin sila sa usapan namin.

MB: _____ (my name is kept anonymous for safety reasons), di ba ang Meralco nasa stock exchange?

(Abangan ang susunod na kabanata)

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Market is red, go back to bed!

I just want to break from the commentary I'm writing about the local stock market. And just share my thoughts on what I believe is now the Philippine Stuck Exchange.

On the first rally in the U.S. Dow last Wednesday night, I had high hopes that our market would follow suit. However, our rally yesterday was a fake rally. People began selling into the rally. I watched as the Phisix went from +40 to close about -60. I thought, people just want to panic, a bandwagon of panic sellers so to speak. They must have seen the index dip below 3,400 that's why it triggered the sell off.

Then, last night, the US Dow was up another 150 points, and the Philippines? Well we were up about 40 points, then drifted lower, then thankfully (!),we closed -6points (only) from the 2nd. The hardest hit was the second liners. I guess this is stage 2 of the current bear streak. It's always the blue chips that die first. So, hopefully, we've bottomed out near term.

If the US Markets are up tonight, we might see a healthy bounce come Monday, but that's assuming the panic sellers have finished unloading their positions. When you invest in the stock market as a trader, you would have had days of successive heart attacks given the way the market has been moving. But I just want to be a contrarian in the bear cycle. And the word cycle, is probably the best word to describe my position. I'm still holding on to some of the stocks I've been holding for some time.

If you are the investor, and you know that there is nothing fundamentally wrong in the local economy, you would be buy a select few of issues in the market now. Then invest it for the long haul, probably keep it until the year ends. This statement is by no means an endorsement, but I think that's how you weather this storm. You have to gauge yourself, are you a trader or an investor?

I still have to analyze myself, and my needs. It will always boil down to your need, is it instant profit? Or an alternative form of investment? With that objective in mind, you'll know if you should be cutting loss now, or just holding it out through this big bump on the road.

I guess my motto now is the banner title I've posted - whether you're a trader or an investor.

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Are you a stockholder or a stocktrader? (Part I)

Hello readers. This will be a long series of commentaries I will make on the stock market, and the merits of investing therein...

Introduction

It's interesting to note that there are still a lot of people who say that the stock market is a dangerous place to be in. It is estimated that only 1% of the Philippine population invests in the stock market.

In this day and age, I'm amazed that some people still have negative, sometimes superstitious even, thoughts about the stock market. I hate to sound like a spurned lover, but in modern times, people need to be educated about their investment options. Oftentimes, people consider business and employment as the best and sometimes, their only investment.

People really, as a habit, have the tendency to reject things they don't understand. We craft our own stereotypes and beliefs based on the little facts that we have.

I'm here as a friend to help you, and possibly guide you into investing in the stock market. I'm not an expert in the stock market, just your average next door investor. I've seen two (2) heart attack-inducing events (i.e. Shanghaied on Feb 27 and the July 27 MeltDOWn, my own names for these events) and I think that I need to take a rest from the market and just share with people my thoughts about investing in the stock market.

When you think about it, is the stock market really a dangerous place to be in?

Consider the following:

1. You can buy and sell your goods (i.e. stocks) in the comforts of your home.

If you were to do that in the wet market, you'll likely be the victim of a hold up, accidental fire, or an irate market vendor. I tend to think that the last one is the worst catastrophe that could happen to you. True, the statistics here are exaggerated, but no one can deny that the home is still our most secure place.

2. Your shop doesn't have to be open every working day of the year, i.e. you don't have to trade everyday.

3. You do not have to keep an inventory of goods. And if you do, they appreciate over time and they do not expire.

In fact, I can go on and on and you'll realize that the stock market isn't a place that's just for the wealthy and privileged. The average Juan Dela Cruz can participate, and even make money from it.

So how do people go about investing in the stock market? Do you have to be a 'market wizard' to pick the best stocks in the local stock market? I don't believe nor think so.

The reason is simple, our local stock market is a very very small market compared to our Asian neighbors. Because of this I think that the size of our market is both a curse and a blessing. Moreover, of the listed companies in the local stock market, I can tell you that you can count by the fingers and toes the number of fundamentally sound companies. And it is in this act of choosing what companies or stocks to buy that separates the stockholder from the stocktrader.

The Misnomer of the Filipino Investor
(at this point, these are just commentaries, any help on statistical information would be appreciated)

Based on observation, the Filipino investor (I cringe at using the word) is only one of 3 types -

The Guaranteed Investor
The Greedy Investor
The Good Investor

Let's discuss more of these three types:

The Guaranteed Investor

The Good
* Wants a guaranteed yield
* Wants the principal to be protected
* Wants the ability to withdraw his money on any banking day
* Won't be tricked into investing in too good to be true investment scams

The Bad
* Doesn't take into account inflation
* Will likely to complain that he's not rich
* Money is tied up in savings, time deposits, and owned business interests

The Greedy Investor

The Good
* Will definitely beat inflation and the returns of all legitimate investment alternatives
* Have a very basic understanding that higher risks entail higher returns

The Bad
* Will likely lose 100% of his capital
* Will be in denial once media publishes a story about the 'investment', and realizing he's been
scammed

The Good Investor

The Good
* Evaluates his investment alternatives
* Seeks help when needed
* Has probably started investing in mutual funds and exploring other possibilities

The Bad
* Wealth will be created at a slower pace
* Might get impatient because the person can't feel the gains
* Has to cash in to realize his gains

I'll discuss more of the three types of investors in my next blog entry. Until then, please stay tuned!