No November 29 Report

Folks we have been victimized by my now infamous Weekend Factor. Something always gives on a weekend, especially long ones. Just when you thought that we'd be going up because of economic news and the DOW recording triple digit gains, a senator thought it wise to brandish guns inside a court house and accuse the current administration of being morally bankrupt.

If you brandish a gun inside a court house, what makes you better?

I was watching with glee at the stock market, we were up by a hundred points, 2% up from yesterday. Then I was shocked as everything went red and everybody was selling like crazy. What the **** happened?

I called up my broker and realized that Senator Trillianes, who hasn't smarted from his previous mutiny, is doing exactly what he did years ago.

We went from 100 points to just 16 points up early 11AM. It's remarkable that some brave traders sought the contrarian route and boosted the PHISIX up by 41 points to close at 3,578. Nonetheless, there's no point making a report today dahil sira na ang charts natin mga parekoy. A kneejerk reaction of selling today ultimately makes your charts look ugly.

I can only hope that the matter is settled peacefully over there at the Peninsula and the DOW goes up tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise, look for another sea of red come Monday.

How do you promote tourism when militant men in uniform use hotels as their staging point? I still call for all politicians to have mandatory basura stocks that will be locked up for 5 years. That should teach them a lesson about being POLICY MAKERS. Not party poopers.

November 27 Report

Market Commentary

Today's still a commentary in my books because the PSEi was down by only -13 points (-0.37%) at 3,524. This, a day after a triple digit loss of the DOW yet again. I knew it, looking at the performance of the DOW near the open is useless. I said last night that the DOW was still up by 38 points as of my press time.

I'm updating this blog 12:25AM already. I'm not updating my blog at this time by choice. It's just that I've been quite busy as of late, what with 4 days gone last week without Internet. As of now the DOW is up triple digits, by 162 points. All three indexes - DOW, Nasdaq and S&P are up a percentage point.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +13M
CLSA -47M
MACQ +23M
JPM +49M
UBS +3M (KJ!)
ABN -5M
DBP +217M (Due to a huge block sale of FGEN at 9.73) Probably the government deal?

So from the looks of it, we have another day of net foreign buying here folks! Their volume though, is anything but exciting.

STOCK

Our pick yesterday on APX? Jackpot! LC? Same, I had some scare but I was able to day trade it today.

Gold retreated today, and so did oil, so tomorrow is an opportunity to buy gold related stocks. Gold and oil are long term bullish if I am to believe the news.

EDC is also a no-brainer. At a price of almost 9 apiece, you're buying the company at a bargain of 6.9 or 7. Do you think that the Lopezes would sell the shares lower than their bid price? I think not! In any case, this is a stock for long term players, not for trader junkies (like me).

OV. I know OV is one of those one fluc stocks, but if the Galoc project pans out next year? I don't think you'll be able to get the shares of OV at its current price. Again, this is a similar stock for long term players.

FGEN. Another long term play. Yeah, expensive deal, but this is EDC. One of the premier oil companies in the local market. Did I hear oil? Oh, and did I tell you that oil is one of those commodities that are going to run out of supply before our generation dies? Ever heard of the law of supply and demand? Oil is your long term bet (and so are base metals and gold).

Surprises - PA. From Suck to Surprise. Let's see if this is another stock.

Still strong - GEO.

From henceforth, I will subdivide STOCK into trader stock and investor stock. If you are a trader, you don't want a stock that goes up 5% per WEEK. You want the one that does that in a DAY.

You have to be quick to the draw and not be greedy. Take the profits and think that, in all the hell that is the market, you are still making money.

Put in your radar: SMC/B. Start of the return to recovery?

STUCK

So far, I have to see if there is a stock that's stuck in a range.

SUCK

Still PLDT and its brand of unreliable service. Even SMART is no better. Ever gone to their business centers? I'll give props to GLOBE for offering better service. The problem with GLOBE is that I think they're more expensive. (Somebody correct me if I'm wrong).

IS BACK!!!!!!! (November 26 Report)

First, A Word From the Administrator:

From Thursday (22nd) to Monday (26th) morning, I was sidelined with NO INTERNET.

Aside from being unable to update my blog(s), I was unable to do any trading. I made incorrect moves because I WAS BLIND. I relied heavily on what my broker would tell me over the phone. Since I'm not the only client, it's difficult to ask him everything I want to monitor.

PLDT's "sorry for the inconvenience" is a pathetic excuse (and ruse) to calm nerves. This is not the first time they had this "inconvenience". I was "inconvenienced" this July, with a WEEK's time lost to no internet access. So people, if you want to apply for an internet connection, try some other service provider. Make PLDT your last resort. They'd rather put their money in advertisements to add their subscriber base without putting equal amounts of money into infrastructure development.

Market Commentary

I decided to upgrade it to "Commentary" given today's (and even last Friday's) performance. It's not the best, but I'm taking any gain that comes my way.

The market closed up +42 points (+1.23%) to crawl back to 3,537. Gainers beat losers 80 to 23, while 50 counters remained unchanged (Splat included).

The Mining and Oil Index was up +284 points, with Philex (PX) and Lepanto (LC A/B) leading the way. Lepanto A was up a whopping 8%, the B shares were up 7.8%. PX was up 2.06%.

TEL shed -0.1661% to 3,005 with mostly foreign selling. (That's what happens when you don't provide good service!). In any case, TEL is still a big weight in the index so I don't want this to crash hehe.

I'm updating this at 11:44PM, the DOW is up 38 points (+0.28%), while the Nasdaq and S&P are similarly up. It is critical that all three indexes are up. There was a time that the DOW and the Nasdaq were up, but the S&P wasn't. I hope this is a good omen as the volatility as of late has been wild INTRA day.

Another bright spot is what the foreigners were doing today:

Foreign Houses:
DEU +64M
CLSA + 3M
MACQ +13M
JPM +54M
UBS - 146M (KJ!)
ABN +131M
DBP + 22M

So from the looks of it, we have a net foreign buying here folks! I'm not sure if my list is entirely accurate or complete as there may be some foreign houses that I forgot to include in the list.

STOCK

With the recent highs of gold, LC, PX and APX.

Other than that, I don't have other stocks to recommend since this is my first day (actually night) with internet. Therefore, I only have my eyes on the market NOW.

STUCK

For updating on tomorrow's report.

SUCK

PLDT!

PLDT's DSL!

PA. Sucked big time I realized. You'd expect that the stock would at least go up ON THE DAY of the special stockholder's meeting. It didn't.

November 21 Report

Market Critique

I have been busy the past two days, hence my absence from posting. I am migrating (no not to another country, although it's starting to be a really good idea), from market commentary to market critique so I can have a place to bash the market, just for fun. There's really nothing good from the market so far.

Let's first critique my prediction about the market. As of Wednesday's close, it's a flop, like Splash Corp. I forgot to read the US chart, which is definitely becoming the barometer of the PSEi. I used to think that the stock market is the barometer of the economy. Given that the Philippines is a (insert adjective here) country, (our politicians have no shame, I doubt even this would change their ways).

I still go by my earlier suggestion that all politicians made to hold shares of stocks, and lock these up for 5 years. They'll know what the @#$ they're doing to this country they're supposed to be running.

The increase of the DOW (51 points, +0.4%) last night failed to spur the local market. We were down 30 points, -0.85%, tracking major Asian averages. Decliners paved the way for uber-bearishness 80 to 24 gainers. You want to know who the top gainers were? Here they are:

LIHC (who?) +49.47%
CSB (huh?) +42.86%
MED (ano?) +42.50%

Our index is now hanging precariously above 3,500. I just checked the chart, looks like we're headed downhill in the short term. So much for November huh? Well we have about less than 2 weeks left until December. December has traditionally been a boom month for stocks. Looks like 2007's won't be the same. There's a study out there supposedly comparing 2007 to 1997 (even to 1987), when, in all these years, the market started to turn bearish. Superstition? Coincidence? We'll know by January.

Foreigners:
UBS +191M
MACQ - 94M
DEU - 99M
CLSA +166M
ABN + 46M
JPM +158M

Hey, looks like we're net foreign buying! Yehey! Thank you guys for averaging down! Now we're definitely sinking in quicksand.

There's really nothing to write about for Stock or Stuck. The market is highly volatile right now, it is difficult to recommend something without having a gun pointed at you after. The name of the game now is SPEED. Get in, get out. Don't be greedy or you'll end up dead.

STOCK

Buy boatloads of Extraderm, SkinWhite.

STUCK

Put these stocks in your house and never use it.

SUCK

Hmmm. The market today. There's a downside when you're viewing the market everyday.
You tend to forget to look at the bigger picture. So my tip is to take a look at the charts, and for novices (like me), have a little chat with an experienced broker, and ask for direction, by direction I mean talking to him or her to try to make sense of this market.

November 16 Report

Market Commentary

I try to keep the market commentary short and sweet because you can read the recap in broadsheets or on their online editions anyway. What I seek to do with the market commentary is to highlight what caught my eye, and potentially, what we can make a profit out of on the next trading day.

I hate writing on Fridays because you have the weekend factor. Whatever recommendation I would say would be useless if the DOW crashes tonight and if something happens again over the weekend.

At this point, the DOW futures are flat and point to 13,160. The DOW will always be the barometer by which the local market will want to track its performance with.

The BSP, as expected, cut its overnight rates by 25bps. However, that failed to entice the market. This is probably a sell on news. The PSEi closed weaker today at 3,598, down by -73 points or -1.99%. The market started drifting lower at the 1030AM mark.

You can blame BPI, TEL, AC, MEG and MBT for the decline of the PSE. Just take a look at these large caps:

BPI 62.00 -6.77%
TEL 3,015.00 -1.15%
AC 580.00 -2.52%
MEG 3.95 -4.82%
MBT 53.50 -4.46%

Blue chips have become blue cheaps as of late (except TEL). But don't ask me to buy just yet. I planned to buy MBT today, but when I saw the heavy selling of them foreigners, and the chart looking butt ugly, I postponed my purchase.

Our market just tracked the big cap Asian indexes namely Japan and Hong Kong - they were also down by -1.81% and -3.87% respectively. Our market is so damn small that if the foreigners bail out of the market, the local traders, and 'investors' would probably follow suit.

The top gainer today was DFNN. I braved today's bad market and made a day trade with DFNN. Happiness :-D

Don't ask me for rumors as I am not a rumor mill. I don't have any contacts with anyone, I heavily rely on my Technistock subscription.

Aside from learning TA from Absolute Traders, my subscription to Technistock has been one of my best investments this year. It's my investment in the stock market that isn't working at this point, haha.

DFNN might have some follow through on Monday so I'll keep an eye on this one.

Last week I mentioned that we might have a correction, well it happened. Is this a sign of further correction? Or are we entering a sideways movement from henceforth? As I've said, I'd rather a consolidation period than a further correction. It makes people jittery and bearish.

Let's revisit the PSE chart as of today's close. When I look at the RSI, we might make a technical rebound next week. Of course, this could just be my wishful thinking, as we will still depend on the almighty DOW come Monday. As long as there are corporate earnings reports coming out, and less negative news, fewer political brouhahas, and Jinggoy shuts up, I think next week could be a better week than this week's.



Based on this weekly chart, out market is lying precariously above the 30day moving average. The good thing is that, even with our week-long seesaw, we still managed to be above that 30 day. The reason why I'm saying there could be a bounce is that based on RSI, the index bounces back from those points (touching the blue line I drew). With the exception of August-Sept.

STOCK

I was going to do that for MBT. Good thing I hesitated. Foreign houses like Deutsche, JPM, CLSA and Daiwa sold it like there was no tomorrow. Even MEG went back to 3.95, although there wasn't much foreign selling.

Try to look at the following next week:

APO
DFNN
PA is still strong despite the solid postings of more than a hundred millions shares on the sell side on 0.225, 0.23 and 0.2235
LC should still be a buy. Those who sold were merely taking the profits and making the pullback of gold price below 800 as an excuse. Remember, LC was a breakout Wednesday. There is no resistance (based from what I saw on the chart).

FOLKS DEUTSCHE IS STILL A NET BUYER TODAY. +112M
ABN-AMRO is also a net buyer. +168M

STUCK

Tagal Bagal Grabeng 'Intay (Ticker TBGI). With the market correcting again, it has succumbed, finally, to 2.80 (-3.45%). Volume is still minimal though.

SUCK

(Still) ATLAS MINING!!!!!! However, with APO leading the way, there could be upside with this Suck.

Foreign selling of other foreign brokerage houses.

Splash Corp. Traders usually do a FLIP on IPOs on the listing date. What Splash did was a FLOP.

Definitely not sucky - the weekend. Enjoy the weekend folks. Remember always look at the big picture. As long as the fundamental background of a good economy sticks, our stock market should weather this. It's just more difficult to make money for a trader during consolidation phases.

NEWSFLASH! BSP CUTS RATES BY 25 BPS

You heard the news first right here from a non-news blog (I think).

Go to this site for further exciting news. We will still be dependent on the US Market tonight, as well as have that weekend factor, however, this should cushion any negative performance on the DOW tonight, if at all.

Good luck tomorrow!

November 15 Report

Market Commentary

Our market managed to close above 3650 to settle at 3,672.22, down 9 points (-0.26%). The downside was expected as the DOW closed down by 70 points or 13,214 (-0.57%). We probably didn't close down as much as the US, percentage-wise, because of a BSP rate cut decision coming out today. People are probably cautiously bullish that the Central Bank will cut rates, therefore the selling was toned down.

The BSP decision will come out today.

Another reason for the steadiness of the stock market is that the Mining Sector was up 281 points. This is largely due to LC, LCB, PX, as well at the A and B shares of Manila Mining (Ticker: MA, MAB)

Actively traded TEL (3,050 ; up +0.66%) also managed to keep the PSEi afloat. MEG, a stock I was tempted to buy (but did not due to my personal liquidity issues), closed up 4.15 (+1.22%). Foreigners were net sellers, from my estimates. What is interesting is that Deutsche has resumed its buying spree. ABN AMRO likewise was on the green side of the market.

Let's see what Deutsche is buying:

TEL
EDC
SM
ALI
MBT

Except for TEL, all other issues Deutsche bought closed down.

The highlight for today was supposed to be SPLASH (Ticker: SPH), which, instead of making a big splash in the market, closed down -5.56%, below IPO price. SPLAT's top buyers were Angping Abacus and Coyiuto. Why isn't First Metro here? Sellers were Asiasec and ABCap.

Market sentiment today may have hurt its listing. Let's see tomorrow if it recovers.

I will always indicate the DOW's performance as part of the market commentary as the US Market plays a strong factor to local sentiment on any given trading day.

Congratulations on those who were able to buy LC yesterday. I am not sure if this will continue tomorrow. As some readers may have known already, I am a strong proponent of the Weekend Factor and would not advise people to load up on a lot of stocks during Fridays.

STOCK

I am removing FGEN from my daily report. This will fly soon. If not tomorrow, that should come next week. This is not based on rumor, rather, this is based on a rising RSI. The RSI hasn't made a significant uptrend. Keep this on your radar. A break of 62 or 62.50 with very strong volume could indicate a breakout for this stock.

Also keep an eye on MEG, LC, and GEO. MEG is likely to go up soon with good earnings to support a strong buying bias. For LC, this is just a third day breakout play. If you plan to buy LC, my suggestion is let this be a day trade. It might pullback on Monday. However, I could be wrong, the value was at Php 236M. Haven't seen this much volume for this stock in a long, long time.

My other baby, PA:

Stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. Comments, if any.

PA, 0.215 / - 4.44% / Tower Goldstar (The special stockholder's meeting was pushed to November 23, or am I the last to know? In any case, look to buy this stock somewhere on the .195 to .20 range. The stock is still moving in a tight range. You might be able to make some quick profits here.

I am also including Metrobank (Ticker: MBT) into the limelight. Metrobank has been dragged down by the negative sentiments on the financial sector. It is currently trading at the 260-day average, but well below this year's moving averages of 30 and 60. This could breakout soon as this 260 day average should be a strong support. However, the downside is still the sentiment on the sector.

Also look at this second liner: APO. It was up 7.44%, but I doubt a lot of people noticed this because the buying activity was close to 12NN. Top buyers were Abacus and Citisec. Possibility for day trading tomorrow.

STUCK

Philodrill (Ticker: OV). Can anyone tell me why the ticker is OV??? I have decided to go long on this one. It's oil. A no-brainer.

Tagal Bagal Grabeng 'Intay (Ticker TBGI). With the market correcting so far, I am surprised this is still strong, albeit flat, at 2.90. Volume is minimal though I am not surprised.

SUCK

(Still) ATLAS MINING!!!!!!

Foreign selling.

Congress bombing.

Jinggoy hoping he would win in 2010. Ugh.

November 14 Report

Market Commentary

The DOW made a phenomenal comeback just like Bill Clinton and went up by 300 points. We don't know yet if this is a dead cat bounce so this isn't a reason to rejoice just yet. As I've said yesterday, this year's December is shaping up to be a whimper of a late year rally. We're not yet out of the woods yet and the bear is hiding somewhere.

The bombing last night scared me out of my wits, although I didn't lose sleep over it. I didn't watch the news, but I was told it was more of an assassination attempt against a Basilan solon. The market basically shrugged it off by performing at 2.28% upside to close at 3,681 with 82 points up.

TUNA was the most active stock (even I was surprised, looking at the table now), due to a cross by Astra Securities. I'm as clueless as you, so don't ask me for anything. Second most active was GLO. Today was full of greens you'd think you were on the golf course.

The biggest gainer was LC. Watch out for this stock, I really like the chart. It has tested the 0.46 (LC "A" shares) barrier this second time, and with very very strong volume, I think this will go places. Let's just hope that the US market recovers further, there is a BSP rate cut and gold stays at the 800 range.

STOCK

Our babies, PA and FGEN performance:

Stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. Comments, if any.

PA, 0.225 / + 9.76% / Bennett ABCapsec (Tomorrow is the special stockholder's meeting. With the performance of this stock, and a turnover of 328M shares valued at Php 72M, directions point to something substantial and positive

FGEN 61.00 / +0.83/ CLSA ATR (CLSA has turned into a net buyer after selling it by blocks last week. There was a report on the Business World that Senator Arroyo filed a resolution questioning the sale of the government stake of PNOC-EDC. I am not sure if this will have a negative effect on the stock if ever the resolution is approved or passes the Senate)

I am now including LC into the picture. Our top buyers were PEP and Asiasec. Sellers were Lucky and IGC.

STUCK

Philodrill (Ticker: OV). Can anyone tell me why the ticker is OV??? I have decided to go long on this one. It's oil. A no-brainer.

SUCK

ATLAS MINING!!!!!!

GEO

After two straight days of buying, Deutsche has finally decided to sell today. Although they sold a measly -11M worth. CLSA is still a positive buyer at +52M.

********************************************************************************

I won't attach the chart of LC anymore. The picture qualities I place here are hella bad.

No November 13 Report

I was out doing something so I wasn't able to craft the report in early. Come 8PM++, a trader-friend of mine sends a text message and tells me that "may sumabog na bomba sa Congress".

At first I was thinking that the word bomba was an allusion to a bombshell about Arroyo, like maybe a new impeachment filing, or something to do with the bribery inquiry. Then it hit me, it was literally, a bomb. I cursed like crazy.

Whenever the market is at or near a high (based on the chart), something fundamentally wrong happens. And now, just when the US is rebounding, the Congress gets bombed.

With the bombing of Glorietta still fresh in the memories of people, I am starting to think that this year's December will result in a stock market kaput (as opposed to a kaboom). There's really nothing else to celebrate but bad news.

Sigh...... Traders, grit your teeth in the coming days. Investors? Well, I think you better start calling your brokers and find some piece of peace in this mad, mad world.

November 12 Report

Market Commentary

Oh the pain of having to make a report, especially on a down day like today. Our market corrected by -85 points (-2.30%), tracking the Asian benchmark indexes - Tokyo (-2.54%), Hong Kong (-3.88%) , Singapore (-2.46%). Hong Kong has been strongly hit these past few days. China bubble exploding? Maybe it's because they've made a new high recently, but the pullback has been stronger.

Of the top 20 on the actives list, ALI and MWC showed resilience and remained flat from the 9th. MWC has been showing strength in this troubled market. It's a good sign. However, a trader can't make money on a stock that is stuck.

Surprisingly, Deutsche was a net buyer with a value of +205M. For the other big foreign players, they were net sellers. CLSA was another net buyer at +22M worth. Let's see what were they buying?

Deutsche:
SM, TEL, AC, PX and ALI

CLSA:
MWC, EDC, MEG, FLI and FGEN

Local big time player, PEP or Philippine Equity Partners, the managers of the Philequity Fund,
bought the following:
ALI, GMAP, FGEN, MER and EDC

The biggest sectors hit were financials and mining / oil. Financials were due to the negative bias of people on the sector. Mining/Oil is due to extensive profit taking, as well as big corrections in PX, GEO and SCC.

So far, ALI has been showing resilience. I'm just scratching my head over at MEG. Its earnings was impressive (although I'm not a finance guy). The current price is really temptingly delicious to buy in. Chart-wise, well it's unwise at this point. The DOW has to make a rebound tonight.

All signs are pointing to a BSP rate cut - benign inflation as well as a tempered money supply growth. This should bode well for our local market, at least in the near term. Looks like the year end bang will just be a year end whimper for the stock market this year. Tsk tsk.

There are mixed projections as to how the PSEi will end this year, 3,500, 3,800, 4,000. If we close at 4,000, and Citisec recently said that by June 2008, the index would be 4,200, does that mean we won't have any upside by next year?


STOCK

I think it's better not to trade at this moment. If you want to buy, look for bargains in MEG, and FGEN. Don't shop around for basuras just yet.

STUCK

That's me.

SUCK

I hope after tonight, I won't have to put the DOW right here.

The Dollar! It's fallen to the Yen.

GEO. I wanted to day trade earlier (I could've made some money. As well as LC, buy at 0.40, sell at 0.41. But of course, I'm a chicken in these broadbased selling days, so I stayed on the sidelines) GEMINI fans are probably on the edge of their seats once again.

Good luck, and pray hard this time.

November 9 Report (on November 10)

I still can't log on to Technistock. Too bad. Let's go on with what I have, which is a newspaper.

Market Commentary

Our market was up by 11points yesterday to close at the level of 3,703.66. The mining and oil index spurred the advance of the Index, up a record 491 points. The financials and the property companies were inched down, for some reasons that I'm pondering over right now.

For the financials, let me make a correction, BPI has not yet reported anything (well based from my check yesterday on Technistock). Only RCBC and UBP has reported earnings. This is a fundamental scare for me. Does this mean that our local banks have exposure to sub-prime related investments (I shudder at the oxymoron of placing investments along with the words sub-prime).

For the property companies, I expect that next week, these should go up because of anticipation of a BSP rate cut. One of my top pick would be MEG, which has been beaten black and blue despite the slight increases of the index this week. ALI should also benefit given that they are the leader in the property sector.

The reason why the mining index went up by that much is mainly due to a Felipe Yap stock, Lepanto. I remember that I highlighted this stock in early August at the Absolute Traders forum, too premature I suppose. The sad news about Lepanto? Many got whipsawed around the 0.42-0.43 price (For LCA). More on this one later.

Last night I saw the DOW trying to recover its losses from a hundred point loss. At some point it was down by only 60 points. Now, I checked and was shocked at the numbers. Down over 200 points or -1.69%. Terrible indeed.

On my own, I think that as long as the global economic growth story stays intact, Asia, albeit volatile in the coming days, will stay intact and manage to go up. The problem will largely depend on the US Consumer. Most of the news has still been about the subprime meltdown.

After the FED cut the rate by 50 basis points in September, the market reacted in what we may term as over exuberance. Imagine the DOW didn't just go to 14,000 in just one month last July. It managed to do that from January to July. Then in one month 1000 points was wiped out (August), then again, in one month, it was back right up to 14,000. I shudder to look at the charts right now.

Remember, although an uptrend is more sustaining than a downtrend, it has to be a slow, predictable rise. It shouldn't just skyrocket in a short time interval. It tends to pull back down hard. I think that's what is happening to the US Market, in technical terms. The good thing? If the DOW rebounds next week, we will know for certain if the direction of the charts lead us to bullish territory or bearish pits.

STOCK

Well, I was right with the quick profit taking on DIZON MINES (Ticker DIZ). However, I was wrong with the 3rd day run-up. After hitting 12.75, it closed down 1.00 at 11.75. Look to buy on weakness if you notice that JAP is continuing its buying of said stock.

I was right with AJO too. It opened at 0.155 and went to a high of 0.16. It went to a low of 0.15 but closed at 0.155. Continue on Monday? Probably, there are some people who bought at the recent highs and they have to average down to get out. Just remember that there's that DOW overhang.

Am I saying I'm good? No. What I am doing is sharing with you what I saw in the market. When you are viewing the ticker and the market (for a person with no interest in stocks, it's just a boring screen with numbers and letters) EVERY SINGLE DAY, you tend to build a sense of gut feel, and you tend to remember what the active stocks were and how they were playing out.

Since I wasn't able to see my Technistock, I won't be able to state my usual template of
stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. Comments, if any.


PA 0.205 / -2.36 / Bad sign. They have a special stockholders' meeting next week if I'm not mistaken, and people are getting out? Makes me wonder. Let's see on Monday. It could be some people taking their profits on PA because they lost out on LC.

FGEN 61.00 / +0.83% / Breakout imminent? It's been stuck on that range but there's still buying interest. Keep an eye on this one.

STUCK

TBGI. Closed at 3.00 or flat from the 8th. Why am I highlighting this stock? Am I hyping? No. They made a disclosure this week right? That they have a private placement? Although buying interest has not picked up for this stock, whenever there's a private placement, it's a sign of something major. Watch out!

SUCK

The DOW, what else!

Oil!

The Dollar! It closed Php 42.670 to a dollar.

I have a serious problem with this. Remember, a large chunk of the Philippine economy is contributed by OFW inflows. If the peso further strengthens then we will have a problem with consumer spending this coming December.

The main reason why the local stock market picks up at the tail-end of every year is because consumer consumption is the strongest. It spurs the economy. Now if the same families that were receiving their remittances at Php50 to a dollar before suddenly lose Php 7 for every dollar sent back, that will have disastrous implications.

With this as a backdrop, I'm putting forward my contrarian foot and saying that 2008 might truly be the end of the bull run. My bold prediction is that after March, the market will either turn bearish or go into a major consolidation phase.

I am not an economist of course, that is why I don't intend to compute the numbers. For one, it's quite tedious, and second, I'm really not interested to compute. I don't like Math. I think that's why I chose Technical Analysis over Fundamental Analysis :-D

Lepanto A. I wanted to day trade this stock so I entered at 0.44. After I bought it at 0.44, the weakness started to show. It wouldn't budge 0.44. If you press F7 on Technistock you will see a chart. But it's only a good 6-8 months. My broker said that there was a resistance at 0.46. I opened my chart files, then whoala. Resistance is 0.46. That was why the stock couldn't go past 0.45 after it touched 0.46 intraday!

I had to have a strategy for my daytrade then. I told myself I would cutloss at 0.42, no matter what happened. There were moments of hesitation, and by jove, I really had a hard time deciding because at 0.42 it was still being bought up (that was around 10:30 in the morning). But eventually I stuck to my plan. I exited at a loss.

I wanted to buy back at 0.42 when I saw some strength. It did bounce back to 0.44, but eventually closed at 0.40.

Think about that, if I didn't cut my losses at 0.42, then I'd lose even more at 0.40. Not only that, I would panic even more with the DOW closing down again last night.

However, one thing I've learned is, if you want to CUT LOSS. Wait for the rebound. If I had cut loss at 0.44 then I would only lose in fees and commissions. At any rate, it could have gone the other way (i.e. what if it didn't rebound to 0.44 and actually just made a freefall to 0.40?).

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Let's look at the weekly chart of PSEi to see what will likely happen next week.

I won't attach technical indicators anymore as it will eat up the space for the price chart of PSEi. The RSI is going down. MACD seems to point to a short-term correction.




The picture quality is butt ugly and for malicious minds my diagram actually resembles a phallic symbol hehe. I didn't purposely make the diagram that way okay :-)

Anywho, next week is critical. If we fall to somwhere near 3,650 and lower, we will have a deep correction once again. Hopefully, anticipations of a BSP rate cut would push us to go sideways. At this juncture, I think I'd rather have a consolidation phase. The reason why there might be a correction, in my view, is that we are still near the top. With the RSI pointing to a bearish sign, there's chances of a correction. (Getting jitters).

Good luck to us all next week!

No November 8 Report (Well at least this 2:50AM of November 9)

I was out this afternoon on a writing assignment that I had no time to make my report.

I have a personal trading experience to share. And I will include this in the post tomorrow.

The November 8 report shall come out on November 9, and this time I'll just use the newspaper for my data. I can't connect to Technistock anymore. So for those who, for whatever nocturnal reasons, want to open the program. IT DOESN'T WORK AT THIS TIME OF DAY (or night).

The headlines of CNBC have been bearish since Monday. Does Media play a big role in dragging a market? Is the American consumer really that bearish already and belt-tightening their obese waists? I don't live there, but why do I think that, some of the news there are a bit over-exaggerated?

In any case, as of this writing, the DOW is down by 160 points or -1.21%. Bakit naman kasi DOW ang tawag nila???? DOW is so homonymous (if there's such a word hehe) to DOWN. Sana katunog ng UP, or BULL, or SKYROCKET na lang. Haaaaay. Sana wag maipit sa Lunes.
(In English: Why is the DOW called the DOW when it is so homonymous (if there's such a word *laughing sound*) to DOWN. Why not make it sound like UP, or BULL, or SKYROCKET instead? Sigh. Hopefully we don't get stuck on Monday with our remaining positions)

I will be doing some retouching of this blog and the other. I'll be busy this weekend so I'll just update some entries, and time willing, maybe do the long overdue retouching. (I have to understand some html mumbo jumbo).

Ciao.

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Thank you gwen for visiting this blog and linking this :-) I highly appreciate your comments.

I am always trying to overdo myself to make my blog more presentable and readable. This means I'm doing something right hehe.

I'll be at the next AT event! Promise :D Just had a conflict of schedule on the previous one.

November 8, 2007 Report

Market Commentary

With another sharp nosedive on the Dow last night (closed at 13,300, down by 360 points, or -2.64%), it was inevitable for the Phisix to follow suit. Today, our closed weaker at 3,692 , -96 points down and tracking the Dow's percent fall, we were down by -2.54% from the 7th.

Looking at the Actives List is like looking at a sea of blood. Everything was red, except for, surprise surprise, Dizon Mines (Ticker DIZ). I joined in the fray today, but did not day trade. My broker was right (hopefully), in that if the market is down but this one is going up, there could be further support tomorrow. Although on hindsight, I forgot tomorrow's a Friday. So I might exit my position in Dizon tomorrow.

(I have written about the weekend factor. Please view it here.)

So far this year, buying opportunities arose during exactly times like these, when everyone is selling. Remember, most of the times, when the market nosedives, some people join in the selling because of panic. It is when people panic that there is a possibility of buying into shares at good prices.

The biggest drags for the market were AC, TEL and MEG.

Keep an eye on oil prices. We are near $100 a barrel already. If it breaches 100, this will definitely mean even higher prices. Time to go back to riding the jeep. There was a good comment last night by the lovely Erin Burnett on CNBC, traditionally stocks went down when oil prices went up. This time around, stocks were going up AS oil was rising. So we wonder, what will happen to the stock market when it goes past 100?

I just wonder, will super oil laggards OV, OPM and PERC start to move already????????

STOCK

I'm putting DIZ here. Tomorrow will complete the 3-day run-up that usually happens for stocks locally. If you've been actively trading this year, there seems to be a unique pattern across all basuras. Most of their prices went up for three consecutive days, then kaput.

I'm not saying it's a buy, just keep this on your monitor and have that mindset of profit taking. This means that if you are only buying in tomorrow, be sure not to forget to get out fast.

If you have the balls for it, try looking at AJO. It might have a slight rebound tomorrow. Buy somewhere at 0.15 or 0.155. Just remember to get out fast too.

Other picks I chose for the week were the ff. These are listed as stock, closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. I've added comments if applicable.


PA 0.21 / -4.55% / Goldstar RS Lim (Still trading within a tight range. Too late to remove this from the list since tomorrow is the last day for the week. These top buyers are traders. GS's average price was 0.215, RS Lim's at 0.21. If you are going for a longer trading position, 0.205 or 0.21 could be good support prices)

FGEN 60.50 / Flat / JPMorgan Deutsche (3rd day of Foreign buying. These are BIG foreign brokerages, so they are probably seeing something we don't. Not only that, you have to realize that a large cap like FGEN, holding stable despite a bloody day like today is a BULLISH sign)

STUCK

I am displacing AT from here to SUCK.

TBGI. Despite the weaker close of the market, this basura managed to stay afloat at 3.00, although down by -1.64% from yesterday which was at 3.05)

SUCK

Oil is making record highs once again. The resistance is probably around 100. There are two scenarios, one is that it breaks it, the other is a strong pullback for oil. This will have serious implications for those holding on to mining stocks. So just be wary.

In terms of Php value
Deutsche sold -203M
CLSA sold -163M
UBS sold -195M

Even Philequity was net seller at the following:
PEP sold -163M
Wealth sold -258M

Only JPMorgan was a net buyer at +287M

For newbies, foreign buying and selling has a serious implication on the direction of the market. So this should always be on your list of things for monitoring.

Friday tomorrow. Don't forget the weekend factor.

November 7, 2007 Report

STOCK

Lucky 7 today? Maybe. I was lucky enough to day trade Dizon Mines (Ticker: DIZ) today. So am I all smiles? Not really. I feel a tinge of regret because the greed in me wished I had bought more hehe.

Wow, I just looked at the closing of the market and saw that we were actually up by +14.63 points today. 14 is a multiple of 7. Hehe. I've heard that some people actually look to Astrology as a guide to trade the markets. I have yet to meet one though.

We can thank ALI, which closed at 16 (+3.23%), and TEL at 3,045 (+0.50%) with the boost to the market. However, at one point we were actually up by 28 points (still a number divisible by 7!). I was actually disappointed, what with the US closing up with 100 points, and an expectation of a rate cut by the BSP and a tame October inflation (which could provide room for the BSP to do just that).

Mining stocks. They are still the ones to look at. Philex is slowly losing steam. Atlas still sucks. Apex Mining (Ticker: APX/B), now there's something. Apex supposedly has a lot of gold reserves. Lepanto has been stuck in a range as well. Gold is above $800 already. With the dollar falling, expect commodities like black gold (oil) and gold to go up further.

Globe declared a special dividend. I'm no expert at computing dividend yields but for smart traders, this could be a chance to ride Globe. Whenever there is an announced dividend, the stock moves up prior to its ex-date.

Let's monitor our Week's pick, details are: closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. I've added comments.

ZIP is now officially known as SLI. Well a change in name didn't make a change in its performance. I'm removing this from my radar for now. So no more details.

I am also removing OV & TBGI from my monitor for now. So with APO and AT.

PA 0.22/ Flat / F_Yap Citisec (For a relatively basura stock, it's amazing there's still activity here. Not only that it's still closing above 0.21.)
FGEN 60.50 / Flat / Citisec JPMorgan (Actually went to Php 62 apiece, before being sold down by ATR and CLSA)

I wasn't able to attend the CAF (Chart Analysis Forum) of Absolute Traders last night, but a friend of mine said these stocks were talked about as potential buys -

PA
AT
COL
IPVG
ALI
PCOR

STUCK

Still Atlas Mining. Oh dear Atlas, when thou art moving?

SUCK

My broker told me that there was news last night about mall hours being asked to close early due to our looming power crisis. I wasn't able to see the news, but from the looks of it, it could've weighed sentiments on SMPH, closing at 11.50 or down by -2.13% from the 6th. Top sellers were Deutsche, CLSA and ATR. I haven't been tracking this stock so I don't know if they have actually been selling since Monday. I looked at the chart and it seems it's made a new low today in two weeks' time.

Oil made a new high, however, most of our oil stocks PERC - OPM and OV suck big time. Even PCOR. Sometimes it's not so much as fundamental news as it is on just plain chart trading or pure trading tactic. OPM, OV and PERC are stocks that traders can 'play around' with because one fluctuation = profit already.

Based on my estimates, there is still (again) NFS (Net Foreign Selling).

Good luck tomorrow!

Call of the Bandwagontrader **Occasionally I want to comment on something**
People say that when you overtrade you actually make the broker richer. I dispute that. Maybe in the US that is the case, but in the local scene, try to look at these computations. I won't be exact with the prices, but let's take Ayala Land (Ticker: ALI) as an example. ALI is a good stock, so I won't hear criticisms like this being a volatile stock.

Let's hypothetically say that you trade millions of pesos worth. You bought 70,000 shares of ALI. I won't show you anymore how the fees were computed to provide brevity. To dispel arguments, we are talking of a single person transaction. Of course, when the volume of a broker's clients is taken into account, that would be a different story, and a different argument altogether.

Scenario A: The Buy and Hold Person.
If you bought ALI sometime April, you might have gotten it at 14. And since this person believes in "if you trade too much, you'll make your broker rich", he holds until today November the 7th (a lucky day) and sells it at 16. He'd have earned approximately in excess of Php 120,000 (net of broker fees, et al.). His broker probably earned about Php 11,000 or so. So who got rich in these scenario? Not the broker of course, so the axiom is proven here.

Scenario B: The Trader
Here's a person who was able to read his charts well. Obviously there's no hard and fast rules with regards to cutting losses or 'timing the market', but if you have a background in technical analysis, and also have the composure to cut your losses (or protect your profits, whichever way you see it), let's say the same person bought at 14 also, then seeing ALI fall from 18 to 16, he eats his pride and decides to sell, and thereby protect his profits, at 15.75 a piece. He makes a profit of about Php 105,000. His broker makes Php 10,412.50. So axiom busted once. (I purposely make the person sell lower than 16 to prove a point that Person B will still earn more money)

Next, this guy, sees ALI falling back to 14 during the August nightmare, there are people who think that stocks that have went back to their lows are bargains, whether or not he is a chartist. So let's say this guy is not a chartist, and he figures, "Hey, I have an opportunity to buy ALI again at 14." And so he does. He keeps it until today, the lucky 7th day of November, and sells it at 16. He sells it so we can make an example out of him hehe. He makes another cool Php 120,000. His broker? Just another Php 10,000 or so. So axiom is asskicked the second time around!

Now here's the kicker, who made more money? Person A or Person B?

To close. I am not a broker. Just a person with a brain in between his ears. Don't believe everything that you read. If you don't believe what I say it's alright, but all I can say is that these are based on personal experience (except the part about trading in millions ok hehe). We must understand that there will always be volatility in the stock market. Smart people will tell you that it is in volatility that you may lose, or in my opinion EARN money. Not only that, even on day trading, at a certain percentage, you actually earn more than your broker.

Ciao for now.

The November 6, 2007 Report

STOCK

The 6th of November, it's a gloomy Tuesday what with the weather. I can say the same for the local market. We were at one point up by about 16 points if I was not mistaken, and we closed almost flat. This is superb considering that we are slaves to the Dow's performance. (The Dow closed down 51 points to settle at 13,543).

However, if you track the Asian performance today, we are actually the rebel. Major indexes were up today, albeit slightly (Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore). Yesterday, we were also the rebel, the rest of Asia was bleeding while we closed up. This could change later, I can't find a solid news site at this point. I checked on Bloomberg though and most Asian marts were up. I'm writing at noontime as I'll be doing something else later.

PSEi closed at 3,773.63, down by -1.18 or -0.0313% vs yesterday. This is due to, well surprise surprise, AC. It closed at 630, down -2.33% vs yesterday. The rise in TEL, to 3,030, or +1.85% is offset the losses of AC a bit. As I've said, TEL is such a big weight that it can turn the index up (or down).

Watch out for PLDT's investor briefing today. I hope their earnings come out strong as this will be a leading indicator for the index. Globe will follow suit tomorrow.

Let's monitor our Week's pick, details are: closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 2 buyers. I've added comments

ZIP 3.00 / -7.69% / ATR SB Equity (There were probably a lot of people shaken out of here. It was strong early trading at 3.35, with buying support of 5M postings at 3.30 and 3.25, Then all of a sudden heavy selling by DAMarket and DWCapital killed a lot of traders.)
OV 0.03/Flat / Asiasec SB Equity (4 for 1 share overhang. Usually prices will drift lower. But let's see what will happen to oil prices tonight on US Trading. Long term, oil prices will still go up.)
PA 0.22/ Flat / BPI Ansaldo (The close was forced at 0.22, only one buyer at this price at the close so I prefer to look at the close as 0.215)
TBGI 3.10/ Flat / Abacus BPI (Thank you JONA for your comment. I'm not privy to the details of TBGI but right now, there's still buying although you'd expect that after a disclosure, it should be going up, not flat or down)
FGEN 60.50 / +0.83%/ Deutsche Valuequest (Block cross sale by JPMorgan at 57.00)
AT 15.75/Flat/Abacus Goldstar (Getting impatient with this)
APO 2.36/-0.84%/Goldstar Kings (follows AT)

* On a sidenote, I don't have all of the above shares. I'm still waiting for the right time to enter into some of the above.

I was able to daytrade AJO. So yay!

Try to look at DIZ. There's still support at 9.90.

STUCK

Atlas Mining. Nuff said.

SUCK

PEP. Gapped up today only to close at yesterday's closing price.
Based on my estimates, there is still NFS (Net Foreign Selling).

See you tomorrow on another exciting trading day!

The November 5, 2007 Report

STOCK

The PSEi inched up today by +15.84 points, thanks to gains in Ayala Corp, and BPI, an Ayala subsidiary. Biggest decline of index-linked issue was TEL, which closed at ,2975 still far away from its close of 3,100 (-4%) same day last month.

This is amazing, considering that Asia-wide, all other indexes declined. One reason could be that stock market participants are expecting a rate cut. (If we still go up this week, then it's a sell on news once the rate cut does come out.) Or that earnings have still been generally above expectations. Supposedly PLDT is to produce quarter results today, but I haven't seen any yet on the net. Maybe tomorrow morning.

If its (PLDT) stock is any indication, well either the profits are just par for the course or just plain old profit taking from its highs. PLDT is such a big weight in the index that when it comes down, it pulls the index with it.

Let's monitor our Week's pick, details are: closing price, +/-% vs previous day's, top 3 buyers

ZIP 3.25 / +3.17% / PCCI ATR
OV 0.03/-3.23% / Coyiuto BPI (Coyiuto has been buying a lot lately, profit taking was due
to retreat of Asian oil prices)
PA 0.22/ +2.33% / Goldstar BDO
TBGI 3.10/ -3.13% / ABN-AMRO Belson (A disclosure came out later in the day about a
private placement of 35M shares to a foreign
investor) ABANGAN ITO!
FGEN 60.00/Flat/Deutsche JPMorgan (If you were a long term investor, say 1-2 mos, this
could be a good entry price)
AT 15.75/Flat/PEP Armstrong (still within that tight range)
APO 2.38/-2.46%/Goldstar Yu (follows AT)

STUCK

Well other than some of my stock positions, there's really nothing much to say about stuck issues. hehe.

Well look at Atlas Mining. There's a perfect example of a stuck stock. The mining stocks have been going up, yet a company like Atlas Mining, which is ALREADY shipping metals (I forgot what type), is the laggard.

SUCK

Nothing sucky at this point other than the credit crisis. Some stucks haven't reached their Q2 highs like the Ocier stocks - BEL, SINO, and APC.

Look out for these two too:

PCP
PEP

They were being jockeyed up during Q2 when rumors were rife of backdoor this and backdoor that.

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There you have it, my first formal report. Hope you guys like it. As much as I can, I'll do it daily. I still have to find time to tweak this blog to look better. I really hate these 'free' templates. Then again, it's free, so I can't expect anything mind-blowing hehe.

What to Expect for November 5-9

The DOW JONES seesawed like crazy last week so I suppose this could be a good indicator of what to expect for the PSEi this upcoming week. So far, of the blue chip companies listed in the PSE, only ABS-CBN, GMA7 and Meralco have thus far released their earnings report (if my memory serves me right).

An interesting PSEi component to see is the Financials. So far only RCBC and BPI has released their earnings. Of the two RCBC posted a very wide margin of growth. It should be expected given that BPI is a monster in terms of its size vs. RCBC. BPI net income grew by 11%, as expected of a big, mature company.

The reason I'm saying Financials are interesting is that this is the component most hit by selling in the US. Ours has been no different. It will be interesting if our local banks mention anything about exposure to asset backed securities, particularly those related sub-prime credit.

Our market will likely be volatile next week. On the other hand, it could be buoyed by expectations of our local BSP doing a rate cut. Earnings will still be the main ingredient to push up stocks for the last two months of 2007. If big company earnings, particularly real estate and banks post better than outlook growth, we'll have happy days by mid-November.

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There are times when you buy on news. This is because even though the market is small, there 'market insiders' won't be aware of everything 100% of the time. Therefore, the stock has not yet been jockeyed up. Sometimes, it could be that the news reports the company as having beat estimates, or having a new acquisition, rights offer, etc. As such, I would like to add news wires soon. (Read below to find out more).

Look out for more company disclosures, especially of earnings in the coming weeks. I would like to put a chart of the PSE here but there's a problem with the program now. Apologies!

Look out for the following stocks too. These stocks are not based on charts but based on what I saw in Technistock during the last trading day last week. They're all basura stocks, naturally. And I don't mean that in a cynical way. If you are a trader, you thrive on volatile issues. And when we say volatile, 99% of the time, they're basura stocks.

ZIP- could do a PA.
Oil stocks particularly OV.
PA
TBGI (silently bought up by Abacus)
FGEN
AT-the laggard in the mining stocks boom thus far, could spring a surprise
APO * if Atlas goes up, then naturally APO should too

As you can see, these stocks that I picked are based on logic. I'm trying to find out if I can earn money by thinking logically, and understanding what other people are doing and not doing in our market.

See you all this coming week and hopefully we have a better week. Fundamentally, there is still that credit crisis overhang. We'll look to the charts for more info when my program is up and running.

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I spent @#*$(&(* 2 hours tweaking here and there, trying to improve the look of my blog all I got was "Error. Error. Error." I thought technology was supposed to help us???? What kind of help is "Error." Somebody talk to me in English please! I wanted to add news wires but it doesn't work. I thought it was just simply cut and paste. hehe. I may have knowledge about the stock market, but when it comes to html, xml, etc etc, all I know is... nothing! I hope someone'll help me out here soon. Wasted time! @#$^!

Continuous Updating

I will continually improve the look of my blog.

Thank you for dropping by.