I,PObot

I was reading on some news when I spotted this one from the online inquirer website:

Anchor Land to launch IPO on July 27.

iRemit plans IPO last qtr of 2007.

This is in addition to the list of IPOs/Secondary Offers/Etc mentioned by Mr. Bearbull
(http://business.inquirer.net/money/columns/view_article.php?article_id=75711)

• Aboitiz Power - July

• Cebu Pacific Air - July

• Philippine National Bank - July

• Vista Land - 3rd quarter

• RFM Corp. - 3rd quarter

• GMA Network - 3rd quarter

• San Miguel Beer - 2nd half

• Rockwell Land - 2nd half

Shares in companies being sold by the government:

• PNOC-EDC - July

• San Miguel Corp. - 2nd half

• Manila Electric Co. - 2nd half

Now I'm no expert in fundamentals, but a finance guy mentioned that when there's a lot of IPOs, it's when the market valuation is at a very high premium. When that happens, it usually signals a correction coming soon. Based on chart analysis of the PSEi, it does point to a correction soon. When fundamentals and technicals say the same thing, be wary!

There's talk that our year-end PHISIX target has been upgraded to 4,000 from 3,800. But did people take into account the IPOs? Like other things in life, too much of something causes people to become disinterested. Not only that, when there is the power of choice, it means not all IPOs will be successful, as can be seen with Aboitiz Power. Some people say it's because of the price. I think it's because of the proximity of Aboitiz Power's IPO to GMA. Wouldn't you choose GMA over AP? Then there's Vista Land and PNB, also timed very closely to the GMA IPO. I hope these two will fare better than AP.

There are so many market dynamics to dissect, but I think the supply glut of IPO is also one reason why our PHISIX hasn't been making any new highs recently. It's treading onwards on a sideways movement (now this is better than a major correction). Money is either still tied up with AP, or is being held to buy some major IPO's like GMA.

The market might drift a bit higher once GMA lists as most people will have liquidated their holdings by flipping it on the listing date. And I do hope that happens.

Then there's the timing of the IPOs. Most experienced traders say that during the ghost month, it's a lean month for stock trading. As the ghost month approaches and we have a multitude of IPOs, will that make this year's lean month better vs. last year? Abangan!

The good thing in all of this is that there will now be a wider choice of stocks to choose from. I just hope that the increase in number of investors also go up so that liquidity is increased and spread over more people than over the same number of traders.

Good luck to all the IPOs!