The February 13 Report

Advanced Happy Valentine's Day folks!

The stock market is about the future, and they've been telling us to have a grand and very red celebration for the Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day as early as January.

The volume for PSEi continues to be lackluster, and the ticker pace will bore you to sleep.

It's the attack of the basuras and they are making a comeback. Tread lightly!

I don't have much to report on because I've been juggling and multitasking so many things lately. All I can report on is that I was able to make a profitable day trade. OMG! Haha. I thought that would be an impossibility.

Good luck. Friday Madness (due to supposed rallies to take place) is going to leave an overhang. The Philippines should be run by children in the future. If these stupid people in politics are called adults, I think I'd rather be a child.

The February 8 Report

The index managed to stay afloat at 3,241.13 or +17 points or half a percentage point (0.56%) gain.

Volume remained Motorola RZR thin, with only 852,094,262, with value only at 1,191,067,00.

Total trades were at 5,917, with one new 52 week low - ORE at 2.34.

Aboitiz owned companies had a jumpstart due to their declaration of two cash dividends for Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV), and a share buyback program for not only this said company but other Aboitiz owned companies like Aboitiz Power (AP) & Union Bank (UBP).

This was the second day of the basura stocks, with the following stocks hogging the ticker space:

PEP
BRN (well fine, technically this isn't a basura stock)
GEO
NI
EIBA/B
SINO
TUNA

I'll stop here.

But that wasn't the surprise of the day. This is the surprise:



What the... no trade for TEL????

Now you can tell me this is one helluva bear market.

The one thing that's good, (and maybe bad as well), is that we managed to keep the index afloat with DOMESTIC buyers. The problem is there might be less and less of institutional investors. This creates the problem of a speculative market and this makes for even more difficult trading.
Remember, keep your gains tight and throw greed out the window.

Stocks to look at for the following week are the above mentioned stocks as well as the following:

PA - notice that there's always a big seller posted
BPC - bullish divergence between price and RSI chart
MUSX - same as PA's case

Good luck and have a pleasant weekend!

I hope the US market manages to close higher, if not, flat wouldn't be that bad either. The series of rate cuts and the tax stimulus package in the US will likely push inflation higher in the latter half of the year. They got the shot in the arm alright, but I think they used the wrong medicine. Stay safe.

The February 6 Report

Happy New (Rat) Year! Kung Hei Fat Choi! God knows I'm fat...

Is this the return of my daily stock market journal? Well, it depends if I'm busy or not. So you can take my posting today as I'm not busy.

The index ended at 3,228.84, down 54 points, or 1.67% from yesterday. Let's see our neighbor's performance:

Japan -4.07%
Hong Kong -5.40%
Shanghai -1.56%
Taiwan +2.03%
S. Korea +0.38%
Thailand -2.04%
India -2.81%

As you can see, our market actually fared better, relatively. This, despite looming political uncertainty in the coming weeks. Or, you can take it another way, that the market actually cheered JDV being booted out as the Speaker.

Our market was actually down but the intraday chart of the PSEi was amazing, recovering around the 1030 AM and then settling at 3,228. The market tomorrow should zoom up, and with the DOW going up (as of now anyways), there should be enough catalyst to push the index higher.

If the Gregorian New Year failed to excite investors and traders alike, then hopefully the first day tomorrow of the Lunar calendar year would provide people with a ray of hope.

However, foreign trading activity is quite the shocker, headlined by Deutsche net selling of -462M. What? Are they bailing out of the country or something? That value was enough to gobble up the net buying of other foreign brokers. He's a real killer right? Up there with UBS ang pera mo.

Take a look at the following stocks tomorrow:

EEI - be on guard though, 3rd day of its rise
CMT
MRC

Today was sort of the day of the third liners with TUNA, CMT, MRC, hogging the ticker.

Good luck tomorrow guys. Hopefully, clear signs of decoupling does happen. I have this bad feeling though, that 1st Qtr GDP will fall below expectations. Already, the Customs fell short of their revenue take for the first month of the year. The government has to spend mega bucks sometime between now and March if they want to the GDP numbers to look handsome.

Bloody February

February marks two of the reddest celebrations in the calendar year. One, Feb 14 marks hearts day, where everyone wears bloody red clothes and give plastic flowers and show fake emotions (haha). Two, it is during this month that the Chinese New Year is celebrated, and people who want to usher in good luck, would wear red from the shirt to the skirt to the socks to the shoes, and perhaps even their underwear.

Today, as of 2:19AM Philippine Time, the US Dow Jones has plopped, plunged, and plummeted by more than 280 points, thanks to this wonderful comment by a US Fed President. Against the backdrop of ugly technical charts, and even uglier (economic) fundamentals, the next big enemy is the very bad sentiment that every investor and trader have.

I attended an investor briefing lately, which was sponsored by Citibank, and their VP and Chief Economist has this (also) wonderful comment,

"Strengths are being downplayed and risks are being exaggerated."

CNBC, and other US media had already been saying the "R" word as early as the 3rd Quarter of 2007. Sometimes I think that these statements become self fulfilling prophecies. Like they say, a rumor stated a hundred times become fact. Since just about everyday, they were screaming recession, the US market has its blood dried up.

Onshore, the ouster of JDV has added to the specter of negative investor sentiment in the stock market. We were down by more than a percent, worse off than our Asian neighbors. Just what investors need right? What's more, this isn't the worst part yet. The worst part will come when JDV starts to open his mouth and accuse the current administration of this and that controversy.
2008 for the Chinese New Year marks the Year of the Earth Rat.

There certainly are a lot of rats out there in the field.

I previously wrote about a trading strategy called 3R. For this blog entry, there is a new 3R - Recession, Rumors and Rats. Rats!

Been Busy Report

I've been quite busy the past few days and feeling down the weather so I had to prioritize other tasks that I needed to do.

The market ended the week on a happier note, and people were still cheering the 7.3% GDP growth that the Philippines registered. The things to look at are:

- GSIS investment in the local stock market
- Foreign buying
- 1st Qtr Philippine GDP
- Dow Jones, decoupling? I still have my doubts.

Pepsi's IPO fizzled out and UBS never even supported them. All their IPOs have been splendid failures. Let me recount for you - VLL, AGI, hmm what else? Well I can't remember probably because a part of my brain doesn't want me to.

Good luck next week. I hope there'd the be some upside coming into the Chinese New Year. GEMINI was supposed to fly before then, not crash, which it has been doing splendidly as well, just like UBS.

I thought of a new catchphrase.

Sa GEMINI UBS ang pera mo!

Kung Hei Fat Choi!