The February 8 Report

The index managed to stay afloat at 3,241.13 or +17 points or half a percentage point (0.56%) gain.

Volume remained Motorola RZR thin, with only 852,094,262, with value only at 1,191,067,00.

Total trades were at 5,917, with one new 52 week low - ORE at 2.34.

Aboitiz owned companies had a jumpstart due to their declaration of two cash dividends for Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV), and a share buyback program for not only this said company but other Aboitiz owned companies like Aboitiz Power (AP) & Union Bank (UBP).

This was the second day of the basura stocks, with the following stocks hogging the ticker space:

PEP
BRN (well fine, technically this isn't a basura stock)
GEO
NI
EIBA/B
SINO
TUNA

I'll stop here.

But that wasn't the surprise of the day. This is the surprise:



What the... no trade for TEL????

Now you can tell me this is one helluva bear market.

The one thing that's good, (and maybe bad as well), is that we managed to keep the index afloat with DOMESTIC buyers. The problem is there might be less and less of institutional investors. This creates the problem of a speculative market and this makes for even more difficult trading.
Remember, keep your gains tight and throw greed out the window.

Stocks to look at for the following week are the above mentioned stocks as well as the following:

PA - notice that there's always a big seller posted
BPC - bullish divergence between price and RSI chart
MUSX - same as PA's case

Good luck and have a pleasant weekend!

I hope the US market manages to close higher, if not, flat wouldn't be that bad either. The series of rate cuts and the tax stimulus package in the US will likely push inflation higher in the latter half of the year. They got the shot in the arm alright, but I think they used the wrong medicine. Stay safe.

The February 6 Report

Happy New (Rat) Year! Kung Hei Fat Choi! God knows I'm fat...

Is this the return of my daily stock market journal? Well, it depends if I'm busy or not. So you can take my posting today as I'm not busy.

The index ended at 3,228.84, down 54 points, or 1.67% from yesterday. Let's see our neighbor's performance:

Japan -4.07%
Hong Kong -5.40%
Shanghai -1.56%
Taiwan +2.03%
S. Korea +0.38%
Thailand -2.04%
India -2.81%

As you can see, our market actually fared better, relatively. This, despite looming political uncertainty in the coming weeks. Or, you can take it another way, that the market actually cheered JDV being booted out as the Speaker.

Our market was actually down but the intraday chart of the PSEi was amazing, recovering around the 1030 AM and then settling at 3,228. The market tomorrow should zoom up, and with the DOW going up (as of now anyways), there should be enough catalyst to push the index higher.

If the Gregorian New Year failed to excite investors and traders alike, then hopefully the first day tomorrow of the Lunar calendar year would provide people with a ray of hope.

However, foreign trading activity is quite the shocker, headlined by Deutsche net selling of -462M. What? Are they bailing out of the country or something? That value was enough to gobble up the net buying of other foreign brokers. He's a real killer right? Up there with UBS ang pera mo.

Take a look at the following stocks tomorrow:

EEI - be on guard though, 3rd day of its rise
CMT
MRC

Today was sort of the day of the third liners with TUNA, CMT, MRC, hogging the ticker.

Good luck tomorrow guys. Hopefully, clear signs of decoupling does happen. I have this bad feeling though, that 1st Qtr GDP will fall below expectations. Already, the Customs fell short of their revenue take for the first month of the year. The government has to spend mega bucks sometime between now and March if they want to the GDP numbers to look handsome.

The January 16 Report

Congratulations to the holders of BRN, and BC. Those who were able to pick these up when I first mentioned this should be happier than the primarily bear infested local market. I sold my BC too soon. Instead of BRN, I focused on RLT, but it was just a day trade.

I have decided to cut my SSS report to just shorter entries. If I make a SSS report, then I'll just be cutting the wounds deeper trying to recall the day's (and just about everyday's) bloodbath.

This is certainly a bear market if you haven't already noticed, however, I am confident our market, even at its worst, will not be as bad as the market we had about a decade ago. The problem is in the United States, and although that has an effect on our local economy, we, and Asia in general has built up a mighty war chest called national reserves. In fact, our own currency is dubbed as Asia's best performing currency. This is a sharp turnaround from what we faced earlier in the century.

These are all fundamentals, albeit very basic at best. However, when the Technicals tell you don't buy, you want to find solace in the fundamental story, just so you can keep you sanity.

Sorry about yesterday, I was out. As I've said, I have focused my energies on other earning endeavors. So this is not a priority at the moment. :-)

Some stocks to take note of:

DFNN
PAX - it's been beaten black and blue and almost decomposing, but 5.80 is a very very strong support.

The January 3 Report

Market Commentary - January 3

My first report for the year! Happy New Year again folks, the bandwagontrader is back again. I'm retooling my blog so that my reports are short, crisp and to the point. I don't imagine having my fingers typing gazillion words everyday will be beneficial in the long run.

I woke up late today, by choice, given last night's horrid performance by the DOW. What a way to start the New Year! The Phisix, a slave to the DOW, fell and is hanging precariously at 3,500 - 3,501.38, down by 115 points or -3.2%. If the DOW continues its consistent nosedive, it's hello 3,300.

16 stocks up, 101 down, 30 spared. Total trades today were a lowly 6,542 with probably 90% selldowns.

New 52-wk high : none, and I'm not surprised
New 52 Wk low: AAA, BCB, TUNA

Active stock AC (-6.42%)
Top Gainer was CEU 6.40 (+16.36%)
Top Loser was PNC 4.10 (-29.31%)

Today's volume: 2,852,863,173
Value is 2,425,757,000 (amazing given the volume)

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU -176M
CLSA +64M
MACQ +79M
JPM +142M
UBS -48M
ABN -46M
DBP -3M
PEP -62M

Surprise surprise, net foreign BUYING? Confirm these tomorrow in the newspaper. Even if it's foreign buying, I wouldn't be surprised that this is start of the year window dressing.

STOCK...

Up On Cash.

STUCK

My ass to the chair and my eyes to the screen... doing nothing.

SUCK

All the blue cheaps.


Stay safe my friends. Don't go long unless these are mining stocks (which have been lackluster, even LC/B, PX, OV). Do continue to monitor gold stocks and oil stocks. Oil at 100? It's a major resistance, it'll probably correct so stocks like OV and OPM might be ripe for the bottom picking once oil corrects. OV broke out of a rut recently but OPM is near its resistance. Between the two, go for OV. This is not an endorsement though as these are very volatile times.

Look at the chart of DJIA the entire year of 2007 was like a major consolidation phase. 2008 - a continuation? Or a breakout of the consolidation?

The December 14 Report

Market Commentary - December 14

Wow. A day after I said that 3,600 was a strong support, today's performance was like a slap to my face. We started weak and there were no brakes for today's skid. We fell to hell at 3,538, down 87 points. At one point we were recovering from a 60 point deficit to just 50, but all hell broke loose at the 11AM mark.

Foreigners continued to dump local stocks like there was no tomorrow. Hello? There are still about two weeks left in the month. Pambihira, pagbigyan niyo naman kami! @#$#@%!

If we do not bounce back on Monday, hello 3,300, goodbye year end rally.

We didn't even track the DOW's performance, when they actually closed up 40 points. Intraday though, the DOW was crazy, winding up and down from a 100 point down to your close of 40 points up. Volatility is the name of the game, and skilled traders can still make money in this market. But like I said, if you want to trade, do a day trade. That's it. Preserve your capital.

Yogi bear is in, and Red Bull is out. I don't see anyone saying we'll be hitting 3,800 anymore. During the first half of the year, it was like the trumpet song of every analyst. PSEi will close at a new high of 4000. The only thing new this December, is a break in the tradition of the year end window dressing.

I am thinking, that on the fundamental side, our Peso's strength has been hurting foreign funds already. Our stocks are now more expensive to hold on to. And if next year, the dollar continues to fall, would it turn off foreign funds? Maybe that's why they're shifting their funds?

I'm injecting some side comments since I'll go nuts if I maintain my serious tone amidst this crazy market today.

23 stocks up (there were up stocks??), 106 down, 40 unchanged (or rather, SPARED). Total trades today were a lowly 9,618. (Oh and I am sure all these trades were cut losses)

New 52-wk high : MFIN (Wow meron pa palang nag 52 wk high, this is its second day here)
New 52 Wk low PAX (Poor Pax, this used to be BB's darling, now, it's in the cellar) (I thought there were many new 52 week lows what with the market today hehehe)

Active stock was still TEL 3,000 (-1.48%) (TEL is at the support already!!!!! Oh no!!!!!)
Top Gainer was MFIN 3.80 (+49%)
Top Loser was APR 3.30 (-24.29%) (The biggest losers are those who are in long positions. Hay. Kakalungkot ang market na ito)

Today's volume: 1,763,057,919
Value is 4,184,115,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses: (blast you blast you! di man lang dinahandahan....waaaaaaa)
DEU +59M
CLSA +25M
MACQ -234M (3rd selling day)
JPM +101M (this is a surprise, kanina akala ko panay selling)
UBS -472M (pambihira tinapon lang yata binili nung ilang araw)
ABN -133M (3rd selling day)
DBP -75M (parang UBS, inubos lang binili)
PEP -60 M (2nd selling day)

Looks like heavy selling. No other comments your honor.

STOCK

SMC still strong, but hovering near its resistance. A strong resistance by the way.

Well I won't be adding anymore here unless I want to get shot after the recommendation.

STUCK

Me.

SUCK

Ayala Corp and TEL. These two big weights in the PSEi are treading on dangerous grounds. If they continue their freefall,this will have a big impact on the PSEi , which in turn will make people even more Yogi bearish.

The market, the US recession (aminin na kasi!), this month, but hopefully not the entire 2008!

The December 13 Report

Market Commentary - December 13

Today's market was similar in likeness to the DOW as of late. We seesawed from 22 points up to just 4 points, then closed up 20 points again. There were only a few volume today, and the big headline was the successful bidding out of the Transco franchise.

The FED cut its rate by 25bps so the DOW closed down over 200 points the other night. Our market was not spared the same yesterday but surprised me with a strong and resilient market when we closed at 3,600. Folks, 3,600 looks to be a strong support. We've come from two bombing incidents, one coup attempt, and endless corruption scandals, but our market seems to have matured and has taken aside political noise.

We're already into week 2 of the last month of 2007. Analysts predicted a close of between 3,800 to 4,000 for the year, but that was back in Q1. Let's see how we close out the year. More than half of US economists are predicting that the US will head into a recession. I have a friend who works in a call center and she told me that she's having difficulty closing some sales. That's got me worried.

I hope Chairman Fitz Aclan's theory of a decoupling of Asian equities from the US would happen. Otherwise, we'll see strong signs of bearishness heading into Q1 2008.

Today's volume was lackadaisical, to say the least.

55 stocks up, 55 down, 65 unchanged. Total trades today were a lowly 7,855. Two new 52-wk high : CA. MFIN. 52 Wk low PRIM, TELL, TELM

Active stock was still SCC 43.00 (+07.5%)
Top Gainer was BRN 2.12 (+49.3%). More on this later.
Top Loser was AB 9.00 (-18.18%) that's for Atok-Big Wedge Company "A". I really think the name sounds funny, what with the wedge and all.

Today's volume: 1,374,742,485
Value is 4,757,599,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +61M
CLSA -128M (2nd selling day)
MACQ -65M (2nd selling day)
JPM -64M (2nd selling day)
UBS +127M (2nd buying day)
ABN -130M (2nd selling day)
DBP +36M (2nd buying day)
PEP -10 M

Foreign Selling here. UBS still buying TEL, BPC. They've switched to buying GLO and AC (after selling it Tuesday). And also bought some shares of PLTL.


STOCK

I'm still serious - It's advisable to stay liquid for now. If you plan to trade, make a day trade.

I was able to day trade RLT today.

BRN didn't even try to open higher, it just zoomed up to ceiling on opening. All shares that were related to it somehow, moved - RLT, V (my suspicion). PX might also move tomorrow. Check it out. However the biggest surprise for me is SMC. The loser in the Transco bid looked as if they were the ones who won.

I made a list of stocks to put on the radar last week. So far, here's the scorecard:

MUSX - successfully traded. Bought 2.08 sold 2.14. Small gain, but a gain is a gain.
DIZ - successfully traded. Day traded yesterday.
DFNN - Successfully daytraded Wednesday
Lopez Stocks - still on my radar. I'm hot on BPC. It's just waiting for MER to move.
PX - looks like an ascending triangle. Fed rate cut, gold hedge, BRN play.
GEO/MIC - GEO sucks, but MIC is still strong at 6.90.

Two lousy IPOs - SPH and T are having a short consolidation phase. Watch where they will move to next.

Look at BRN tomorrow if it still goes up ceiling. The chart looks so risky I can't recommend this. But look to tsupita on RLT or V.

LR - stock that broke out today. Monitor this tomorrow.

STUCK

All the other stucks not worth mentioning here. Blue cheaps are still affiliated with this list.

SUCK

I recant on CMT. From what I'm seeing , foreigners are dumping property stocks. I also saw EEI being dumped. CMT is not the stock to be in right now.

Some Angping stocks like GEO, DIZ.