December 27

My PC as earlier noted, died on me, circa December 19 or thereabouts. It's been given a new lease on life recently, but the internet is still down due to some virus.

I have no idea what is happening to the market. I have lost my drive to look at charts, and look at the newspaper, at the very least. My only source of news is my broker, whom I am happy to say, has been a good friend of mine.

All I know is that the ticker moves in a snail pace, and that volumes are as razor thin as the Motorola RZR.

I hope you all had a Merry Christmas! We're having a Santa Claus rally and for people who've been in the market for some time already, I am sure you've already saw this as a chance to lighten your positions, if not entirely exit them.

I hope that in the new year, the stock market bull run will be revived, although some how I feel that won't happen. There'll be rallies, but there'll be no bull runs, we've been at it for quite sometime already. So folks, I hope you've stashed away savings, and also have other sources of income.

Ciao for now.

No Post

I have no post because one day after I lost internet connection, my PC died on me.

Dow is up 200 points, so I hope this spills over til the last trading day.

See you when I have my PC back.

No Internet. No Report.

What a lovely day. People say you should stop and smell the roses, in Manila, the only thing you can smell is the stench of pollution.

Today, I had no internet. I feel that a Tech ghost haunted me today, because even in the internet station, pambihira, nawalan din ako ng internet for some time! @#$@#$@#$#@$@#$@#$

In any case, there's not much to report on the stock market anyways.

Yesterday, the trading got HALTED because of a glitch in the PSE's system. I guess the backyardness of the Philippines span from P to P, i.e. PLDT to PSE. Heck even the Philippines.

Today, well the best song for those in long positions: Killing me softly
For those who got whipsawed last week: Holding back the years, (sing the song and just replace years with tears).

That is all for today. Tomorrow, there might be some tech rebound what with the bottom picking and recovery we saw in the market and selected blue cheap issues.

Updated Blogroll

I realized I forgot to link up with other fellow Absolute Traders.

If I still don't have your blog link, just let me know and I'll gladly hook it up here.

Good luck next week traders!

The December 14 Report

Market Commentary - December 14

Wow. A day after I said that 3,600 was a strong support, today's performance was like a slap to my face. We started weak and there were no brakes for today's skid. We fell to hell at 3,538, down 87 points. At one point we were recovering from a 60 point deficit to just 50, but all hell broke loose at the 11AM mark.

Foreigners continued to dump local stocks like there was no tomorrow. Hello? There are still about two weeks left in the month. Pambihira, pagbigyan niyo naman kami! @#$#@%!

If we do not bounce back on Monday, hello 3,300, goodbye year end rally.

We didn't even track the DOW's performance, when they actually closed up 40 points. Intraday though, the DOW was crazy, winding up and down from a 100 point down to your close of 40 points up. Volatility is the name of the game, and skilled traders can still make money in this market. But like I said, if you want to trade, do a day trade. That's it. Preserve your capital.

Yogi bear is in, and Red Bull is out. I don't see anyone saying we'll be hitting 3,800 anymore. During the first half of the year, it was like the trumpet song of every analyst. PSEi will close at a new high of 4000. The only thing new this December, is a break in the tradition of the year end window dressing.

I am thinking, that on the fundamental side, our Peso's strength has been hurting foreign funds already. Our stocks are now more expensive to hold on to. And if next year, the dollar continues to fall, would it turn off foreign funds? Maybe that's why they're shifting their funds?

I'm injecting some side comments since I'll go nuts if I maintain my serious tone amidst this crazy market today.

23 stocks up (there were up stocks??), 106 down, 40 unchanged (or rather, SPARED). Total trades today were a lowly 9,618. (Oh and I am sure all these trades were cut losses)

New 52-wk high : MFIN (Wow meron pa palang nag 52 wk high, this is its second day here)
New 52 Wk low PAX (Poor Pax, this used to be BB's darling, now, it's in the cellar) (I thought there were many new 52 week lows what with the market today hehehe)

Active stock was still TEL 3,000 (-1.48%) (TEL is at the support already!!!!! Oh no!!!!!)
Top Gainer was MFIN 3.80 (+49%)
Top Loser was APR 3.30 (-24.29%) (The biggest losers are those who are in long positions. Hay. Kakalungkot ang market na ito)

Today's volume: 1,763,057,919
Value is 4,184,115,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses: (blast you blast you! di man lang dinahandahan....waaaaaaa)
DEU +59M
CLSA +25M
MACQ -234M (3rd selling day)
JPM +101M (this is a surprise, kanina akala ko panay selling)
UBS -472M (pambihira tinapon lang yata binili nung ilang araw)
ABN -133M (3rd selling day)
DBP -75M (parang UBS, inubos lang binili)
PEP -60 M (2nd selling day)

Looks like heavy selling. No other comments your honor.

STOCK

SMC still strong, but hovering near its resistance. A strong resistance by the way.

Well I won't be adding anymore here unless I want to get shot after the recommendation.

STUCK

Me.

SUCK

Ayala Corp and TEL. These two big weights in the PSEi are treading on dangerous grounds. If they continue their freefall,this will have a big impact on the PSEi , which in turn will make people even more Yogi bearish.

The market, the US recession (aminin na kasi!), this month, but hopefully not the entire 2008!

The December 13 Report

Market Commentary - December 13

Today's market was similar in likeness to the DOW as of late. We seesawed from 22 points up to just 4 points, then closed up 20 points again. There were only a few volume today, and the big headline was the successful bidding out of the Transco franchise.

The FED cut its rate by 25bps so the DOW closed down over 200 points the other night. Our market was not spared the same yesterday but surprised me with a strong and resilient market when we closed at 3,600. Folks, 3,600 looks to be a strong support. We've come from two bombing incidents, one coup attempt, and endless corruption scandals, but our market seems to have matured and has taken aside political noise.

We're already into week 2 of the last month of 2007. Analysts predicted a close of between 3,800 to 4,000 for the year, but that was back in Q1. Let's see how we close out the year. More than half of US economists are predicting that the US will head into a recession. I have a friend who works in a call center and she told me that she's having difficulty closing some sales. That's got me worried.

I hope Chairman Fitz Aclan's theory of a decoupling of Asian equities from the US would happen. Otherwise, we'll see strong signs of bearishness heading into Q1 2008.

Today's volume was lackadaisical, to say the least.

55 stocks up, 55 down, 65 unchanged. Total trades today were a lowly 7,855. Two new 52-wk high : CA. MFIN. 52 Wk low PRIM, TELL, TELM

Active stock was still SCC 43.00 (+07.5%)
Top Gainer was BRN 2.12 (+49.3%). More on this later.
Top Loser was AB 9.00 (-18.18%) that's for Atok-Big Wedge Company "A". I really think the name sounds funny, what with the wedge and all.

Today's volume: 1,374,742,485
Value is 4,757,599,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +61M
CLSA -128M (2nd selling day)
MACQ -65M (2nd selling day)
JPM -64M (2nd selling day)
UBS +127M (2nd buying day)
ABN -130M (2nd selling day)
DBP +36M (2nd buying day)
PEP -10 M

Foreign Selling here. UBS still buying TEL, BPC. They've switched to buying GLO and AC (after selling it Tuesday). And also bought some shares of PLTL.


STOCK

I'm still serious - It's advisable to stay liquid for now. If you plan to trade, make a day trade.

I was able to day trade RLT today.

BRN didn't even try to open higher, it just zoomed up to ceiling on opening. All shares that were related to it somehow, moved - RLT, V (my suspicion). PX might also move tomorrow. Check it out. However the biggest surprise for me is SMC. The loser in the Transco bid looked as if they were the ones who won.

I made a list of stocks to put on the radar last week. So far, here's the scorecard:

MUSX - successfully traded. Bought 2.08 sold 2.14. Small gain, but a gain is a gain.
DIZ - successfully traded. Day traded yesterday.
DFNN - Successfully daytraded Wednesday
Lopez Stocks - still on my radar. I'm hot on BPC. It's just waiting for MER to move.
PX - looks like an ascending triangle. Fed rate cut, gold hedge, BRN play.
GEO/MIC - GEO sucks, but MIC is still strong at 6.90.

Two lousy IPOs - SPH and T are having a short consolidation phase. Watch where they will move to next.

Look at BRN tomorrow if it still goes up ceiling. The chart looks so risky I can't recommend this. But look to tsupita on RLT or V.

LR - stock that broke out today. Monitor this tomorrow.

STUCK

All the other stucks not worth mentioning here. Blue cheaps are still affiliated with this list.

SUCK

I recant on CMT. From what I'm seeing , foreigners are dumping property stocks. I also saw EEI being dumped. CMT is not the stock to be in right now.

Some Angping stocks like GEO, DIZ.

Recommendation, No December 12 Report

NEWS FLASH

Apologies folks, I was out today for a despedida party for a friend. Therefore, I don't have any report to make. However, I saw something interesting and I just want to publish it here.

Anyway, when I got back I was checking some emails from hotmail and after logging off, this news from MSN came out as a shocker for me. SMC lost the Transco bid to the group that comprises among others, Monte Oro Grid. Monte Oro Grid is substantially held by A. Brown, otherwise known as BRN in the PSE ticker. RLT has a diluted share in A. Brown.

My recommendation for tomorrow, put these two in your radar. These could fly. Among the two, RLT has a double bottom, RLT could retrace back to 0.60. As for BRN, I'm seeing a big symmetrical triangle, however, it's not perfect as the two tops (Sometime July and October) are too far off.

BRN is a no brainer buy, while RLT is a chart buy with this catalyst. Abangan bukas.

The December 11 Report

Market Commentary - December 11

On a day that the US went up triple digits, we were DOWN by -3 points to settle at 3,672. Two views - we recently tested the 3,700 level so this pullback could be good as we don't want to breakaway from that level and just zoom up. Another view is that the [expected] FED is already priced in to the markets.

If the FED cuts by 25 bps, then we will probably see a consolidation, then kaput! Market kisses us bye bye. If they make it 50, then there'll be some more legs to the exhausted bull.

The bright side of this is that at one point we were down by 22 points, and we settled at less than that, as mentioned earlier. The index is still above 3,600.

The PSEi should review the index as TEL carries such a big load, that at a correction, it already brings down the market. A big reason why the index recovered today is that TEL recovered from an intraday low of 3,020. Imagine, TEL represents 26% of the index!!!

What with the flat market, as expected up, down and unchanged counters were almost even.

57 stocks up, 54 down, 59 unchanged. Total trades today were a lowly 7,889. One new 52-wk high : CA. 52 Wk low CAT.

Active stock was still TEL 3,050.00 (+0.49%)
Top Gainer was CA 29.00 (+48.72%), and no I don't recommend this. I mean just 4 trades???
Top Loser was CAT 3.45 (-39.71%)

Today's volume: 1,592,966,777
Value is 3,630,618,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU -40M
CLSA -138M
MACQ -164M
JPM -33M
UBS +178M
ABN -265M
DBP +2.6M
PEP +14M

Foreign Selling here. UBS bought TEL, VLL, BPC, LCB, and ALI while they sold FLI, GLO, FGEN, AC and DMC.

STOCK

It's advisable to stay liquid for now. If you plan to trade, make a day trade.

I was able to day trade CYBR today.

PA - looks to be near the support of 0.225 and 0.23. Those who bought yesterday have a 2% gain from yesterday's close of 0.23.

PEP lied low yesterday while it recovered today at 1.42. This could fly tomorrow if it doesn't fall back to the 1.34++ low levels.

I made a list of stocks to put on the radar last week. So far, here's the scorecard:

MUSX - successfully traded. Bought 2.08 sold 2.14. Small gain, but a gain is a gain.
DIZ - successfully traded. Day traded yesterday.
DFNN - for monitoring as it is suspended.
Lopez Stocks - still on my radar. I'm hot on BPC. It's just waiting for MER to move.
PX - looks like an ascending triangle. If the FED cuts rates, and the dollar falls, expect gold
to go up. Historically, PX is the leading stock when it comes to having a gold play
GEO/MIC - still on my radar. If the FED cuts 50 points and our market responds positively,
these two could fly as they have a high correlation to the market's performance.

Also keep a close watch on CMT. It's now on a sideways movement. Two lousy IPOs - SPH and T made major moves today and are going up from a bottom.

STUCK

TBGI. Have some on stuck. If it still doesn't move this week, good riddance.
TBGI : Talagang Babay at goodbye, ipit!

AT. Welcome back to the list.

SUCK

The PSEi. Analysts, and including myself, thought that we'd track the DOW. So far, it has been anything but.

The December 7 Report

Market Commentary

Our market ended the week on a dull note, notching 11 points to close at 3,745. However, this is not to belittle this week's performance. Coming into this week, the market closed at 3,578, thanks to Trillianes and his adventurous friends. We closed this week up by 167 points or 4.7%. Not bad.

I just wonder what next week holds for us since a lot of people were saying we'd reach 3,800 by year end. Are people saying that we just have 55 points to go then we go crashing down back to earth?

At one point our market was "down" 169 points. I say "down" with the quotation marks because it was due to a technical glitch. Some people probably thought we crashed and thus eroded today's gains to whittle it down to 11. This blog author was also curious why that happened when TEL, and other big caps were not in the red majorly.

Next week is the big Fed meeting, followed by our own local BSP. On to the field notes:

53 stocks up, 60 down, 53 unchanged. Total trades today were 11,575. One new 52-wk high : BC.

For the PSEi, MBT led the way while ALI succumbed to what we might say, profit taking.

Active stock was still TEL 3,120.00 (-0.16%)
Top Gainer was MRC 0.63 (+14.55%)
Top Loser was JTH 30.00 (-20%) (Yesterday, this was the top gainer)

Today's volume: 1,849,206,658
Value is 4,820,524,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU +86M
CLSA +63M
MACQ +221M
JPM -154M
UBS -169M
ABN +20M
DBP -2M
PEP -37M

Looks like it's still net foreign buying! This is certainly good news and will be a good omen for the ff. week.

STOCK

LC and LCB - 0.54 (-1.82%), 0.58 (-1.69%). They are still near their highs, double top? Monitor this on Monday it could potentially breakout.

PA - Downhill trend confirmed, it closed at 0.235 (-4.08%), on an up market day, this one is down. Bearish in my book, at least in the next few days.

AJO - Weekend factored. It closed weaker by -3.57% to settle at 0.135. Not much trading - 71 trades, light volume compared to yesterday. Watch out for this again on Monday.

PEP. Well it rested today, and it's also probably due to the weekend factor. Closed at 1.42 (-4.05%). Oh, and DBP-Daiwa bought 500,000 shares at 1.42. They also bought some shares yesterday. Foreign players? Abangan sa Lunes.

Stocks to watch out for next week - MUSX, DFNN, Lopez Stocks, DIZ, PX, GEO, MIC. If you have charting software try looking at all of them except MUSX. I just have a feeling MUSX would go up because some people will average down, which could push the price up a bit.

STUCK

TBGI.

AT. Nuff said. But is the last 4 trading days a bullish flag pattern? Abangan din ito sa Lunes.

SUCK

I didn't have any day trades today. I almost dipped my hands into MUSX. Good thing I didn't.

Happy weekend! And Good Luck to us in December.

The December 6 Report

Market Commentary

Yowza! Our market is burning hot! We've breached 3,700 to settle at 3,733. We ended the day 85 points up (+2.34%). However this was a bit toned down as we were actually up a hundred points in mid-trading day. I hope the market doesn't burn out soon, but a healthy correction is always a welcome treat. It allows people to get in again. Bullish again? Or Bull shit?

Just be on your toes. Remember, we're not in a bull market anymore. We've just gone past the consolidation phase so it remains to be seen if this is going to be another sustained bull run.

I'm not going to ruin the moment though so let's get down to it:

77 stocks up, 29 down, 60 unchanged. Total trades today were 12,962. (I'll be including this detail from now on.). Two new 52-wk highs were PEP and MWC. Yesterday about the same number of stocks were up, so it's probable that today's UP shares were the same as yesterday's.

The ff boosted the index today: TEL, AC, BPI and of course MER. Do you know that MER had total trades of 931???? Compare that with PEP: 698, MWC: 171. They're a study in contrast.

Active stock was still ALI 16.50 (+1.54%)
Top Gainer was JTH 37.50 (+50%)
Top Loser was VVT 1.20 (-40%)

Today's volume: 3,312,763,186
Value is 5,203,024,000

* All values are based from Technistock.

Foreign Houses:
DEU -251M (KJ!!!!!!!!!!!!)
CLSA +58M
MACQ +170M
JPM +183M
UBS +39M
ABN +80M
DBP -78M
PEP -11M

Net foreign buying! Are happy days back? Hope so! Even for just the next [less than] 20 trading days!

STOCK

Well, let's look at our observation of LC yesterday. LC closed at 0.55, while B shares closed at 0.59. Deutsche bought a lot of both shares at the run off. Hold your buying decision on this, and if you've already bought in earlier, might be good to unload and monitor it with your cash hoard.

PA - well it corrected weaker to 0.245. RSI divergence confirmation? We'll see tomorrow if the this is the start of a downhill trend.

AJO retraced some of its gains to fall to an intraday low of 0.13. However there the bulls on this stock came roaring back and caused it to close flat. Tomorrow should be an interesting day for this stock. Weekend factor or bullish factor? Abangan!

PEP. It did a new 52 week high. Trading books around will tell you this is a good sign.

STUCK

TBGI. I bought some shares. I'm just intrigued this hasn't fallen prey to previous weeks' dog days. Let's see if this flies. I only bought a negligible amount of shares. Just testing it out.

AT. Nuff said.

SUCK

VLL. On a day that the market was up 2%, VLL decides to close flat.

Lopez stocks might take a breather soon, be wary.

The December 5, 2007 Report

Market Commentary

Well I'll be dam'd, despite the double digit correction in the US Dow last night we are up, albeit very slightly, by 4 points. We settled at 3,468. It's not much, but it's amazing how our market recovered from an intraday low of being -25 points down. The intra day PSEi chart looked like an inverted head and shoulders. Boolish ito! Hopefully the US goes up tonight.

77 stocks were up with 32 counters down. 52 remain unchanged.

Top active stock was ALI, top gainer was Aries Prime (Who?, ticker APR) and top loser was Manila Bulletin (MB). Lopez stocks were the rulers today with FPH, FGEN, MER and BPC up in tandem with each other.

Inflation for November was higher than expected, which could dampen hopes for a local interest rate cut. However in my opinion, November and December historically have a higher inflation rate. It's not surprising. My stance is that the BSP will still cut its rate, following the move from the US.

Third day of the first week of December, we're still up, though marginally. We'll see if the buying momentum carries us towards a strong first week of December by Friday. Hopefully it does so Absolute Traders can have a great Christmas Party! Whooah!

Foreign Houses:
DEU -93M
CLSA +8M
MACQ -144M
JPM +26M
UBS -57M
ABN +0.424M
DBP -45M
PEP -125M

Looks like it's still net foreign selling. Hmm, what are you selling foreigners?

BPI, SM, MWC, BDO - Deutsche
TEL, MER - JPMorgan
VLL, SMPH, AC, GLO - UBS

Well everybody's shifting their portfolios.

STOCK

LC is retesting its resistance of 0.54, and is precariously near its 1 year high of 0.56. Tomorrow should be interesting. LCB is also retesting its high.

PA closed weaker today at 0.25, but still within its tight range. Before, tsupiteros could play it with one fluc per 0.005. Now it's a bit more difficult, and expensive. So a breakout from 0.26 and eventually into 0.27 could earn it a tag of "STRONG BUY". Just be cautious as there seems to be an RSI divergence. *Jitters*

AJO is also an interesting trading play. It was up 12% today. After a consolidation period, it's now broke out of its sideways pattern. Let's see if tomorrow will be a continuation of its bullish movement.

VLL. RSI going up. Price chart going up with a breakout today. Initial target of Php 6.00 as it is a strong resistance point.

Other Stocks:

EDC is now at 7.10. Remember, FGEN bought this at 9.00. I didn't say this was a trading buy :p
ELI a rights offering at Php 1.00, 1 for 3 shares held. It's now at 0.87. Let's see if this would continue tomorrow.
OV. I don't have news on this, but this could be a solid long play.
FGEN. We was right, it's now back up at 59.00. It's now on 62.00 per share! Congratulations for those who were patient. And also with FPH! Wow. Congratulations to the bottom pickers last week hehe.

* I was able to daytrade VLL. Hehe. I almost thought I wouldn't be able to sell today at 5.50. It was really amazing, with about 2-5 seconds left to closing time, Asiasec bought the shares up to 5.60! Hope for another round tomorrow!

STUCK

GEO. Is this an ascending triangle?

SUCK

The dollar, falling to lows yet again. Better sell the dollars folks. If you want to hold dollars, buy it next year or when the chart is showing signs of a rebound.

The December 3, 2007

Market Commentary

Time flies when you're enjoying what you're doing. It's already December and there are only fewer than 20 trading days left in 07. Up or down who can say? The point is, you have to make the most of what opportunity is left in the year. If the US heads into recession (which is starting to be highly likely), this will not bode well for equities.

The markets are likely to head north this week with an expectation of another rate cut from the FED on its last meeting for the year. I've seen a news article today in the Inquirer that mentions that our own BSP would likely follow suit to protect the peso. The BSP's defense of the peso has put them in the red this year. The PSEi chart points to a stronger close this week. We might have a year end bang after all. But alas, it may also be the time to get out of the market and watch from the sidelines.

After a knee jerk reaction last week to a coup attempt the markets today recovered albeit with subdued volume from the 29th. We were up at one point close to 60, but we closed lower (intraday, but up) +48 points (1.35%). We are now above 3,600. All sectors were up with the exception of Services - primarily due to TEL. The best indicator of a bull market is that all sectors are up. Hopefully this blip won't mean anything for the week.

We seem to be heading towards a bullish week this week, based on the PSEi chart. Sorry folks, can't post it here. Even if I did, the image quality would look as beautiful as say, crap.

Foreign Houses:
From the Report of PSEi, we were net foreign selling today.
DEU -691M
CLSA -46M
MACQ +308M
JPM +60M
UBS -201M
ABN +144M
DBP -12M
PEP -244M

I am adding PEP here. PEP is considered a foreign broker as I have realized lately.

STOCK

Even though gold corrected majorly, LC was up 10% , 9% for the A and B shares, respectively. APX was up relatively lower by +3.08%. PX was up only 1%.

Surprise, surprise, PA is up to 0.26, and near the resistance of 0.27. If it breaks out, the near term target is somewhere in the 0.30 - 0.37 range. Watch out for this guys.

Other Stocks:

EDC is now at 7.10. Remember, FGEN bought this at 9.00
ELI a rights offering at Php 1.00, 1 for 3 shares held.
OV. I don't have news on this, but this could be a solid long play.
FGEN. We was right, it's now back up at 59.00.
Other beneficiaries would likely be FPH. FPH is a good play, the price chart is rising, RSI is rising. However, the MACD is telling us that this could only be a rally, not a true rebound.
* EDC, ELI, OV, FGEN and FPH are not trading buys. If you have been in the market for about 3-6 months, you will realize that basura stocks are better suited for traders.

STUCK

It's a good thing the PSEi wasn't.

SUCK

AGI. On a day that MEG went up, its mother company fell.